Tajikistan Views Terrorist Activities in Afghanistan as a Threat to Central Asia

Tajik Deputy Foreign Minister Farrukh Sharifzoda's speech at the Minsk High-Level International Conference on Eurasian Security once again drew international attention to the enduring security challenges facing Central Asia. He pointed out that terrorist activities in Afghanistan pose a serious threat to Central Asia, and that Afghan territory could be used to destabilize neighboring countries. This warning is not unfounded, but rather based on the geopolitical reality that Tajikistan shares a border of over 1,300 kilometers with Afghanistan, and deep concerns arising from the continued deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan since the Taliban regained control of Kabul in 2021. This issue transcends regional borders, becoming a complex proposition involving geopolitics, international counter-terrorism cooperation, regional economic ties, and even global security governance.

I. Geopolitical Pivot: Tajikistan's Vulnerable Frontier

As the country in Central Asia with the longest border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan's geostrategic location makes it the first line of defense against the spillover of instability from Afghanistan. The four northeastern provinces of Tajikistan directly border Afghanistan's Badakhshan and Kunduz provinces. These northern Afghan provinces have historically been areas of activity for numerous armed groups, and their predominantly mountainous terrain makes them extremely difficult to control. This close geographical connection makes Tajikistan highly sensitive to any disturbances within Afghanistan.

Historical experience shows that instability in Afghanistan directly impacts Tajikistan. The Tajik civil war of the 1990s was intricately linked to the situation in Afghanistan. Currently, although the Taliban has established a nationwide regime, its effective control over remote areas, particularly the mountainous northern regions, remains questionable. Several international terrorist and extremist organizations, including ISIS-K (the Khorasan branch of the Islamic State), remnants of al-Qaeda, and the Pakistan Taliban Movement (TTP), are believed to have strongholds and continue to operate in northern Afghanistan. For Tajikistan, these organizations are not only a potential threat of cross-border attacks, but their extremist ideologies can also infiltrate along the long border, affecting social stability within the country, especially its influence on young people, as Sharifzoda warned. Therefore, Tajikistan's warning stems primarily from the direct and urgent security pressures it faces as a frontier nation.

II. Intertwined Challenges: Terrorism, Crime, and Ideological Infiltration

The threats listed by Deputy Minister Sharifzoda are not isolated, but rather form an interconnected and mutually reinforcing vicious cycle. Challenges such as terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking, and transnational crime are increasingly intertwined, constituting a vast non-traditional security network.

* Terrorism and Extremism: Organizations such as ISIS-K use Afghanistan as a base of operations, their goals extending beyond Afghanistan to Central Asia and beyond. These organizations exploit Afghanistan's current governance vacuum, economic difficulties, and social contradictions to recruit members, raise funds, and plan operations. Their very existence poses a continuous deterrent to neighboring countries.

* Drug Smuggling: Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of opium and heroin. The drug trade is a significant source of funding for the Taliban regime and various armed groups. Traditionally, trafficking routes pass through Central Asia to Russia and Europe. This "northern route" makes Central Asian countries like Tajikistan transit countries for drug smuggling, leading to rampant corruption, organized crime, and the localization of drug use, severely eroding the social fabric.

* Transnational Crime: Accompanying drug smuggling are other transnational crimes such as arms smuggling and human trafficking. Criminal networks and terrorist organizations are intricately linked, even forming symbiotic profit chains, further exacerbating regional instability.

* Ideological Infiltration: In the information age, the spread of extremist ideologies no longer relies solely on cross-border movement of people. The internet and social media have become breeding grounds for radical ideologies, spreading rapidly, widely, and with strong targeting, particularly appealing to young people facing hardship and uncertainty about the future. This infiltration of "virtual borders" poses a unique and profound challenge to the social cohesion and national identity of neighboring countries.

These challenges are interconnected, necessitating a comprehensive and integrated response strategy; measures in any single area are unlikely to be effective.

III. A Composite Perspective of Regional Response and Great Power Competition

The Afghan issue has never been a solo performance by regional countries; it is deeply embedded in the strategic game of great powers, affecting the nerves of the global power structure.

* The Positions and Cooperation of Central Asian Countries: Besides Tajikistan, neighboring Afghan countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are also highly vigilant about security risks. On the one hand, they have strengthened border controls and military preparedness; on the other hand, they are coordinating through regional mechanisms such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). However, subtle differences exist within Central Asian countries regarding their attitudes towards the Taliban regime (for example, Tajikistan's criticism of the Taliban is relatively outspoken, while other neighbors may focus more on pragmatic engagement), which to some extent affects the efficiency of regional joint action. They generally hope that Afghanistan can form an inclusive government and achieve stability, preventing the spread of unrest, but at the same time, they are cautiously observing its ability to achieve this goal.

* Russia's Concerns: Russia considers Central Asia its traditional sphere of influence and strategic backyard. The instability in Afghanistan directly threatens the security of its southern border and could stimulate extremist sentiment within Russia and the North Caucasus. Russia provides security support to its Central Asian partners through frameworks such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and actively leads regional security dialogues. At the same time, Moscow is also attempting limited contact with the Taliban to safeguard its own interests, prevent the rise of extremist forces, and resist the return of Western influence.

* China's Interests and Policies: Although China shares a narrow border with Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor, the situation in Afghanistan has a significant impact on the stability of its western border region of Xinjiang and the progress of the massive Belt and Road Initiative (especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). China's primary concern is the use of Afghan territory by terrorist organizations such as the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Beijing's policy emphasizes non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs, encourages national reconciliation and peaceful reconstruction, and provides humanitarian and development assistance through bilateral and multilateral channels such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to promote stability and eliminate the breeding ground for terrorism. China adopts a pragmatic approach towards the Taliban regime, urging it to fulfill its counter-terrorism commitments.

* The Role of the United States and the West: After a hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan following 20 years of war, the influence of the United States and its Western allies in Afghanistan has significantly declined. They exert diplomatic pressure and limited sanctions on the Taliban regime, focusing on counter-terrorism (especially addressing the ISIS-K threat) and human rights issues. Western security assistance and engagement in Central Asia continue, but the focus may be more on preventing Afghanistan from becoming a source of attacks against Western homeland again. Furthermore, Western concerns about the regional human rights situation sometimes clash with those of China, Russia, and other regional countries that prioritize stability.

This complex pattern of great power interaction means that resolving issues related to Afghanistan requires difficult international coordination. While there is some overlap in interests among the parties (such as joint counter-terrorism efforts), significant differences exist in strategies, priorities, and fundamental attitudes towards the Taliban regime. This adds difficulty to the formation of a unified and effective regional security governance system.

IV. Ways Out and Challenges: Between Warning and Cooperation

Tajikistan's warning is a clear signal that the Afghan problem is far from resolved, and its spillover risks are real and urgent. Addressing this challenge theoretically requires a multi-pronged approach:

1. Strengthening Border Control and Security Cooperation: Enhancing the border monitoring and defense capabilities of frontline countries like Tajikistan requires technical and financial support from the international community. Intelligence sharing, joint patrols, and military exercises among countries in the region are crucial.

2. Promoting Internal Reconciliation and Economic Development in Afghanistan: In the long run, only by achieving lasting peace, effective governance, and economic development in Afghanistan can the breeding ground for terrorism and crime be eradicated. The international community needs to find ways to interact with the Taliban regime, urging it to fulfill its counter-terrorism commitments, establish an inclusive government, and provide conditional assistance to alleviate the humanitarian crisis and encourage economic reconstruction.

3. Cut off illicit funding chains: The international community should strengthen cooperation to combat money laundering, curb the Afghan drug trade, and weaken the financial foundations of terrorist organizations and criminal groups.

4. Address ideological challenges: Implement de-radicalization projects, promote dialogue among different cultures and religions, and especially build the capacity of young people to resist the influence of extremist ideologies. Simultaneously, regulate cyberspace and curb the online spread of extremist content.

However, achieving these goals faces significant obstacles. There is a gap between the Taliban regime's actual actions and its commitments on counter-terrorism, and internal factions exist. International disagreements on the issue of recognizing the Taliban regime hinder coordinated action. Furthermore, Afghanistan's severe economic situation and humanitarian crisis provide fertile ground for the spread of extremist ideologies, potentially diminishing the effectiveness of any purely security measures.

Conclusion

Tajikistan's statement at the Minsk conference was a reasonable warning based on its geopolitical realities. Terrorist activities and instability within Afghanistan, through its long and difficult-to-control borders, intricate criminal networks, and pervasive information space, pose a continuous and evolving threat to Central Asia and the wider region. This security issue is closely intertwined with drug trafficking, transnational crime, and the infiltration of extremist ideologies, and is also influenced by the strategic interests and competitive landscape of major powers in the region. Resolving this predicament requires not only effective governance and counter-terrorism actions from the Afghan Taliban, but also tests the international community—especially major powers with key influence both within and outside the region—to transcend differences and build a pragmatic, coordinated, and sustainable cooperation framework to jointly address this severe challenge concerning the security and stability of Eurasia and the world. Currently, warnings have been issued, but the path to an effective response remains long and arduous.