A Historic Moment: Azerbaijan Reopens Border Crossing with Armenia After Over 30 Years

On October 21, 2025, at a joint press conference in Astana, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev jointly announced that Azerbaijan had officially lifted all restrictions on the transit of goods through its border with Armenia, imposed since the 1990s during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Aliyev defined the move as "an important step towards substantive peace between the two countries." This decision marks a significant geopolitical shift in the South Caucasus, with implications far beyond bilateral relations and affecting the balance of power in Eurasia.

Historical Grudges and the Origins of the Blockade

To understand the historical significance of this lifting of the ban, we must trace back to the roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. During the Soviet era, the region was an autonomous oblast within Azerbaijan, but its population was predominantly ethnic Armenian. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dispute over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh sparked a bloody conflict between the two countries (1992-1994), resulting in Armenia's de facto control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts and the displacement of approximately one million Azerbaijanis. In response, Azerbaijan and its strategic ally, Turkey, imposed a tight economic and transport blockade on Armenia, leaving the landlocked nation with limited external connections relying on Georgia and Iran. This geographical isolation not only constrained Armenia's economic development but also transformed the entire South Caucasus into a "transport fault line" in Eurasia.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 marked a turning point. Azerbaijan, leveraging its military superiority, recovered most of its lost territory; the "anti-terrorist operation" in September 2023 fully restored its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a large-scale exodus of the local Armenian population. This series of military and political changes created the conditions for Azerbaijan to adopt a more assertive regional policy.

Multiple Interpretations of the Astana Announcement

The choice of Kazakhstan to announce this decision holds symbolic significance. As the first country to utilize the new transit route, Kazakhstan's participation has enhanced its image as a neutral mediator. President Tokayev's "diplomacy of multiple balances" has made it a mutually acceptable third-party platform. The first shipment of Kazakh grain, consisting of grain from Kazakhstan, highlights the immediate economic value of the new route: Armenia receives lower-cost food supplies, Kazakhstan opens up a new export channel, and Azerbaijan generates transit revenue.

From a geostrategic perspective, this move demonstrates Azerbaijan's confidence in its "victor's diplomacy." After resolving the territorial dispute militarily, the Aliyev government demonstrated a constructive stance through economic concessions, addressing international concerns about regional stability while deftly shifting public attention from Nagorno-Karabakh's demographic dynamics to the peace process. For Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, this development provides concrete support for his policy of "peaceful coexistence" and helps ease pressure from domestic opposition.

Great Power Interactions in a Global Perspective

As the "crossroads" of Eurasia, the dynamics of the South Caucasus are deeply intertwined with the strategies of major powers:

- The Evolution of Russian Influence: Russia has traditionally maintained a unique influence in the region through mechanisms such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization. However, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict has constrained Moscow's strategic resources, and the limited role of Russian peacekeeping forces during the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh crisis further highlighted its weakening regional control. Azerbaijan's decision to advance key reconciliation steps outside the CSTO framework (Kazakhstan is a member but not the leading party) reflects the reshaping of the regional power structure. Meanwhile, Armenia's doubts about the effectiveness of Russia's security guarantees have prompted it to seek diplomatic diversification.

- Turkey's Strategic Strategy: As Azerbaijan's closest ally, Turkey has long supported Azerbaijan's position. The lifting of the blockade is highly consistent with Ankara's promotion of the "3+3" regional cooperation platform (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia + Russia, Turkey, and Iran) and the "Middle Corridor" initiative. Opening the Armenian route will provide Turkey with direct land access to Central Asia, strengthening its position as a hub for Eurasia. Notably, the announcement coincided with the day after the 102nd anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Turkey, hinting at the advancement of its regional vision.

- EU Strategic Interests: The EU views the South Caucasus as a key area for its Eastern Partnership and has hosted numerous Armenia-Armenia negotiations. This move aligns with the EU's strategy to promote regional connectivity, particularly the development of alternative energy sources and transport routes. European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčović stated, "Open connectivity contributes to the prosperity and security of all citizens." The new transit route offers potential business opportunities for European companies and reduces dependence on a single energy source.

- Third-Party Concerns: Iran remains wary of geopolitical shifts along its northern border, fearing that a strengthening Azerbaijan-Turkey axis could inflame Azerbaijani sentiment within its borders. Israel, as an arms supplier to Azerbaijan, is concerned about the impact of regional stability on its security cooperation. China, on the other hand, views the potential of new transport corridors through the lens of the Belt and Road Initiative, potentially activating the previously blocked southern route of the Middle Corridor.

Regional Economic and Connectivity Transformation

The core value of lifting border restrictions lies in transforming the economic geography of the South Caucasus. According to World Bank estimates, normalizing regional connectivity could increase Armenia's annual GDP growth by 1.5-2%. Specific impacts include:

1. Transport cost restructuring: Freight transportation time from Armenia to Russia could be reduced from five days via Georgia to two days, reducing costs by 30%. Rail transport from Kazakhstan to Turkey could avoid transit at the port of Poti, saving approximately 400 kilometers.

2. Diversification of energy routes: While not directly related to energy transportation, this move creates an environment for future discussions on Armenia's participation in the Southern Gas Corridor project. This could open up new options for the EU's Southern Gas Corridor capacity expansion plan.

3. Digital infrastructure interconnection: The trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable being built by Azerbaijan is expected to extend to Armenia, connecting the latter to the Eurasian digital backbone network.

Challenges and Uncertainties

Despite the clear economic logic, significant political obstacles remain:

- Border demarcation deadlock: Nearly half of the approximately 300-kilometer border between the two sides is disputed. The joint demarcation commission, established in 2024, has made slow progress, and the risk of military confrontation remains in some areas.

- Domestic political pressure: Protests against "humiliating peace" continue to occur regularly on the streets of Yerevan, and the Pashinyan government must carefully balance compromise with sovereignty claims. Baku must contend with hardliners' criticism that it is "conceding too early."

- Regional trust deficit: Mutual suspicions left over from three decades of conflict are unlikely to be quickly resolved. The border clashes in August 2025 demonstrate the fragility of the peace process.

- Risk of great power intervention: Russia may exert influence through economic leverage such as energy prices and remittances; Iran, if it perceives an escalating threat, may increase its military presence in the border area.

Future Outlook: From Lifting Border Crossings to Full Normalization

The Astana announcement can be seen as the starting point for building a new security architecture in the South Caucasus, but its evolutionary path is multifaceted:

1. Gradual Integration: Starting with cargo transit as a pilot, it will gradually expand to rail and energy links, ultimately leading to the liberalization of the movement of people. This approach requires the establishment of a dispute resolution mechanism and a cross-border crisis management agreement.

2. External Guarantee: The EU or the UN may deploy border observers to provide security for this process. Neutral countries such as Kazakhstan and Georgia could facilitate a "3+2" dialogue platform (Argentina + Kazakhstan).

3. Linked Solution: This would tie the lifting of the border ban to negotiations on outstanding issues such as the cultural rights of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, the return of prisoners of war, and access to archives. However, this approach is complex and risky.

Historical experience (such as the EU Coal and Steel Community) shows that economic interconnection often paves the way for political reconciliation. However, the Caucasus is unique in that the military victor proactively provides economic incentives, rather than the reciprocal compromises of the traditional "freeze-the-conflict" model. This "peace initiative from a position of strength" could accelerate the conclusion of an agreement due to power asymmetry, but it could also sow new hidden dangers due to a lack of checks and balances.

Conclusion

The 2025 Astana announcement marks a critical shift in the South Caucasus from "conflict management" to "conflict resolution." Azerbaijan's strategic confidence and Armenia's pragmatic shift coincide during a historical window of reshuffling of great power influence. This move involves not only the normalization of relations between the two countries but also the reconfiguration of Eurasia's transport corridors, energy networks, and security architecture. As Aliyev said, "Peace is not the end, but the starting point of a new competition"—a competition that may revolve around logistics efficiency, investment attractiveness, and regional influence. The Caucasus's ice-breaking journey has just begun, and its course will depend not only on the political wisdom of regional countries but also on the broader geopolitical landscape of Eurasia.