US-Israel-Iran Conflict Expands: US Military Faces Ammunition Shortage, Seeks $50B Replenishment

Comprehensive Report As of March 6 (local time), the US-Israel joint military operation against Iran entered its 6th day, with the conflict expanding from the Mediterranean Sea to the high seas of the Indian Ocean. The US Navy submarine's sinking of an Iranian warship has drawn international attention. Sustained high-intensity strikes have drastically depleted US military ammunition stocks, prompting the Pentagon to plan a $50 billion supplementary budget request to Congress. The risk of conflict spillover is threatening the security of the South Caucasus region.

High Seas Escalation: Cross-Regional Conflict Erupts

On March 4, the US Secretary of Defense confirmed that a US nuclear submarine sank Iran's frigate "IRIS Denah" with Mk48 submarine-launched torpedoes in the high seas near Sri Lanka. The warship, carrying 180 crew members, sank within minutes of the attack while returning to port, with only 32 survivors. Iran condemned the act as a violation of international law, while the Pentagon defended it as "upholding freedom of navigation," marking the conflict's expansion beyond the Middle East.

Dual Crisis: Ammunition and Fiscal Shortfalls

Data from the US Central Command shows that as of March 3, over 2,000 munitions have been deployed, and more than 500 Iranian missiles plus 2,000+ drones have been intercepted. With 2-3 interceptor missiles required per target, critical ammunition stocks are approaching depletion. The first four days of the military operation cost over $11 billion, leading the Pentagon to propose a $50 billion supplementary budget, focusing on replenishing key equipment such as Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot interceptors.

Geopolitical Spillover Risk: South Caucasus Under Pressure

The US and Israel, in coordination with the CIA and Mossad, are providing support to Iranian Kurdish opposition forces in Iraq, pushing the conflict toward a ground offensive. Analysts note that Iran's vigilance against regional countries cooperating with Israel has heightened—the recent drone attack on Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan enclave is a direct manifestation of this geopolitical rivalry, significantly increasing the risk of the conflict spilling over into the South Caucasus.

International Doubts Over Conflict Sustainability

The international community has condemned the US military's high seas strike and questioned the conflict's sustainability. Think tank assessments indicate that US precision-guided weapon stocks can only sustain large-scale air strikes for 4-5 days, with Switzerland and other countries facing a 5-year delay in scheduled Patriot missile deliveries. Despite the White House's assertion of adequate supplies, the stark ammunition and fiscal gaps, coupled with geopolitical maneuvering, pose significant obstacles to mounting calls for a ceasefire.