Putin and Trump want to agree on Ukraine: what to expect in the South Caucasus

The telephone conversation between the leaders of Russia and the United States and the statements made afterwards understandably caused a stormy resonance in the world. Leading European politicians and media outlets rushed to declare a “Putin-Trump world”, the American leader's surrender to the interests of the Euro-Atlantic community, etc. Of course, it is still very early to draw unequivocal conclusions about the formation of the global balance of power, but it is obvious that many regions where Moscow's and Washington's approaches have traditionally clashed are on the threshold of fundamental changes.

The South Caucasus will certainly not be left out of these changes, given the whole knot of interests and contradictions of various forces and players in this region. According to David Arutyunov, a political scientist and security expert, in order to answer the question of how Moscow and Washington's agreements will affect the situation in the South Caucasus and Armenia in particular, it is necessary to understand the contours of the Ukrainian conflict.

Depending on the methodology for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, one can speak either of a slow but stable restoration of Moscow's position in the Caucasus or of the preservation of the current situation. The uncertainty is also caused by the fact that no one knows what the Trump team's approach to the South Caucasus will be. The new administration is very active in several global areas at once, but it is not yet apparent that they have ready-made solutions and schemes of work in all these areas.

“Judging by Trump's general strategy, the US President is a supporter of dividing the world into spheres of influence or concretizing these spheres of influence. There may be different options regarding our region and Armenia. Unfortunately, one of the scenarios is the strengthening of Turkey's role as the main conductor of US interests. Washington may reduce its presence here and begin to perceive the region through the Turkish prism. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that Washington will take Moscow's interests into account,” says Arutyunov.

If at some point relations between Moscow and Washington escalate again, the Trump administration may start using its predecessor's tactics to counter Russia wherever possible.

The expert points out that Armenia (as well as many other countries) were not at all prepared for such a turn of events, starting with Trump's election victory and ending with Washington and Moscow's attempts to start a strategic dialog.

“The actions and statements of the Armenian authorities in the sphere of foreign policy are now largely inertial. This is inertia from previous processes, when there was a Democratic president in the White House and the US and EU had a consolidated position on the South Caucasus. The current government is still appealing to democratic values, playing this trump card and using it as a major geopolitical asset. But it is obvious that the current administration in Washington has completely different priorities,” says Arutyunov.

The situation is further complicated by official Yerevan's lack of any consistency and clear strategy in its foreign policy. This policy is very spontaneous and unpredictable, and, for example, a conditional warming, softening of rhetoric towards partners and allies may be followed by another scandalous statement by one or another official, annulling previous achievements and results. According to Arutyunov, the situation objectively requires balanced steps and skillful maneuvers from Armenia, but this is done poorly and clumsily, often leading to extremely negative consequences.

Reprinted from https://am.sputniknews.ru/