Putin and Nazarbayev Meet Again

On December 27, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev in Moscow. This was their second meeting this year; Putin had previously met with Nazarbayev on May 29. A year earlier, on December 13, 2024, Putin and Nazarbayev held talks in Novo-Ogaryovo.

Footage provided by the Kremlin press service shows the two leaders sitting opposite each other at a round table decorated with white flowers. Although Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the meeting as "like a reunion of old friends," given the geopolitical realities, such private meetings inevitably spark speculation about the delicate nature of Russia-Kazakhstan relations.

01 Frequent Meetings and Special Relationship

Meetings between Putin and Nazarbayev have become commonplace. This is the second meeting this year alone. According to past records, this high frequency of meetings has a historical tradition. Prior to 2019, Nazarbayev, as President of Kazakhstan, met with Putin more frequently.

In February 2017, Putin visited Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, and exchanged views with Nazarbayev on bilateral cooperation and international and regional issues of common concern. At that time, Nazarbayev emphasized the "high degree of political trust and mutual understanding" between Kazakhstan and Russia.

In 2018, the two leaders met multiple times. On November 9, they jointly attended the 15th Kazakhstan-Russia Interregional Cooperation Forum. Nazarbayev revealed at the time that bilateral trade had reached $11 billion in the first eight months and was expected to reach $18 billion by the end of the year.

These meetings were not only frequent but also covered a wide range of areas, from economic cooperation to regional security, from international affairs to cultural exchanges, demonstrating the multi-dimensional cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan under the leadership of the two leaders.

02 Nazarbayev's Political Ups and Downs

To understand the significance of these meetings, it's essential to understand Nazarbayev's political standing in Kazakhstan. He served as President of Kazakhstan from 1991 to 2019, the country's first leader since independence.

In March 2019, Nazarbayev voluntarily resigned as president. In June of the same year, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev won the presidential election. On the surface, it appeared to be a smooth power transition, but subsequent developments revealed a more complex situation.

After resigning, Nazarbayev retained important positions, including Chairman of the National Security Council and the title of "Leader of the Nation." However, following the widespread unrest in Kazakhstan in January 2022, Tokayev swiftly stripped Nazarbayev of all his posts.

In early 2022, Tokayev repealed the "Law on the First President," revoking the legal immunity of Nazarbayev and his family. Subsequently, the capital's name was changed back from Nur-Sultan to Astana. These moves mark Nazarbayev's formal withdrawal from the center of the political stage.

03 The Overt and Covert Currents of Russia-Kazakhstan Relations

Russia-Kazakhstan relations have always been characterized as a strategic alliance. Putin once called Kazakhstan "Russia's strategic partner and a truly reliable ally." However, behind this apparent friendship, many subtleties exist in the relationship.

Economically, the two countries cooperate closely. According to Nazarbayev in 2018, 9,000 Russian companies operate in Kazakhstan, and more than 60 large-scale investment projects totaling $10 billion are underway. The two countries are also committed to promoting local currency settlements, which at that time had reached 63%.

Politically, however, Tokayev has adopted a more independent diplomatic stance since taking office. On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he publicly stated that he "does not support the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk," a statement that "greatly embarrassed" Putin.

In response, Russia closed Kazakhstan's oil exports to Europe, while Kazakhstan tightened its customs policies towards Russia. These frictions demonstrate that while relations between the two countries are generally friendly, disagreements do occur from time to time.

04 Private Meetings in the Geopolitical Chessboard

Although the meetings between Putin and Nazarbayev are described as "private," their political implications cannot be ignored. In particular, the timing of these meetings often carries special significance.

For example, less than a week after Putin's secret meeting with Nazarbayev in December 2023, Tokayev personally visited Russia. This coincidence has sparked numerous interpretations.

Some analysts believe that Putin was sending a signal to Tokayev through these meetings, indicating that "Russia still has political influence in Kazakhstan." Kazakhstani MP Samat Nurtaza once questioned, "Why does Nazarbayev fly to Moscow every year?"

Especially given Kazakhstan's plans to build a new nuclear power plant, for which Russia hopes to secure the contract, the timing of Putin's meetings may be intended to influence Kazakhstan's decision-making.

05 Kazakhstan's Diplomatic Balancing Strategy in Great Power Rivalry

As a major power in Central Asia, Kazakhstan has consistently maintained a balanced diplomacy among major powers. This trend has become even more pronounced since Tokayev came to power.

Kazakhstan has not blindly followed Russia but has maintained an independent stance on certain international issues. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan actively develops relations with China, the West, and other countries. This diversified diplomacy has given Kazakhstan greater strategic space.

In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Kazakhstan maintained neutrality, supported Ukraine's territorial integrity, and partially complied with Western sanctions in the financial sector. This stance differs from the behavior expected of an "ally" by Russia.

At the same time, Kazakhstan actively participates in international affairs, having served as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and played a mediating role in the Syrian conflict. These actions demonstrate its determination to pursue an independent diplomacy.

With the changing geopolitical landscape of Eurasia, Kazakhstan faces increasing pressure. In 2022, Russia shut down Kazakhstan's oil export routes for several months, citing "technical reasons."

The decision on which company wins the bid for Kazakhstan's new nuclear power plant project will be a crucial indicator of the future direction of Russia-Kazakhstan relations. Currently, companies from China, Russia, South Korea, and France are all bidding.

Each meeting between Putin and Nazarbayev, these longtime diplomatic friends, reflects the historical depth and current complexity of their special relationship, and serves as a window into the evolution of post-Soviet relations between nations.