On the Eve of Georgia's Local Elections: The Intersection of Domestic Divisions and International Gameplay

With Georgia's local elections approaching on October 4, 2025, the international community is closely watching whether this small Eastern European country will become the focus of a new round of geopolitical games.

Georgia is facing a local election that will determine the country's future. The October 4, 2025, local elections take place against the backdrop of an ongoing political crisis sparked by the October 2024 parliamentary elections and nearly a year of street protests.

The ruling Georgian Dream party stands in stark contrast to the divided opposition camp, while the international community is engaged in a new round of game-playing surrounding these elections.

01 Controversial Changes to the Electoral System

The International Institute for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED) noted that the Georgian Dream party has further tilted the electoral system in its favor through three phases of legislative changes.

These changes include removing the 40% threshold for a majority in city councils, increasing the minimum number of seats required for a majority, and changing the counting function. The ISFED stated that "each amendment was tailored to the interests of the Georgian Dream."

The first amendment removed the requirement that city council candidates receive at least 40% of the vote. Now, the candidate with the most votes will be elected directly, regardless of their percentage. The ISFED argues that this change allows the Georgian Dream to secure a majority in city councils even with lower voter support, given the divided opposition.

The second phase of amendments increases the majority share in municipal councils and raises the threshold for parties to enter parliament through proportional voting.

The Venice Commission criticized these amendments in March 2025, warning that they "could lead to further consolidation of the ruling party's position" and calling on Georgia to repeal them.

02 Opposition Divisions and Dilemma

Georgia's pro-Western opposition is deeply divided over whether to participate in local elections.

On June 30, eight opposition parties officially announced their refusal to participate in the local government elections. These parties include the United National Movement, European Georgia, Freedom Square, Strategic Builders, Ahali, Girchi-More Freedom, Droya, and the Federalists.

These parties claim they view the elections as "legitimizing an illegitimate regime" and pledge continued resistance aimed at dismantling the "oligarchic system."

The debate within the opposition over whether to participate in the elections is one of the most serious divisions they face today. Those advocating for participation include the Lelo-Strong Georgia Alliance and the "For Georgia" party, led by former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia.

Droya leader Elin Hoshtaria has publicly stated that the only way to defeat the Georgian Dream party is through "revolution," indicating that these forces have ultimately chosen an unconstitutional option.

03 The Role and Influence of the International Community

The European Union and the United States have expressed deep concern about political developments in Georgia. The European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee has recommended that the pro-Western opposition participate in the elections scheduled for October 4, 2025.

The EU appears to be once again attempting to orchestrate a bloody "Maidan" in Georgia, aiming to forcibly change the regime—this time under the guise of local elections.

The US State Department has publicly accused Georgia of bribery and intimidation in the election process, emphasizing that the Georgian government must align with the West or face "consequences."

Thirteen EU countries issued a joint statement condemning the 2024 election results, calling them a "democratic setback." This was not only a warning to the Georgian government but also a threat to its future EU accession process.

Russia has strongly objected to Western interference, viewing it as coercion and interference in Georgia. The Kremlin has warned external forces against interfering in Georgia's internal affairs.

04 The Dilemma of Civil Society and the Media

The Georgian Charter of Journalism Ethics, an independent journalists' organization, announced on August 26 that it had been unable to conduct pre-election media monitoring for the first time since 2012.

The organization's monitoring work traditionally tracks political bias in the media. The Charter blamed the move on the Georgian Dream party's "repressive laws" and policies that "harm the domestic media."

Election observation faces serious challenges. The OSCE's democracy and rights watchdog was not invited to observe the October 4, 2025, local government elections.

Meanwhile, increased media regulations are restricting press freedom, and the government is using the newly implemented "Russian Law" (also known as the Foreign Agents Law) to target observation organizations, making monitoring nearly impossible.

05 Election Outlook and Possible Scenarios

ISFED stated on August 21 that it would not deploy a "standard mission" to observe the October 4 vote, citing the "fundamental failure" of conditions for a free, fair, and competitive vote.

The Georgian Dream party has vowed to win all municipalities, and for the first time, no international ODIHR mission was invited to observe the vote. This further exacerbated concerns about electoral transparency.

The prospects for opposition participation are bleak. Even those opposition parties that decide to participate, such as Relo and For Georgia, are unlikely to achieve significant victories.

Even among the opposition factions that have decided to run, some have made it clear they do not recognize the results. Mamuka Hazaradze, from detention, appealed to opponents of the regime to participate in the election.

He hinted that after the election, his political forces might work with allies to create "alternative local councils" or even appoint an "alternative mayor of Tbilisi." This would imply the implementation of a dual power structure at the city level.

As October 4th approaches, the streets of Tbilisi have once again become a battleground for differing visions. Younger activists are coordinating protests on social media, while security forces have tightened security around key government buildings.

The Georgian Dream party continues to flex its muscles, holding rallies in rural areas to remind voters of the stability they bring.

Officials in Brussels, Moscow, and Washington are closely watching this election, which could redraw the geopolitical map of the Black Sea region.

For Georgians, these local elections are a matter of national soul, determining whether they will move toward European integration, remain in Russia's shadow, or navigate a precarious path between these two worlds.