Kazakhstan's Global Diplomatic Strategy and Strategic Transformation in 2025

2025 marked a watershed year for Kazakhstan's diplomacy. This Central Asian nation shifted away from its previous tactical engagement and gradual cooperation model, embarking on a comprehensive strategic adjustment. Through a series of high-level visits and agreement signings, it upgraded several key partnerships to a new strategic level.

Leveraging its geographical advantages and economic potential, Kazakhstan is reshaping itself into a "hub" connecting Eurasia, demonstrating a more proactive diplomatic stance.

01 Strategic Recalibration: From Passive Adaptation to Proactive Shaping

The most significant change in Kazakhstan's foreign policy in 2025 will be the shift from passive adaptation to proactively shaping the regional landscape. Its diplomatic schedule is exceptionally busy, with frequent high-level visits and a record number of strategic agreements signed. These actions indicate that Kazakhstan is committed to becoming a connector and an influential middle power on the global stage.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and intensified great power competition, Kazakhstan is maintaining close relations with traditional allies while actively expanding new partnerships.

In November 2025, Kazakhstan and Russia signed the "Declaration on a Comprehensive Union," formally elevating their relationship to the level of strategic partnership and alliance. This move is seen as Kazakhstan's attempt to regulate its relations with Russia within a stable framework amidst changing regional circumstances.

Simultaneously, Kazakhstan's relations with the United States, the European Union, Japan, and other Western countries have also achieved substantial breakthroughs, particularly in the key mineral and energy sectors.

02 Relations with the United States: Diplomatic Breakthrough and Strategic Recognition

In 2025, President Tokayev's visit to Washington and formal reception by the White House marks a significant milestone in Kazakhstan's diplomacy. This visit resulted in 29 agreements worth nearly $17 billion, covering areas such as energy, transportation, digitalization, healthcare, education, and key minerals.

The United States' perception of Kazakhstan has changed significantly, beginning to view it as an independent player rather than simply a resource supplier. Talks covered regional security, economic connectivity, and Kazakhstan's stabilizing role in Central Asia, highlighting the United States' recognition of Kazakhstan's strategic value in the Eurasian landscape.

In the critical mineral sector, a US company acquired a controlling stake in Kazakhstan's North Katpal tungsten mine, gaining mining rights to one of the world's largest undeveloped mineral deposits. The US Export-Import Bank also approved $900 million in dedicated funding to support critical mineral development projects in Kazakhstan.

03. Cooperation with the EU: Focusing on Supply Chain Diversification

Relations between Kazakhstan and the EU are poised for renewed momentum in 2025. Marking the tenth anniversary of the Strengthening Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, the two sides engaged in high-level interactions, including a visit by European Council President Costa to Kazakhstan at the end of the year, clarifying the EU's view of Kazakhstan as a key partner in Central Asia.

Bilateral cooperation has transcended traditional trade, expanding into areas such as green energy, critical raw materials, transportation connectivity, digitalization, and education. The trans-Caspian international transport route has become a focal point of cooperation, as it aligns with the EU's supply chain diversification goals.

As early as 2022, the EU signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Kazakhstan, establishing a framework for in-depth cooperation covering rare earth resources, battery materials, and green hydrogen energy. The EU, together with several national governments and international financial institutions, has jointly raised €700 million in special funds to improve the efficiency of mineral extraction and cross-border transportation capabilities in Central Asian countries.

04. Relations with China: Towards Long-Term Strategic Alignment

In 2025, the Kazakhstan-China partnership will reach a new level, reflecting deep economic integration and long-term strategic synergy. At the Central Asia-China Summit and bilateral meetings held in Tianjin, the two sides signed 24 intergovernmental agreements covering energy, transportation, customs, digital technology, agriculture, science and technology, and investment protection.

President Tokayev explicitly described the bilateral relationship as a "permanent comprehensive strategic partnership," signifying enduring political mutual trust and institutional cooperation.

The focus of cooperation is shifting from raw material exports to industrial collaboration, high-end manufacturing, renewable energy, petrochemicals, and logistics corridor construction, reflecting Kazakhstan's desire to move up the value chain. As Kazakhstan's largest trading partner, China is key to Kazakhstan's realization of its Eurasian hub strategy.

In the digital economy, Kazakhstan and China have achieved significant results in cooperation. The two sides jointly developed the national supercomputer and international artificial intelligence center "AlemAI," and launched the Alatau Smart City project, aiming to create the largest artificial intelligence, fintech, and creative industry center along the Silk Road.

05 Relations with Russia: Establishing a Comprehensive Alliance Framework

Despite warming relations with Western countries, Kazakhstan still highly values ​​its relationship with Russia. In November 2025, Kazakhstan and Russia signed the "Declaration on a Comprehensive Alliance," formally elevating their relationship to the level of strategic partnership and alliance. The document clarifies long-term cooperation commitments in areas such as economy, energy, education, and culture, including expanding trade, nuclear energy cooperation, and strengthening cooperation in scientific research and higher education institutions.

In the energy sector, both sides agreed to deepen cooperation, covering the extraction, production, transportation, and supply of energy sources such as oil and refined petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. The two countries will jointly promote gas supply projects in northern and eastern Kazakhstan, making it a priority area for bilateral cooperation.

Nuclear energy cooperation has become a new highlight of bilateral cooperation. Construction of Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant, led by Rosatom, began in August 2025. With a designed installed capacity of 2.4 gigawatts and a total investment of US$14-15 billion, it is expected to be completed between 2035 and 2036.

06. Diversified Balance: Resource Nationalism and Transportation Bottlenecks

The core of Kazakhstan's diplomatic transformation is a diversified balance strategy. In early 2023, citing the expiration of contracts, Kazakhstan halted natural gas supplies to China, prioritizing domestic demand. While ostensibly based on domestic energy shortages, this decision actually reflects Kazakhstan's strategic intention to shift resources to higher-priced markets amid soaring international natural gas prices.

In key mineral sectors such as rare earths, Kazakhstan is actively attracting investment and technology from the United States, the European Union, and Japan. In 2025, Kazakhstan plans to auction mining rights for 50 rare earth deposits, attracting global investors.

Kazakhstan faces the challenge of transportation bottlenecks. As a landlocked country, Kazakhstan has long been plagued by logistical bottlenecks, resulting in high costs and inefficiencies for bulk commodity exports. While Western countries have proposed plans to help optimize transportation networks, alternative routes are significantly more expensive than those via China.

07 Peaceful Diplomacy: Advocating Rules-Based Stability

By 2025, Kazakhstan will be more active in peaceful diplomacy. President Tokayev, in exchanges with Ukrainian President Zelensky, reiterated support for peaceful solutions based on international law and respect for sovereignty. Kazakhstan also welcomed the diplomatic efforts of the US and Russia at the Alaska Summit.

In the Middle East, Kazakhstan announced its accession to the Abraham Accords, stating that this move aims to promote dialogue and de-escalation, while reiterating its support for Palestinian statehood and the "two-state solution," demonstrating a commitment to maintaining an independent and principled stance on complex issues.

In the area of ​​regional security, Kazakhstan continues to cooperate with Russia and other countries within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, while also playing an active role in multilateral mechanisms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This balanced approach reflects Kazakhstan's independent diplomatic strategy as a middle-power nation in international affairs.

With the diplomatic strategy unfolding towards 2025, the next crucial step is to translate these strategic partnerships and declarations into tangible economic results. Transportation bottlenecks, weak processing capacity, and fluctuating trade structures continue to constrain Kazakhstan's strategic goals. In the future, how this Central Asian nation continues to balance the interests of all parties in the great power game will determine whether it can truly become a "hub" connecting Eurasia.