Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan: Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Considerations for Enhancing the Strategic Partnership

The upcoming meeting between Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on October 20-21 marks a new, more strategic and systematic phase in bilateral relations. This state visit is not an isolated diplomatic event, but rather a key initiative for deepening all-round cooperation between two important countries in the heart of Eurasia amidst the evolving global geoeconomic landscape, accelerating regional integration, and the diversification of international energy trade routes. From a global perspective, the strengthening of Kazakh-Azerbaijani relations stems from both countries' shared development needs and reflects the growing strategic importance of the Trans-Caspian region as a link between East and West.

I. The Basis of Historical Ties and Strategic Proximity

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are both members of the Cooperation Council of Turkic-speaking States and share historical, cultural, and linguistic roots, providing a strong public foundation for bilateral relations. Since their respective independence in 1991, the two countries have maintained long-standing friendly relations within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States. In recent years, with the deepening of their respective "diversified and balanced foreign policies," the pace of strategic convergence between the two countries has significantly accelerated. President Tokayev's visit to Baku in 2022 injected new impetus into the strategic partnership, and Aliyev's reciprocal visit aims to translate this momentum into a more concrete roadmap for cooperation.

Economic complementarity is the core factor driving the improvement of bilateral relations. As the largest economy in Central Asia, Kazakhstan boasts abundant energy, mineral, and agricultural resources and is committed to economic modernization and industrial diversification. Azerbaijan, a key country in the Transcaucasus region, is not only a major producer and exporter of Caspian Sea oil and gas resources but has also played an increasingly important role in Europe's energy supply system in recent years, thanks to projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor. The two countries share similar economic structures and broad potential for cooperation in areas such as industrial chains, transit services, and scientific and technological cooperation.

II. Trans-Caspian Cooperation: A Hub for Energy and Transport Corridors

Energy cooperation is a pillar of the Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan strategic partnership. Kazakhstan is seeking to diversify its oil and gas export routes to reduce its reliance on traditional transit countries. Azerbaijan's infrastructure, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline, provides Kazakh energy exports with new options to reach European markets. The two sides have held multiple rounds of consultations on the possibility of transporting Kazakh oil through Azerbaijani territory. Furthermore, in the field of renewable energy, both countries have set ambitious energy transition goals, and there is significant potential for technological cooperation in solar and wind power development, as well as green hydrogen.

Transport connectivity is another key area. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the "Middle Corridor," has gained in importance in recent years due to geopolitical shifts. This route runs from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Turkey and Europe, avoiding the political risks of traditional transit countries. Freight volume on this route increased significantly in 2022, but infrastructure bottlenecks remain. As key nodes along the corridor, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are working together to increase the throughput capacity of Caspian ports, optimize customs procedures, and promote digital logistics solutions. The visit may involve projects such as establishing a more efficient ferry service between the ports of Aktau and Alyat, coordinating tariff policies, and jointly investing in transportation infrastructure.

III. Regional Security and Cooperation in Multilateral Mechanisms

Regarding regional security, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan both value sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity and share a common interest in maintaining stability in the Transcaucasus and Central Asia. Kazakhstan has consistently supported relevant UN Security Council resolutions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and advocated for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The two sides share a need for cooperation in combating non-traditional security threats such as terrorism, extremism, and drug trafficking. Furthermore, as non-nuclear states, the two countries share similar positions on nuclear non-proliferation.

Coordination within multilateral platforms is an important manifestation of the strategic partnership. In addition to the Cooperation Council of Turkic-speaking States, the two countries maintain close communication within the frameworks of the United Nations, the OSCE, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Notably, both maintain balanced relations with major powers such as Russia, Turkey, China, and the European Union. This diplomatic similarity helps to build consensus on international issues. Caught between different integration mechanisms, such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union, strengthening bilateral cooperation between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan can help enhance their bargaining power within the regional framework.

IV. Strategic Considerations in a Global Context

From a broader perspective, the strengthening of Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan relations aligns with the current trend of the global geoeconomic center of gravity shifting eastward and southward. Emerging market countries are actively building regional cooperation networks to enhance economic resilience and strategic autonomy. The shifts in Eurasian transport and energy flows triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have accelerated the development of alternative routes, such as the Middle Corridor. Amidst the Western and Russian sanctions war, both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are cautiously avoiding taking sides, instead strengthening regional cooperation to mitigate risks and seize opportunities.

For Europe, a reliable supply of alternative energy and the stability of the Eurasian Land Bridge are crucial. Cooperation between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan can help diversify Europe's energy sources and enhance supply chain resilience. For Russia, the deepening of bilateral relations must be viewed within the broader context of the Eurasian Economic Union's interactions with its neighboring countries. Moscow remains vigilant against any regional cooperation that could undermine its traditional influence. For Turkey, as a champion of the Turkic-speaking world, Ankara welcomes the warming of relations between its two important brother countries, which will help strengthen its vision for regional integration. For China, the Trans-Caspian Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative requires close collaboration between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and improved relations between the two countries will enhance the efficiency of the China-Europe Railway Express's southern route.

V. Challenges and Prospects

While the prospects for cooperation are broad, challenges cannot be ignored. First, the transportation costs and efficiency of the Trans-Caspian Route are not yet competitive with the traditional northern route, requiring large-scale infrastructure investment and technological upgrades. Although the legal status of the Caspian Sea has been resolved through the 2018 Convention, specific cooperation mechanisms for ecological protection and resource development still need to be refined. Second, both countries' economies are highly dependent on resource exports and face long-term pressures brought about by the global energy transition. Accelerating industrial diversification through cooperation is a common challenge. Furthermore, the complex dynamics among regional powers require both sides to carefully balance their relationships with various parties and avoid becoming entangled in geopolitical turmoil.

In summary, the meeting between Tokayev and Aliyev marks an important milestone in the evolution of the Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan strategic partnership. By strengthening energy, transportation, investment, and multilateral coordination, the two countries aim to elevate their bilateral relationship to a new level adapted to the geoeconomic realities of the 21st century. This process not only impacts the development interests of both countries but will also have profound implications for Eurasia's economic integration, energy security, and geostrategic landscape. In a period of transition in the global order, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, as representatives of middle powers, are enhancing their dynamism through pragmatic cooperation. Their interactive model provides an important case study for observing emerging cooperation paradigms in Eurasia.