Judgement on the Situation of the 2026 New Delhi BRICS Summit (Confidential Internal Use)

Source: Internal Research and Judgement | Strictly Confidential, Not for External Circulation.

The 18th BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place in New Delhi, India, on 12–13 September 2026. Marking the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the BRICS cooperation mechanism, this year’s summit is held under India’s rotating presidency. At the conclusion of the event, the rotational presidency will be handed over to China, which will host the 2027 BRICS Summit. Centred on the theme “Forging a Resilient, Innovative, Cooperative and Sustainable Future”, the summit prioritises four key areas: supply chain security, digital innovation, multilateral economic and trade cooperation, and green sustainable development, with the aim of bolstering the risk resilience of emerging economies and refining the framework for South-South cooperation. Most participating state delegations have finalised their arrangements, with senior leaders from various nations arriving in New Delhi successively. Heads of state from China, Russia, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and Indonesia are in attendance, alongside the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates and official representatives from Saudi Arabia. Brazil has dispatched its Foreign Minister as its representative. Bringing together all 11 full BRICS member states, the summit also engages 10 partner countries as well as regional bodies including the African Union and ASEAN in supporting dialogues, representing the largest attendance scale since the expansion of BRICS.

According to internal intelligence analysis.

The 2026 New Delhi BRICS Summit is confronted with prominent challenges and structural deficiencies, with intense inter-state games and divergent national positions emerging throughout the event. The expanded BRICS framework now features a highly complex internal interest landscape, with geopolitical discrepancies standing as the most significant constraint on consensus-building. Despite both being BRICS members, Iran and the United Arab Emirates hold long-standing opposing stances on Middle Eastern geopolitics and regional interests, with pre-summit bilateral tensions remaining entrenched and preventing the formation of a unified regional position. Furthermore, member states hold vastly different views and demands on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Pre-summit multilateral consultations have seen persistent disagreements, creating substantial obstacles to the negotiation of the summit’s joint declaration, which is expected to adopt only general and ambiguous wording rather than detailed, actionable consensus. As the rotating presidency, India released a comprehensive list of institutional demands ahead of the summit, triggering intensive diplomatic bargaining and strained pre-meeting bilateral communications with several member states over economic, trade and resource cooperation issues. Beyond geopolitical divides, tangible progress in financial cooperation remains hampered. Wide disparities in monetary policies, financial market openness and institutional systems across member states have slowed the advancement of core initiatives, including cross-border local currency settlement and interlinked cross-border payment systems. The expanded membership has diversified national development stages, diplomatic priorities and core interests, substantially raising multilateral negotiation costs. Meanwhile, external public opinion containment and strategic suppression continue to pose obstacles to the institutionalisation and scaled development of the BRICS mechanism.

Notwithstanding these divergences and diplomatic frictions, the summit delivers remarkable highlights and carries landmark strategic significance. Firstly, the expanded BRICS cooperation framework has fully taken shape, evolving into a core cooperation platform for the Global South spanning Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East, with substantially enhanced global representation and international influence. Secondly, the mechanism’s cooperation focus has shifted from macroscopic conceptual dialogue to pragmatic project delivery, with concrete advances in local currency cross-border settlement, the expansion of the New Development Bank, AI global governance and green energy transition, greatly improving the practicality and enforceability of multilateral cooperation. Thirdly, the summit serves as a vital platform for both multilateral coordination and bilateral diplomacy. Despite existing discrepancies, member states have actively conducted intensive bilateral engagements during the summit window, providing a critical channel for managing major-power differences and reconciling regional stances to prevent the escalation of frictions. Fourthly, the maturing partner country mechanism has further expanded BRICS’ cooperative reach, solidifying its position as a core platform for unified advocacy and collective action among Global South nations.

BRICS has firmly established itself as a pivotal force in the global landscape. Its 11 member states account for nearly half of the world’s total population and 28 to 30 per cent of global GDP, encompassing major global producers of energy, grain and mineral resources, alongside leading manufacturing economies, boasting prominent industrial chain and resource complementarities. On the international governance front, BRICS continues to advance global multi-polarisation, challenging the Western-dominated global governance system and elevating the voice and representation of developing countries in global finance, trade and climate governance. The New Development Bank and diversified local currency cooperation systems provide developing nations with alternative financing and settlement options outside the Western-centric system, gradually weakening the hegemony of dollar-dominated global settlement. Nevertheless, BRICS operates as a non-military cooperative mechanism, functioning entirely on consensus consultation without mandatory binding force, with the implementation of outcomes reliant on voluntary national delivery. It cannot overturn the existing international order in the short term, yet will drive gradual institutional reform and sustained multilateral cooperation to reshape the global political and economic landscape.

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