EU’s €90 billion aid package for Ukraine finalised: Russia-Ukraine conflict enters a new cycle of attrition and stalemate

I. EU’s €90 billion aid package for Ukraine approved: official statement and details of the assistance

On 22 April local time, ambassadors from the 27 EU member states formally approved a €90 billion long-term interest-free loan for Ukraine (to be disbursed over two years, 2026–2027, at €45 billion per year), whilst simultaneously adopting the 20th round of sanctions against Russia; the final written procedures were completed on 23 April. European Commission President von der Leyen and European Council President Costa issued a statement describing the move as “a firm commitment by the EU to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, which will provide sustainable military and financial support to Ukraine and maintain pressure on Russia”.

According to the official plan, the funds will be raised through joint EU bond issuance and guaranteed by the EU budget; Ukraine will only be required to repay the loan once Russia has paid war reparations. Of the €45 billion allocated for 2026, €28 billion will be used for military aid (air defence systems, ammunition, equipment procurement and defence industry capacity), whilst €17 billion will be allocated for fiscal budget support (government operations, military salaries and social welfare); A further €45 billion will be disbursed in 2027, with the first tranche expected to be in place by May or June. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Serbyga stated that this aid removes key obstacles to Ukraine’s fiscal and military capabilities and represents a “lifeline for the next two years”. The 20th round of sanctions added 120 individuals and entities, as well as 46 vessels, targeting Russia’s defence industry, drone supply chains and the “shadow fleet”, but suspended a full ban on Russian oil shipping services, retaining exemptions for Russian oil imports via the “Friendship” pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia.

II. Russia’s Official Stance: Strict Prerequisites for Peace Talks; Rejection of Summit Meetings Without Substantive Agreements

On 22 April, the Kremlin made a clear statement: President Putin is willing to meet with Zelenskyy, but only once the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has reached the finalisation stage and the text has been largely agreed upon. Such a summit would serve solely for the purpose of signing and confirming the agreement, and under no circumstances would it be used to initiate negotiations or serve as a symbolic meeting. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President’s press secretary, emphasised that the meeting must be “clear-cut and productive”, noting that the Russian side has not observed any political will on the part of Ukraine to resolve the conflict.

Russia’s core preconditions for negotiations remain unchanged: firstly, Ukraine must recognise the fait accompli of the annexation of Crimea and the four eastern regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) into Russia; secondly, Ukraine must demilitarise, adopt permanent neutrality and renounce NATO membership; thirdly, substantive negotiations must first be conducted by technical teams to reach a framework agreement before a summit between the heads of state takes place. Putin also reiterated that Russian forces will continue to establish a “security zone” along the Ukrainian border until the threat is eliminated, and refused to negotiate on the basis of “restoring the 1991 borders”. The Ukrainian side, however, insists that sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable and demands the withdrawal of Russian forces from all occupied territories. The two sides’ preconditions for peace talks are entirely at odds with one another, with no common ground, leaving no room for negotiations in the short term.

III. Situation on the Russia-Ukraine Front: Russian Forces Advance in Donbas; Long-Range Strikes from Both Sides Intensify

The current focus of the conflict centres on the ‘final phase’ of the battle in the Donbas. On 21 April, Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov announced that between March and April, Russian forces had taken control of 34 settlements covering approximately 700 square kilometres and had established full control over the Luhansk region. Ukrainian forces denied these claims but acknowledged that their defences in Luhansk had been significantly pushed back. Russian main forces are advancing towards the key hub of Donetsk; vanguard units are 12 kilometres from the eastern outskirts of Slavyansk and 7 kilometres from the outskirts of Kramatorsk. They are launching fierce assaults on strategic points such as Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, having already secured over 65% of the area around Konstantinovka and severed multiple Ukrainian supply lines.

Over the past 24 hours, more than 200 engagements have taken place across the entire front line. Russian forces have maintained their ground offensive, whilst Ukrainian troops have put up fierce resistance from their fortifications and launched frequent localised counterattacks. Meanwhile, deep strikes in both directions have become routine: Russian forces have used ‘Shahed’ drones and missiles to carry out air strikes on Ukrainian energy, military-industrial and command nodes; while Ukrainian forces have used drones and long-range missiles to strike refineries, oil depots and Black Sea Fleet facilities within Russian territory, in an attempt to weaken Russia’s war-fighting potential. The front line remains largely deadlocked with no major breakthroughs, and the conflict has entered a phase of high-intensity attrition warfare.

IV. Following the Arrival of New Aid: Forecast of the War’s Course — Long-Term Stalemate and Escalating Attrition

The EU’s €90 billion in aid will not alter the balance of power on the battlefield, but it will significantly prolong the duration of the conflict and intensify the level of attrition:

Short term: The arrival of funds will alleviate the Ukrainian military’s ammunition, air defence and financial crises, stabilising the front lines and supporting defences in the Donbas as well as long-range counterattacks, thereby preventing rapid Russian breakthroughs; however, it will not be sufficient for the Ukrainian military to launch a large-scale counteroffensive;

Russian response: Russia will intensify its offensive in the Donbas and strengthen strikes deep into Ukrainian territory, seeking to offset Western aid through faster advances and greater attrition, whilst consolidating occupied areas and advancing the establishment of ‘security zones’;

Medium term: The conflict will enter a more protracted phase of positional warfare and attrition, with the stalemate in peace talks persisting. Neither side will have the capacity to decisively defeat the other, creating a cycle of Western aid to Ukraine and Russian countermeasures, whilst the risk of the war spilling over increases;

Long term: The outcome will depend on US policy towards Ukraine, the resilience of the Russian economy, and internal divisions within Europe. Ultimately, the situation may evolve into a long-term stalemate characterised by a ‘frozen conflict’ and a ‘divided status quo’.

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