Armenia's goal is to join the European Union.

"Leaving the Eurasian Economic Union is not the goal, but joining the EU is," Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated during his visit to Germany, clearly revealing the country's basic direction in foreign policy. He further explained, "We understand that it's impossible to remain in both the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU simultaneously. We also know that there will always be a point in the future where a decision needs to be made, but that time is not yet here."

Just a few months earlier, in August, when asked whether Armenia would withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union given its move towards the EU, Pashinyan stated that anything was possible, pointing out that a country cannot be a member of both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union at the same time.

The Armenian parliament passed a law initiating the process of joining the EU, primarily to promote domestic democratic reforms and align standards across various sectors with those of the EU.

01 Geopolitical Turning Point: From Traditional Allies to Strategic Westward Lean

Armenia's shift in foreign policy did not occur out of thin air, but rather stemmed from a series of changes in the regional security landscape. As a traditional ally of Russia, Armenia has long maintained close ties with Moscow, being not only a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union but also a key participant in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Historically, Armenia has been highly dependent on Russia in areas such as energy supply and regional trade, which are crucial to its economic and security.

The turning point came with the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and its aftermath. In September 2023, Azerbaijan swiftly recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh, exacerbating Armenia's disillusionment with Russia. The failure of Russian troops to provide assistance during the conflict, and the lack of promised protection from its ally, prompted Armenia to increasingly align itself with the West.

Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan stated bluntly: "The EU has expressed its political support for Armenian democracy on various occasions. The EU has expressed its willingness and, in fact, has already participated in ensuring a secure environment surrounding the Republic of Armenia."

In January 2025, the Armenian government formally approved the draft law "On Initiating the Process of Armenia's Accession to the European Union." Subsequently, in February, the Armenian parliament passed the bill, aimed at initiating the EU accession process, in its first reading. This series of actions provides institutional guarantees for Armenia's path to Europe.

02 Economic and Security Realities: A Difficult Balance Between East and West

The Pashinyan government's considerations regarding the balance between East and West reflect a distinct pragmatism. On the one hand, the EU's advantages in economic cooperation, political governance, and social development are attractive to Armenia. Joining the EU means potentially more international aid, broader market access, and advanced experience in institutional development.

On the other hand, the Eurasian Economic Union remains indispensable to Armenia's economic security. The Russian market is crucial for Armenia, with bilateral trade surging from $2.6 billion in 2021 to $7.3 billion in 2023. This trade growth has significantly boosted Armenia's GDP.

Armenia's predicament lies in its inherently disadvantageous geographical location. Deteriorating relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan have made its land trade highly dependent on the route through Georgia to Russia. This trade route, known as the "Northern Lifeline," accounts for more than 70% of Armenia's trade with Russia.

The strategic vulnerability created by transit dependence was laid bare during the crisis.

Security considerations are even more complex. Armenia has frozen its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and is seeking security guarantees from Brussels and Washington. The EU has deployed a civilian observer mission to Armenia, and US military officials have become key advisors to the Armenian Ministry of Defense.

Meanwhile, India has replaced Russia as Armenia's main arms supplier.

03 Domestic Politics and Social Consensus: The Challenges of Reform and Referendum

Pashinyan's repeated emphasis on "putting the will of the people at the core" stems from a clear division among the Armenian population regarding pro-EU and pro-Eurasian positions. Some hope to achieve faster modernization through EU membership, while others worry that leaving the Eurasian Economic Union will affect traditional interests.

According to the Armenian constitution, a referendum can only be held after Armenia and the EU have signed an agreement on EU accession. Pashinyan stated unequivocally: "Under any circumstances, only if, from the perspective of the Republic of Armenia, a referendum is held according to our prescribed procedures and a majority of votes are received in favor, can the Republic of Armenia become a member of the European Union."

Before the referendum, Armenia needs to discuss with the EU the roadmap for joining the EU. Pashinyan stated: "We must discuss with the EU their imagined roadmap and our imagined roadmap; we must jointly develop a roadmap."

Joining the EU is a lengthy process. Montenegro, for example, began accession negotiations more than a decade ago, and currently still has 30 chapters to be completed. North Macedonia waited twenty years from applying for accession to receiving acceptance from the EU.

04 Russia's Response: Economic Leverage and Strategic Countermeasures

Russia's reaction to Armenia's shift towards the West has been both firm and cautious. The Kremlin stated that Armenia's accession to the EU is its sovereign right, but explicitly emphasized that Armenia cannot simultaneously be a member of both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union.

In January, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that Russia viewed Armenia's domestic discussions on EU accession legislation as the beginning of its withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union, and would adjust its economic policy towards Armenia accordingly. Overchuk likened Armenia's desire to join the EU to "buying a ticket for the Titanic," warning that this move could have serious consequences for its economy.

Russia also possesses various economic countermeasures. Many Armenian producers rely on the Russian market, particularly in sectors like brandy, where 80% of their exports go to Russia. Russia could also use "technical" means, such as quarantine issues or security concerns, to disrupt Armenia's trade routes through Georgia.

Russia's military presence in Armenia is another complicating factor. The agreement for Russia's 102nd military base in Armenia is set to expire in 2044. This military presence represents Russia's interests in the region and also limits the possibility of large-scale Western military penetration into Armenia.

The road to EU accession is fraught with difficulties. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Orverchuk once warned that Armenia's desire to join the EU might be like "buying a ticket for the Titanic." The EU itself has not extended an invitation to Armenia to join. Former Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruil Ovanisyan pointed out that the relevant laws are not a formal application for EU membership, but rather reflect Armenia's desire to deepen its relations with the EU.