Aliyev's Absence from CIS Summit

On December 22, 2025, St. Petersburg was scheduled to host an informal New Year's summit showcasing the unity of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. However, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced at the last minute that he could not attend due to a "tight work schedule," dashing the Kremlin's hopes. Although Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed understanding and acceptance of this explanation, political scientist Arkady Dubnov pointed out that the decision was made only hours before the summit was scheduled to begin.

The tension in Russia-Azerbaijan relations is not a sudden event. On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. Aliyev subsequently publicly accused Russia of being responsible for the incident. Although Putin acknowledged during his meeting with Aliyev in Dushanbe this October that the explosion near the plane was caused by a Russian anti-aircraft missile and apologized, Azerbaijan believes the Kremlin has not yet offered an acceptable solution.

01 The Deep-seated Roots of the Crisis in Azerbaijan-Russia Relations

The crisis in Azerbaijan-Russia relations stems not only from the passenger plane incident but also from a series of complex historical and contemporary factors. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as a crucial platform connecting former Soviet republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has consistently faced problems of low implementation efficiency. Early statistics indicate that less than 10% of documents and agreements signed within the CIS are actually implemented.

In recent years, Azerbaijan has actively sought diplomatic diversification, particularly by strengthening relations with Western countries. In 2024, under US mediation, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace agreement, which included Washington's plan to develop a strategic transportation corridor in the South Caucasus. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan also signed a memorandum of understanding with NATO regarding military exercises.

Economically, Azerbaijan is also continuously adjusting its strategic layout. In August 2024, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRICS economic bloc and approved $120 million for expanding trade in goods with Russia. This move demonstrates Azerbaijan's efforts to balance its diplomacy and reflects its strategic consideration of not being overly reliant on any one side.

Regarding regional cooperation, Armenian Prime Minister Nigel Pashinyan thanked Ilham Aliyev on the eve of the summit for creating conditions for the launch of bilateral trade and announced that the first railcar carrying Azerbaijani oil products had arrived in Armenia. This development had sparked expectations that Aliyev and Pashinyan might meet in St. Petersburg.

02. Divisions and Challenges within the CIS

Aliyev's absence was not the first time a member state leader had been absent from the CIS. In October 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan refused to attend the CIS summit in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Pashinyan had publicly stated that "relying on only one partner in security matters is a strategic mistake."

Relations between Armenia and Russia have deteriorated since 2023. At that time, Azerbaijan launched a new military operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) failed to provide support to Armenia. Since then, Armenia has repeatedly missed CIS and CSTO activities.

This polarization is not an isolated case within the CIS. In 2022, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon publicly criticized Russia at the CIS summit, emphasizing that "we have always respected the interests of our main strategic partners...and we also want to be respected." He pointed out that ignoring the smaller republics of the Soviet Union was one of the reasons for its collapse.

These events reflect a reshuffling of power within the CIS. With changes in the international landscape, member states are adjusting their foreign policies according to their own interests, no longer blindly following Russia's leadership.

03. Geopolitics in the South Caucasus Under Great Power Competition

The geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus is undergoing profound changes. Russia's military operations in Ukraine have consumed significant diplomatic and military resources, impacting its influence in relations with countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, other major powers are increasingly active in the region. Japan held a summit with Central Asian countries, signing 34 cooperation agreements covering areas such as mining, infrastructure, and agriculture. Japan also pledged to invest 3 trillion yen to build a Caspian Sea transport route bypassing Russia.

Azerbaijan, as an energy and transportation hub connecting Eurasia, is increasingly strategically important. In 2024, Baku successfully hosted the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), demonstrating its participation in international affairs. Simultaneously, relations between Azerbaijan and Iran improved, and Azerbaijan reopened its embassy in Iran.

Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan's decision to skip the CIS summit reflects its strategic choice to seek balance in the great power game. The Aliyev government hopes to maintain traditional relations with Russia while also unwilling to relinquish opportunities for cooperation with the West.

04 The Future Direction of Russia-Azerbaijan Relations

Despite current difficulties in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, both sides still share common interests. Russia is an important economic partner of Azerbaijan, and the two countries have close cooperation in areas such as energy and trade. In August 2024, Aliyev and Putin met in Baku, reaching an agreement on expanding economic and trade cooperation.

The outcome of the plane crash will directly affect the future direction of bilateral relations. Putin has pledged to conduct a legal assessment of the actions of relevant officials after analyzing the cause of the crash. The extent to which this commitment is fulfilled will test the political trust between the two sides.

From a broader perspective, relations between Russia and the CIS countries are undergoing a period of adjustment. With the increasing national consciousness and diversified foreign relations among these countries, Russia is finding it difficult to maintain its dominant position in the post-Soviet space. However, due to historical ties and geographical proximity, Russia still retains considerable influence in these countries.

For Azerbaijan, its foreign policy will continue to unfold on a balanced and pragmatic basis. On the one hand, Baku will continue to participate in cooperation within the CIS framework; on the other hand, it will deepen relations with regional partners such as Turkey and further develop cooperation with Western countries.

The informal summit of CIS leaders has long been an important occasion for Russia to demonstrate its influence in the region. However, with changes in the geopolitical landscape, countries are adjusting their foreign policies according to their own interests. The decision of the Azerbaijani president's absence reflects the dynamic balancing process of international relations in the post-Soviet space.

In an era of simultaneous globalization and regionalization, the CIS countries both hope to maintain traditional ties and aspire to greater autonomy on the international stage. Russia needs to adapt to this new reality, while countries like Azerbaijan will continue to seek the path most suitable for their own development within a diversified diplomacy.