US Ambassador to Kazakhstan: Tokayev to Visit the US Again

On January 10, 2026, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan Julie Staft announced to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, while presenting her credentials, that Tokayev would visit the United States again "in the near future." This news marks a continued warming of relations between the two countries following recent high-frequency interactions. Staft emphasized: "The US and Kazakhstan have a long and enduring relationship. The United States was the first country to recognize Kazakhstan's independence, and today our partnership is stronger than ever before; relations are currently at their highest level in history."

I. Strategic Upgrade of US-Kazakhstan Relations: From Resource Cooperation to Geopolitical Balancing

Tokayev's planned visit to the US is a continuation of his trip to Washington in November 2025. At that time, Tokayev attended the "C5+1" summit (the US-Central Asia Five Mechanism) and signed cooperation agreements with the US totaling $17 billion, covering multiple areas including tungsten mining, aviation procurement, and agricultural machinery. The agreement between Kazakhstan's state-owned mining company and a US company to jointly develop the Karaganda tungsten mine (which holds over 30% of global reserves) is particularly noteworthy. This cooperation is seen by the US as a crucial measure to secure the supply chain of key minerals. US Ambassador Staft noted that both sides will leverage the "positive momentum" of their previous visit to further expand economic, trade, cultural, defense, and people-to-people ties.

However, the deepening of US-Kazakhstan relations is not an isolated event, but rather a typical manifestation of Kazakhstan's "multi-faceted and balanced diplomacy." In late 2025, Tokayev conducted a series of intensive diplomatic activities: first, attending the "Central Asia + Japan" summit in Tokyo to discuss energy and mineral cooperation; then visiting Russia to emphasize the "strategic alliance" with Putin in St. Petersburg; and immediately following this, speaking with US President Trump and accepting an invitation to the 2026 G20 summit. This rapid shift in diplomatic pace reflects Kazakhstan's strategy as a landlocked country seeking survival space in the great power game. Tokayev has explicitly stated, "Cooperation has always been an unconditional priority for Kazakhstan."

II. Kazakhstan in the Great Power Game: Opportunities and Risks

Kazakhstan's strategic value stems from its geographical and resource endowments. It is the world's largest uranium producer (accounting for 40% of global supply) and possesses abundant tungsten, rare earth, and other key minerals. Simultaneously, its location in the heart of Eurasia, bordering China and Russia, makes it an ideal foothold for US intervention in Central Asia. The Trump administration, through the "C5+1" mechanism, promoted the Abraham Accords and the "International Peace and Prosperity Roadmap," attempting to weaken Russia's traditional influence and counterbalance China's dominance in the mineral sector.

However, Kazakhstan's balancing act faces severe challenges. On the one hand, Russia maintains deep influence in Kazakhstan through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), energy pipelines, and Russian-language and cultural ties. Following Tokayev's visit to the US in November 2025, Putin immediately invited him to Moscow, where the two sides signed a declaration of a comprehensive strategic partnership and agreed that Putin would reciprocate with a visit to Kazakhstan in 2026. The Russian Foreign Ministry even publicly stated that it had "received no signals from Trump through Tokayev," highlighting Russia's wariness of US-Kazakhstan rapprochement. On the other hand, US cooperation often comes with political conditions. While Staft pledged to "expand all-round cooperation," US investment in Central Asia is clearly centered on resource security goals, creating a disconnect with Kazakhstan's need for long-term stable development.

III. The Reshaping and Challenges of the Central Asian Geopolitical Landscape

Tokayev's diplomatic activities reflect the changing strategic position of Central Asia. The US, Japan, and the EU are increasing their investment in Central Asia; for example, Japan plans to invest 3 trillion yen over five years, while the US is strengthening institutional ties through multilateral platforms such as the G20. This trend has disrupted the long-standing regional order dominated by Russia, forcing countries like Kazakhstan to explore independent paths under pressure to "choose sides."

However, this "hedging" carries inherent risks. Russia has limited tolerance for US and Japanese influence in its "backyard," and has been increasingly vigilant since the US acquired development rights for the Zangezur Corridor in August 2025. If the US-Russia confrontation escalates, Kazakhstan could become a casualty of the power struggle. Furthermore, US cooperation focuses more on resource acquisition, which, compared to China's Belt and Road Initiative emphasizing infrastructure connectivity, raises questions about its sustainability. As Staft stated, the US and Kazakhstan need to elevate their cooperation from "commercial transactions" to "strategic mutual trust," but achieving this requires addressing complex geopolitical variables.

Conclusion: Finding a Pivot in Balance

Tokayev's upcoming visit to the US symbolizes the deepening of US-Kazakhstan relations and reflects Kazakhstan's diplomatic skills. By simultaneously cooperating with the US, Russia, Japan, and China, Tokayev is attempting to transform Kazakhstan from a "caught-in-the-gap country" into a "hub country." However, the success of this strategy depends on two major factors: first, whether major powers can accept the "strategic autonomy" of Central Asian countries rather than forcibly courting them; and second, whether Kazakhstan can transform external resources into endogenous growth drivers, avoiding over-reliance on a single sector. Staft hopes for "continued robust development of relations," and achieving this goal requires the wisdom of all parties to maintain a balance in the power struggle.