A New Energy Landscape in Central Asia: Strategic Cooperation Between Turkmenistan's Giant Gas Field and China

The commencement of the fourth phase of development at Turkmenistan's Galkinnesh gas field marks a new stage in the development of the world's second-largest natural gas field. According to a report from the Turkmen government, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is about to begin work on the fourth phase of the project.

The successful phased development of this massive gas field enables Turkmenistan to secure a reliable supply of natural gas to both domestic and international markets. Once fully operational, the Galkinnesh gas field is expected to produce approximately 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually, with Turkmenistan providing full funding for the fourth phase of development.

01 The Strategic Value of the World's Second-Largest Natural Gas Field

Located in the Mari region of southern Turkmenistan, the Galkinnesh gas field is hailed as the world's second-largest onshore gas field. Its scale is remarkable: estimated natural gas reserves range from 4 trillion to 14 trillion cubic meters, with proven commercially recoverable reserves of 2.8 trillion cubic meters.

More macro-level data shows that the total reserves of the Galkinnesh gas field and the nearby Galakol and Yashlar gas fields are estimated at a staggering 27.4 trillion cubic meters. This reserve size is sufficient to meet annual exports of 200 billion cubic meters and sustain them for decades.

The Galkinnesh oil field is divided into seven development zones. Currently, only the first phase of the project is operational, with an annual production of approximately 30 billion cubic meters. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) are negotiating the development of the second and third phases.

Turkmenistan is providing full funding for the fourth phase of development.

02 The Deepening Path of China-Turkmenistan Energy Cooperation

China-Turkmenistan energy cooperation began in 2007 when China and Turkmenistan signed a cooperation agreement, with China providing an $8.1 billion loan. This loan was equivalent to 40% of Turkmenistan's GDP at the time—a massive sum.

The core of the cooperation is the development of the Galkinnesh gas field and the construction of the Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline. The construction of this pipeline is extremely challenging, requiring it to traverse three countries and cross complex terrain including deserts and mountains. However, the Chinese team achieved a miracle by building the 1,833-kilometer pipeline in just two years.

The Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline (CAPI) currently supplies approximately 40 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually. This supply makes China Turkmenistan's largest buyer of natural gas.

More importantly, Turkmenistan has diversified its energy exports through this cooperation. After the pipeline's operation, Turkmenistan's natural gas exports to China surged from zero to 90%, its foreign exchange reserves tripled in three years, and its GDP growth rate remained stable at 6% annually.

03 Turkmenistan's Export Diversification Strategy

Although China is Turkmenistan's largest buyer of natural gas, "diversification of export routes remains the cornerstone of Turkmenistan's gas policy." The Turkmenistan government is actively exploring multiple export route options.

The Trans-Afghanistan Gas Pipeline (TAPI) project is one such option. The TAPI pipeline is designed to transport 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually, but construction progress in Afghanistan has been slow.

In recent months, Turkmen officials have also expressed interest in building a trans-Caspian gas pipeline, making it possible to export large quantities of natural gas to the European Union.

The EU's total natural gas consumption is estimated at 320 billion cubic meters by 2025, representing a potentially large market.

Turkmenistan's need to diversify its natural gas exports is long-standing. In the early days of independence, natural gas exports were entirely controlled by Russia. Later, through actively developing trade relations with Iran and China, it has established a natural gas export pattern with exports to Russia in the north, Iran in the south, and China in the east.

04 Reshaping the Regional Energy Landscape

The Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline is not only an energy corridor but also a significant shaper of the regional energy landscape. This pipeline originated from the Soviet-era pipeline network and was restructured under the framework of Sino-Turkmenistan cooperation after 2006. Between 2009 and 2014, three main lines were completed, with initial financing reaching $11 billion.

More than 80% of Turkmenistan's natural gas exports flow to China, giving Beijing a dominant position in its energy export system.

Meanwhile, the Galkinnesh gas field has also been designated as a resource base for the TAPI pipeline, demonstrating its multiple roles in regional energy security.

China-Turkmenistan energy cooperation extends beyond natural gas extraction. Once completed, the Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline D line, jointly constructed by the two countries, will increase annual gas supply capacity from the current 40 billion cubic meters to 65 billion cubic meters.

Long-term plans even reach 85 billion cubic meters, further strengthening energy ties between China and Central Asia.

05 Energy Geopolitics from a Global Perspective

Turkmenistan's natural gas development is at a crossroads of great power competition. The EU has long supported plans to import natural gas from Turkmenistan, especially given recent soaring gas prices and strained relations with Russia.

The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project, connecting Turkmenistan and the southern gas corridor of Azerbaijan, may be restarted, offering Europe one way to bypass Russia and obtain Central Asian gas.

At the same time, the United States has also shown interest in regional energy affairs. A US company founded by former BP executives has proposed a gas pipeline connecting western Turkmenistan's gas fields with eastern Azerbaijan's gas fields via the Caspian Sea.

The EU ambassador to Turkmenistan called the project the "most feasible" and "most viable" trans-Caspian project.

Russia may exert pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to block such projects and avoid competition with Russian gas exports.

With the advancement of the Central Asia Gas Pipeline D and the subsequent development of the Galkinnesh gas field, China's coordinated layout in the upstream and transit links of Central Asian gas is deepening. This pipeline has become an important part of China's onshore energy corridor.

For Turkmenistan, the strategy of diversifying gas exports will not change. As the Turkmen government has emphasized, "Diversification of export routes remains the cornerstone of Turkmenistan's gas policy."