The US and Armenia unveil TRIPP development blueprint, reshaping the geoeconomic landscape of the Caucasus.

A corridor approximately 40 kilometers long, with a US-owned (74%) development company granted a 49-year exclusive operating right, represents a subtle shift in the Eurasian trade landscape.

On January 13, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington, officially launching the implementation framework of the "Trump Road to International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP). This initiative stems from the peace agreement reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan in August 2025, brokered by the US, which ended decades of conflict between the two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

TRIPP, the new name for this strategic corridor, not only connects mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan, but also has the potential to become a significant variable in altering the logistical and geopolitical landscape of Eurasia.

01 The Strategic Value and Background of the Trade Corridor

The South Caucasus region has historically been a crossroads of major powers' interests, and the Zangezur Corridor is a vital artery in this region. This approximately 40-kilometer-long corridor connects the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan to the mainland, making it of immense strategic value.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia were locked in a long-standing conflict over the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR) region, leading to the closure of the Zangezur Corridor for 30 years. This forced transportation between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave to detour through Iran or via air.

In August 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace agreement under US mediation, agreeing to reopen the corridor. The US obtained a 99-year exclusive development right and renamed it the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP).

For the US, controlling this corridor means gaining a new strategic foothold in the heart of Eurasia. From an economic perspective, TRIPP is expected to shorten the transportation distance between Eurasia, reducing the east-west transport corridor by hundreds of kilometers compared to existing routes. From a geopolitical perspective, the United States can use this corridor to contain Russia to the north, deter Iran to the south, and radiate eastward to the five Central Asian countries.

02 Key Contents and Innovative Arrangements of the TRIPP Framework

According to the Memorandum of Understanding signed on January 13, 2026, the TRIP framework showcases a series of innovative institutional designs.

Regarding the equity structure, a joint venture called TRIPP Development Company will be established, with the United States holding 74% and Armenia holding the remaining shares. This joint venture will obtain exclusive development and operation rights for 49 years. After the initial term expires, both parties can choose to extend the exclusive operating rights for 50 years, at which time Armenia's shareholding will increase to 49%.

Regarding the operating model, TRIPP will adopt a unique "front-end and back-end" model. Front-end operations are handled by a "third-party operator," including document processing, payment handling, and system maintenance; Armenian national institutions form the "back-end operations department," retaining full authority over border control, such as customs decisions, security checks, and immigration control.

Regarding security, the framework maintains strategic ambiguity. The document explicitly states that Armenia retains full jurisdiction within its sovereign territory, but simultaneously implies that private contractors may undertake routine security work along the TRIPP route, noting that "the hiring of private security personnel requires Armenian permission."

Notably, the preamble to the framework emphasizes that these arrangements are "not immutable" and "do not impose, nor intend to impose, any legal commitments or obligations on the United States or Armenia," leaving room for future adjustments.

03 Great Power Rivalry and the Reshaping of Regional Balance

The signing of the TRIPP framework marks a significant shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus, particularly the decline of Russian influence. Russia maintained its influence in the South Caucasus through mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 diverted Russia's strategic resources and weakened its position as the region's security guarantor.

More importantly, Armenia's setbacks in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have shaken the traditional alliance between Armenia and Russia, prompting Armenia to seek stronger cooperation with the West.

For Iran, the TRIPP corridor poses a direct challenge. Iran values ​​its more than 40-kilometer-long border with Armenia, viewing it as a northern passage to Russia and Europe. If the "Trump corridor" opens, Iran's northern border with Armenia will be effectively closed, and Tehran's influence in regional affairs will be diminished.

Turkey, as a significant regional power, has shown a complex attitude towards the TRIPP framework. Although Ankara has not officially expressed strong opposition to the agreement, it harbors deep-seated discontent. Frequently non-diplomatic remarks by US Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barak have displeased the Turkish political elite.

04 Implementation Challenges and Future Uncertainties

Although the TRIPP framework agreement has been signed, its implementation prospects still face numerous challenges. The memorandum does not include a proposed implementation timetable, and Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan has also acknowledged that "many details still need to be finalized."

Terrain and security risks are the primary obstacles. This approximately 40-kilometer-long route traverses mountainous terrain at high altitudes, posing challenges to the construction and operation of infrastructure such as roads, railways, and natural gas pipelines. Furthermore, there are concerns about potential sabotage by armed groups supporting Iran.

Political risks cannot be ignored. There is strong opposition to the project within Armenia, with many arguing that its construction infringes on certain aspects of its sovereignty. Azerbaijan's demand for Armenia to amend its constitution and remove references to Azerbaijani territory has sparked considerable controversy within Armenia and faces strong opposition from nationalist factions.

The Russian factor is also a potential variable. While the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed a "cautious welcome" to the peace agreement, it emphasized that Armenia-Azerbaijan reconciliation must be considered within the broader regional context. Russia points out that the previous trilateral agreement between Russia and Armenia remains valid, granting Russia the right to deploy border troops along the relevant route, providing a potential basis for Russian involvement in the corridor.

Finally, the return on investment remains uncertain. The TRIPP development company will generate revenue through various means, including infrastructure usage fees, service fees, property leasing, and commercial activities. However, the willingness of US companies to participate in projects requiring long-term, substantial investment and carrying high political risk remains to be seen.

The future development of the TRIPP corridor will depend on the interaction of multiple factors. On the one hand, the US is attempting to promote a systematic, low-cost, and efficient operational model across Eurasia through its "corridor strategy," with the Zangezur corridor serving as its testing ground.

On the other hand, Armenia will hold parliamentary elections in June 2026, and the drafting of a new constitution may influence the ultimate fate of TRIPP.

A single corridor affects multiple stakeholders. As one analyst stated, "The South Caucasus is gradually opening up to the world, and the region is integrating into the global development trend," and the TRIPP corridor will be a crucial touchstone for testing this process.