The turmoil in Iran threatens multilateral policies and regional stability in Central Asia.

The five Central Asian countries stand at a geopolitical crossroads, worried that instability in their southern neighbor Iran could jeopardize their painstakingly crafted multilateral diplomatic and economic development plans.

Serious unrest in Iran could plunge Central Asia into a geographical dead end. This landlocked region has historically struggled to access world markets unimpeded, with all transit routes passing through neighboring countries.

Key logistical routes to South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and East Africa, particularly seaports and land transport lines, pass through Iran and Pakistan. Losing these southern transit routes would directly impact Central Asian countries' export capacity and market diversification strategies.

01. Disrupted Trade Routes and Rising Economic Costs

Instability in Iran has prompted Central Asian countries to reassess their trade routes. Uzbekistan is urgently assessing logistical arrangements with some of its Central Asian neighbors that need adjustment due to the Middle East conflict, even though this could increase transportation costs by 30%.

Last month, Uzbek and Iranian officials met in Tehran and agreed to quadruple bilateral trade to $2 billion annually. The feasibility of this plan, which provides Central Asian exporters with access to the Indian Ocean and further international markets, is now clouded.

Kazakh officials have also warned that southern logistics routes could be disrupted. Central Asian countries are seeking alternatives to traditional transit routes to reduce dependence on Moscow or Chinese infrastructure, and Iran had initially offered an attractive option.

Central Asian leaders demonstrated visionary economic leadership in 2024, successfully balancing political relations with Russia, China, Europe, and Turkey amid instability in Afghanistan, Iran, and Ukraine. However, the deteriorating situation in Iran will test this balancing act.

02 Security Threats and Increased Border Pressure

Instability in Iran could exacerbate the Afghan crisis, posing a significant risk of socio-economic shocks. Tehran is a crucial economic partner for Afghanistan, playing a key role in providing fuel, food, electricity, and port access.

If the situation in Iran deteriorates, Afghanistan, already facing a severe humanitarian crisis, could experience a complete economic collapse, triggering an uncontrolled influx of migrants and the spread of radical ideologies, posing a direct threat to the border security of Central Asian countries.

Iran has a population of over 90 million. If even 10% of its population were forced to flee, it would create one of the largest refugee crises of this century. These refugees would likely head east through Afghanistan into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The capacity to prepare for a refugee crisis is unevenly distributed among Central Asian countries. Tajikistan, as the only Persian-speaking country in Central Asia, has deep cultural and linguistic ties with Iran and could become a destination for Iranian refugees, but its capacity to receive refugees is very limited.

Uzbekistan adopted a strict border policy during the Afghan crisis in 2021, with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev explicitly stating that he would not accept large numbers of refugees. This policy could be repeated if the situation in Iran collapses.

03. Setbacks to Multilateral Cooperation Mechanisms and Regional Integration

The Iranian crisis puts pressure on regional cooperation mechanisms and could undermine trust in multilateral frameworks. The current situation exposes the limited capacity of existing regional cooperation mechanisms, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), and the Organization of Turkic States, to safeguard collective security.

If these organizations fail to coordinate their responses to external threats, their reputation and operational capabilities will be damaged. Central Asian countries will have to find a balance between official statements, practical policies, and international pressure, making the implementation of multilateral policies more difficult.

In 2024, regional cooperation in Central Asia steadily improved, and the economy remained stable. The Sixth Annual Consultation Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State, held in Astana in August, demonstrated the dynamism of regional diplomacy among Central Asian countries. However, the turbulent situation in Iran could disrupt this positive trend.

The "Five Central Asian States" (Central Asia Five) serves as a regional dialogue platform and is an important measure taken by Central Asian countries to cope with the complex geopolitical environment. The success of this platform is crucial for Central Asian countries to safeguard their common interests in global affairs, while external shocks may test the resilience of this emerging mechanism.

04 Great Power Competition and Narrowing Strategic Choice Space

The Iranian crisis will cause Central Asian countries to lose their strategic leverage in balancing their dependence on Russia and China. The southern corridor through Iran and Pakistan has long been seen as a way to reduce dependence on a single source of power from the north and east. With Iran unstable, Central Asian countries' ability to counterbalance their powerful neighbors through diversification of transportation, trade, and energy routes will diminish.

Central Asian countries may be forced to become more dependent on Russia and China. However, Russia itself faces its own challenges. As one Russian expert pointed out, "Russia cannot and should not bear the sole responsibility for defending Central Asia."

China views Central Asia as a key part of its ambitious infrastructure plans. If instability in Iran leads to increased dependence on China among Central Asian countries, this increased dependence could turn the region into a strategically important but geopolitically more vulnerable sphere of influence, limiting its diplomatic independence.

The attitude of the United States and Western countries towards Central Asia is primarily pragmatic. From the West's perspective, Central Asia is mainly seen as a resource base, its importance lying primarily in its potential to weaken the influence of Russia and China. This attitude may limit the strategic options available to Central Asian countries on the international stage.

05 Internal Stability and Long-Term Development Risks

The Iranian crisis may exacerbate the socio-economic challenges within Central Asian countries. In 2024, despite challenges, the five Central Asian countries maintained economic growth: Kazakhstan's GDP growth rate was 3.6%, Kyrgyzstan's was 6.3%, Tajikistan's was 6.5%, Turkmenistan's was 6.5%, and Uzbekistan's was 6.0%. However, regional instability could jeopardize this growth momentum.

The turbulent situation in Iran could affect the progress of important infrastructure projects in Central Asia. For example, the financing situation for the Kyrgyz section of the Kashgar-Andijan railway remains unclear. The agreement reached by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to jointly fund the construction of the Kambalata Dam may also be affected.

Central Asian countries also face internal political challenges. Tajikistan's domestic political situation was dominated by rumors of a coup, followed by a series of arrests. In Kyrgyzstan, there were reports of assassination attempts against the president and the chairman of the National Security Council. A deteriorating external environment could exacerbate these internal pressures.

Religious extremism could seize the opportunity to expand. Iran has long been a bulwark against the spillover of terrorist forces. If Iran descends into chaos, extremists could seize the opportunity to return to Central Asia, and even infiltrate China's Xinjiang border region.

Central Asian countries are actively seeking countermeasures. Uzbekistan has begun diversifying its export routes, shifting goods to safer ports. Kazakhstan has stated that its contingency plans are in place.

Russia and China share a common interest in maintaining stability in Central Asia. Both countries are motivated to prevent external forces from using the instability in Iran to infiltrate Central Asia, but their methods and priorities may differ.

For Central Asian countries, maintaining sovereignty and independent decision-making power will be key to future challenges. In an era of increasingly fierce great power competition, the ability to maintain a pragmatic foreign policy will be the best guarantee for Central Asian countries to cope with the instability in Iran.