The Transformation of the US C5+1 Mechanism: Substantive Transactions and Global Supply Chain Restructuring in the Geoeconomic Landscape of Central Asia

On November 6, 2025, the C5+1 Summit hosted by the United States in Washington marked a significant shift in this multilateral dialogue mechanism. The US President, along with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, shifted the focus of the talks from broad diplomatic dialogue to concrete, actionable transactions. This shift reflects the reality of accelerated adjustments in the global supply chain landscape and the strategic choices of Central Asia in the context of great power competition. Based on publicly available information, this article provides a global perspective on the summit's cooperation framework, key developments, and its impact on regional economic integration.

I. From Dialogue to Transactions: The Strategic Upgrade of the C5+1 Mechanism

Established in 2015, the C5+1 mechanism has long served as a platform for the United States and the five Central Asian countries to discuss regional security, economic, and governance issues. This summit, through substantive orders and cooperation initiatives, highlighted the concrete implementation of the US's "de-risking" strategy in Central Asia. While the summit's joint statement was not publicly released, officials from all parties emphasized cooperation on key raw materials, indicating that building supply chain resilience has become a core issue. The private sector's deep involvement through the B5+1 platform combined business processes and policy dialogues across mining, processing, logistics, and services, complementing inter-national commitments. This "government-led, business-driven" model aims to rapidly advance demonstrable short-term results to validate the effectiveness of the cooperation mechanism.

To ensure transparency, the US and participating governments released meeting minutes and company filings, clearly defining cooperation tools, value scale, financing arrangements, timelines, and responsible entities. For example, the US Department of Commerce publicly established the "C5+1 Cooperation Zone," with a total scale of "over $25 billion," as a demonstration framework. Although specific projects still require inter-company agreements and national approvals, a unified narrative framework helps shape public perception.

II. Cooperation in Key Areas: Aviation and Mining as Dual Engines

The summit's outcomes focused on two major areas: aviation and key minerals, which together form the cornerstone of supply chain decarbonization and logistics upgrades.

Aviation Cooperation: Fleet Upgrades and Route Expansion

- Uzbekistan Airlines has converted its options for eight Boeing 787-9 aircraft into firm orders, bringing its total Dreamliner order to 22. The order has been added to Boeing's pipeline, and financing and ground preparations are underway. The introduction of wide-body aircraft must comply with ETOPS-180 extended-range operation standards, involving dispatcher training and simulator training.

- Somon Air of Tajikistan plans to introduce up to four 787-9s and ten 737 MAXs, marking its first foray into wide-body aircraft. Subsequent steps include contract signing, financing plan development, and the establishment of maintenance and support capabilities.

- Astana Air of Kazakhstan has selected up to 15 787-9s. The next steps will involve arranging delivery schedules, raising funds, and deciding on a sale-leaseback or operating lease arrangement.

Airline orders are not only commercial transactions but are also seen as a sign of improved regional connectivity. The choice of engine for the 787-9 (Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 TEN or GE Genx-1B) will determine subsequent maintenance and training pathways, indirectly impacting competition on supply chain technology standards.

Key Minerals: Supply Chain Restructuring and Financing Innovation

Rare earths and related raw materials were at the heart of the talks, with differentiated approaches from country to country:

- Kazakhstan advanced cooperation on the North Kapar and Upper Kelakt tungsten mines (approximately $1.1 billion). The Export-Import Bank of the United States issued a letter of intent to jointly invest approximately $900 million with Kazakhstan's national mining company, Tau-Ken Samruk, on a 70/30 basis. While the letter of intent is non-binding, it has initiated due diligence and terms negotiations.

- Uzbekistan signed rare earth cooperation agreements with Denali Exploration Group and ReElement Technologies, and reached an agreement with Fossil Corporation on a pumping station industry.

- Kyrgyzstan focused on promoting hydropower upgrades and transportation projects, but did not secure new financing instruments; Turkmenistan, despite the president's participation, did not release any bilateral cooperation documents.

Mineral cooperation faces bottlenecks due to processing restrictions imposed by the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act. Customs classification uses Harmonized System (HS) codes (tungsten under HS code 8101, rare earths under HS codes 2805 and 2846), while project financing must comply with mineral industry resource disclosure standards, including geological sampling and reserve assessment processes.

III. Financing and Regulations: Institutional Guarantees for Project Implementation

Early-stage financing signals drive projects from intention to implementation:

- A letter of intent from the Export-Import Bank of the United States provides the possibility of long-term debt, prompting the purchaser to initiate terms negotiations.

- The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation can fund feasibility studies ranging from mining and metallurgical flowcharts to aviation simulators.

- The Department of Commerce's Commercial Law Development Program assists partner countries in improving commercial law and procurement mechanisms, and promotes the International Federation of Consulting Engineers' standard engineering contract template.

Regulatory integration is a key challenge. U.S. export control regulations and other sanctions restrict the flow of components and raw materials and payment settlement; logistical bottlenecks (such as port loading and unloading in intermediate corridors and Caspian Sea shipping schedule coordination) need to be alleviated through CIM/SMGS electronic rail waybills and increased Caspian Sea roll-on/roll-off shipping services. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the EU's Trans-European Transport Network initiative have prioritized customs coordination.

IV. Central Asia's Geoeconomic Transformation from a Global Perspective

This summit reflects a shift in Central Asia's trend from geopolitical alignment to a more diversified rules-based system:

1. Standards and Financing as Leverage: Aviation certification, mineral processing standards, and export credit terms determine supply chain path dependence. Technical specifications influence the scope of procurement, while credit terms determine the timing of purchases.

2. The Value of Networked Interconnectivity: Combining transport corridors with interoperable documentation, customs procedures, and mutual recognition of certifications is essential to improving cargo flow efficiency. For example, the intermediate corridor needs to address issues of rail interoperability and standardization of electronic waybills.

3. Institutionalization of Small Multilateral Mechanisms: C5+1 transforms one-off transactions into regularized cooperation through standardized procurement processes and dispute resolution mechanisms. Combining multiple credit sources with standardized pathways enhances the resilience of Central Asian countries' connections to global markets.

V. Challenges and Prospects: The Path from Agreement to Implementation

The summit's outcomes still face three major obstacles:

1. Financing Implementation: Letters of intent need to be translated into binding loan agreements and must comply with international financial institutions' environmental and social standards.

2. Capacity Building: Mineral processing and aircraft maintenance capabilities need to be embedded in the early stages of projects, rather than added later, to enhance regional value retention.

3. Geoeconomic Balance: Central Asian countries need to seek a balance within multiple rule systems involving the US, EU, China, and Russia, avoiding over-reliance on a single partner.

The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act's local content requirements in processing, Russia's influence on traditional energy supply chains, and the existing infrastructure of China's Belt and Road Initiative all pose variables. The pragmatic choices of Central Asian countries may manifest as "multi-party alliances," that is, selecting the optimal technology-finance combination for specific projects.

Conclusion

The Washington Summit marks a significant turning point for the C5+1 mechanism, moving from abstract dialogue to substantive transactions. Airline orders and mineral cooperation highlight the US's focus on supply chain resilience to promote Central Asia's deep participation in the restructuring of the global industrial chain. However, the effectiveness of cooperation depends on actual progress in closure of financing channels, compatibility of rules, and resolution of logistical bottlenecks. For the five Central Asian countries, institutionalized small-scale multilateral cooperation offers a historic opportunity to expand their geoeconomic space, but its success requires more than just headlines; it relies on the support of grassroots institutional development, such as mutual recognition of documents, customs coordination, and standards. The evolution of the global supply chain landscape is being redefined by this kind of detailed collaboration.