The Situation in Afghanistan Impacts Central Asia: Balancing Security and Development

On December 24, 2025, a firefight occurred on the Tajik-Afghan border, resulting in the deaths of two Tajik border guards and three Afghan militants. This was the third such attack in the region within a month, further escalating tensions across Central Asia.

At the time of these incidents, a UN Security Council report indicated that the number of members of the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, Afghanistan, had increased to approximately 2,000. This group is recruiting not only within Afghanistan but also throughout Central Asia.

01 Escalating Security Challenges: Border Conflicts and the Spread of Terrorism

By the end of 2025, a series of armed conflicts had occurred along the Tajik-Afghanistan border, indicating that Afghan security risks were spilling over into neighboring regions. Tajik political scientist Sheralli Rizoyan pointed out that such incidents prove that the threat from Afghanistan has not disappeared with the Taliban's rise to power.

Besides direct military conflict, drug trafficking is another major security concern. Tajik officials believe that some of the attacks are related to drug trafficking. Despite Afghan authorities' claims of cracking down on drug production, the amount of drugs seized at the Tajik border remains substantial, highlighting a significant disparity between the two countries.

Security expert Rustam Brnashev analyzes that the challenges faced by various countries in Central Asia differ. Tajikistan's most immediate concern is the risk of militant infiltration and refugee influx. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, on the other hand, are more focused on water resource issues.

The extremist ideology and activities of ISIS have spread throughout South Asia, and the chaos in Afghanistan could lead to its further spillover into Central Asia. Furthermore, the chaos in Afghanistan has also led to the increasing activity of extremist forces within Central Asia.

02 Water Resource Disputes: The Sino-Afghan Game Over the Amu Darya Canal Project

The Kosh-Tepa Canal project, being built by Afghanistan on the Amu Darya River, has become a sensitive issue in Central Asia-Afghanistan relations by 2025. Environmental experts estimate that this canal could divert 20% of the Amu Darya's water, leading to a water crisis downstream.

Central Asian countries are acutely aware of the importance of water resource allocation. In 2018, cross-border water resource utilization was listed as a key issue at a consultation meeting of Central Asian heads of state, and an opportunity for resolution emerged.

For Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, two downstream Amu Darya countries, Afghanistan's water conservancy projects are directly related to their agricultural lifeline. The competition for water resources is not only an economic issue but also a potential security threat, which could trigger regional tensions.

Afghanistan's water resource management not only concerns its own agricultural development but also has a profound impact on the allocation of water resources throughout Central Asia. This issue, along with border security, constitutes a dual challenge facing Central Asian countries.

03 Economic Integration: The Strategic Value of Railway Connectivity

Faced with security challenges, Central Asian countries are seeking breakthroughs through economic cooperation. Alisher Ilkhamov, director of the London-based Central Asia Due Diligence, emphasized the importance of two railway lines: the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan line and the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan line.

These projects help Central Asia maintain its connection with global markets when traditional logistics routes via Russia are disrupted.

Regional connectivity faces new opportunities. All five Central Asian countries are landlocked, making the development of transportation infrastructure extremely urgent. In 2023, the China-Central Asia Summit also prioritized stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan, discussing several large-scale infrastructure projects, including the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway.

At the local level, a small free trade zone with a wholesale market has been established near the Termez-Afghanistan bridge in southern Uzbekistan to facilitate business for Afghan merchants. Such measures not only increase employment but also help ease border tensions.

04 Differentiated Strategies: Central Asian Countries' Responses

Based on their respective geopolitical locations and national interests, the five Central Asian countries have adopted differentiated strategies regarding the Afghan issue. Tajikistan, with its 1,300-kilometer border with Afghanistan, faces the greatest security pressure and therefore focuses on strengthening border control and military defense.

Uzbekistan places greater emphasis on the role of economic leverage. All three countries bordering Afghanistan have maintained or even expanded their trade and economic ties with the de facto Afghan authorities. In 2025, the parties established a contact group on Afghanistan at the special representative level, holding its first meeting in Tashkent in August, and agreed to consider each other's interests.

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, not directly bordering Afghanistan, face relatively less security threats. Notably, both countries have removed the Taliban from their terrorist organization lists, indicating a shift towards pragmatic dialogue.

This differentiated strategy reflects a rational calculation of each country's own interests. Sherali Rizoyan believes that while there is some coordination among the countries, it is too early to say that a unified strategy has been formed.

05 The Role of Major Powers and Regional Cooperation Mechanisms

Central Asian countries maintain a multilateral, balanced diplomacy on the Afghan issue. On the one hand, they utilize regional mechanisms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), while on the other hand, they maintain pragmatic cooperation with major powers such as the US, China, and Russia.

The SCO has an irreplaceable influence on resolving the Afghan issue. With the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), all of Afghanistan's neighboring countries (except Turkmenistan) became member states, and Afghanistan became an observer. In 2023, the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group held a ministerial meeting to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.

The United States' role in Afghanistan is highly controversial. The irresponsible withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan led to a deterioration of the security situation within the country and a sharp increase in security risks for neighboring Central Asian countries. Central Asian countries are generally disappointed with the manner of the US withdrawal and are cautious about the US's intention to deploy military bases.

In 2025, the United Nations established the Sustainable Development Goals Regional Centre for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty, Kazakhstan, aiming to promote regional cooperation, incubate development projects, and promote the implementation of sustainable development programs. This mechanism provides a new platform for coordinating the interests of all parties.

As 2026 approaches, Central Asian countries will continue to seek a balance between security and development. Kazakhstan is exploring the construction of a railway in Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan is establishing a free trade zone in its border region; these moves demonstrate that economic cooperation will become an important lever for stabilizing the region.

Regional experts predict that even with risks and unforeseen events, the trend of economic exchange will not reverse in 2026, at most slowing down. The most critical variable remains the allocation of water resources along the Amu Darya River, which will be a crucial litmus test for relations between Central Asia and Afghanistan.

For Afghanistan itself, 2026 will be fraught with challenges, riddled with internal problems. The stability of Central Asia directly depends on whether its member states can coordinate and formulate a unified response strategy.