Russia's gas supplies to Uzbekistan have increased by 30%

The gas supply landscape in Central Asia is undergoing profound changes. By 2025, Russia's gas supplies to Uzbekistan are projected to increase by approximately 30%, reaching a total of about 7 billion cubic meters, primarily transported via the Central Asia-Mainland pipeline system.

This shift occurs against the backdrop of diverging gas production trends among Central Asian countries. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, Uzbekistan's domestic gas production is declining, with output decreasing by 4.5% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, equivalent to approximately 2 billion cubic meters. In contrast, Kazakhstan's commercial gas production increased by over 10% year-on-year during the same period, reaching approximately 3.5 billion cubic meters. Turkmenistan's production is estimated to have increased by 3%, reaching a total output of approximately 80 billion cubic meters.

Meanwhile, Central Asia's gas exports to China have decreased by approximately 5% year-on-year, equivalent to a reduction of over 2.5 billion cubic meters.

01 Russia's Energy Strategy Shifts Towards the Central Asian Market

Russia's natural gas exports to Europe once reached a record 201 billion cubic meters, but with the closure of the Yamal and Nord Stream pipelines, exports plummeted to 4.95 billion cubic meters in 2024. This dramatic shift forced Russia to seek new natural gas export markets.

Central Asia has become an important new market for Russian gas. The Central Asia-Central Asia pipeline system, built during the Soviet era, was originally intended to transport Turkmen natural gas through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to Russia. Now, it operates in the reverse direction, with an annual transport capacity of approximately 50 billion cubic meters.

Russia prices its natural gas in Central Asia significantly lower than in the European market. In 2023, Russian gas sold to Uzbekistan at $160 per thousand cubic meters, while European prices fluctuated between $200 and $400 in the 2010s. Russia's low-price sales are politically motivated, aimed at maintaining its alliance with Central Asian countries.

At the 2024 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Kazakhstan's Gazprom and Gazprom signed a 15-year agreement, committing to continue supplying gas to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan until at least 2040. This long-term agreement provides stability to Russia's energy strategy in Central Asia.

02 Energy Security Challenges and Responses in Central Asian Countries

Uzbekistan's energy predicament is particularly prominent. Its natural gas production has fallen from 66 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 44.6 billion cubic meters in 2024. The International Energy Agency attributes Uzbekistan's production decline to the deterioration of upstream infrastructure reliability.

Faced with declining domestic production, Uzbekistan actively sought import solutions. In 2023, Uzbekistan officially became a net importer of natural gas. By launching the historic "Central Asia-Central Asia Pipeline," the country quickly converted it to a reverse transmission mode, rapidly beginning to receive Russian natural gas resources.

Kazakhstan, on the other hand, adopted a different strategy. Kazakhstan not only increased its purchases of Russian natural gas but also vigorously developed its domestic natural gas production. Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company plans to increase natural gas production to 6.7 billion cubic meters per year by 2030.

Kyrgyzstan's natural gas consumption remains stable at approximately 500 million cubic meters per year. Bishkek, with a long-term perspective, has signed contracts extending to 2040, essential for securing fuel supplies for new energy facilities.

03. China Market and Diversification of Central Asian Energy Exports

The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline plays a crucial role as a vital energy artery in the region. Approximately 10,000 kilometers long, it is one of the world's longest natural gas pipelines. The pipeline consists of two parallel lines, A and B, each 1,833 kilometers long, with line C already completed.

As of November 2024, the Central Asia Gas Pipeline had cumulatively transported over 500 billion cubic meters of gas to China. This figure highlights the importance of the Chinese market to Central Asian energy exports. However, in 2025, Central Asian natural gas exports to China are projected to decrease by approximately 5% year-on-year, equivalent to a reduction of over 2.5 billion cubic meters.

Central Asian countries have developed a new energy cooperation model in practice: importing Russian gas at low prices to meet domestic demand, while simultaneously exporting their own gas resources to China at higher prices. In early 2025, both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan saw significant increases in natural gas exports to China, clearly indicating that while importing Russian gas at low prices, they were selling their own gas resources to China at higher prices.

The construction of the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline D will further enhance regional energy interconnectivity. The D pipeline uses the Renaissance gas field in Turkmenistan as its gas source, passing through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan before entering China. It is 1,000 kilometers long and designed to transport 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

04 Energy Games in the Geopolitical Landscape

Russia is consolidating its influence in Central Asia through energy cooperation. In March 2025, Russia and Kazakhstan reached an agreement on deep energy system interconnection, establishing a joint power dispatch mechanism. The premium for cross-border power transmission was reduced from 15% to 2.5%, significantly lowering Kazakhstan's emergency power purchase costs. These initiatives are seen as key steps in Russia's efforts to rebuild a unified Pan-Central Asian energy system.

The EU and Turkey are also actively expanding energy cooperation with Central Asian countries. The EU, hosting a summit in Samarkand in April 2025, pledged substantial investment, focusing on energy and transportation, aiming to build regional corridors bypassing Russia through projects such as the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. Turkey, since 2024, has held dedicated summits with Central Asian countries, leveraging historical and cultural ties and economic and trade cooperation to continuously expand its influence.

Central Asian countries maintain flexible diplomacy amidst great power competition, striving for a balanced relationship of "multi-party alignment." This balanced diplomacy allows Central Asian countries to maintain traditional relations with Russia while expanding cooperation with other major powers.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) plays a crucial role in regional energy cooperation. The organization systematically addresses major regional issues, including drug trafficking, terrorism, separatism, and extremism, and provides security for energy infrastructure.

05 Energy Transition and Regional Sustainable Development

Central Asian countries are actively promoting energy diversification. The nuclear power plant project in Uzbekistan is progressing rapidly. During Putin's visit to Tashkent in May 2024, the two sides signed an agreement to build six small nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 330 megawatts by 2033.

Kazakhstan is also considering the possibility of building nuclear power plants, having selected a location near Lake Balkhash. Rosatom, the Russian state-owned nuclear energy corporation, is considered a potential partner. Kyrgyzstan also plans to build small nuclear power plants on its territory.

Central Asia possesses abundant uranium reserves, with Kazakhstan being the world's largest uranium supplier, holding a 42% market share. Combined with the existing fuel processing facilities in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and the technological capabilities of Rosatom, this lays the foundation for comprehensive cooperation in the nuclear energy sector.

The Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline project not only provides China with a stable supply of natural gas but also creates numerous jobs and tax revenues for countries along the route. The project's implementation has spurred the development of related construction, technical services, and pipeline operation industries in the affected countries, generating considerable economic benefits.

As natural gas production in Central Asian countries becomes more diversified, regional energy cooperation models are constantly being adjusted. Kazakhstan plans to put its Western Prorva and Kalamkas gas fields into production in 2027, with an expected annual natural gas output of 1.1 billion cubic meters. This new capacity will further enhance Kazakhstan's position in the regional energy landscape.

Energy infrastructure connectivity continues to deepen. Kazakhstan has officially launched construction of the new Bakt-Ayaguz railway line to China, which will increase freight volume between the two countries from 28 million tons per year to approximately 48 million tons per year. These infrastructure projects are reshaping the energy flow and economic cooperation landscape in Central Asia.