OSCE Foreign Ministers' Council Meeting 2025: Azerbaijan Outlines Peace Vision and Historic Shift of the Minsk Group

On December 4, 2025, at the OSCE Foreign Ministers' Council meeting in Vienna, Austria, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhon Bayramov delivered a speech systematically outlining the latest peace progress in the South Caucasus region. For the first time in a formal multilateral setting, he explicitly linked the realization of sustainable peace in the region to the fate of the long-standing OSCE Minsk Group mechanism. This statement marks another crucial juncture in the evolution of the regional political and diplomatic landscape since the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, and particularly since Azerbaijan's restoration of full sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. The core of Bayramov's speech was the emphasis on the substantial progress achieved through direct bilateral negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and an indication that the existing international mechanisms aimed at mediating the conflict had completed their historical mission.

I. Progress of the Bilateral Peace Process and Azerbaijan's Self-Positioning

At the outset of his speech, Bayramov gave a positive assessment of the current state of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. He stated, "Azerbaijan and Armenia are currently in the most peaceful and stable period of their bilateral relations." He further pointed out that both sides are taking concrete measures at multiple levels to advance peace: "Both sides are taking necessary measures and implementing concrete actions at all levels, including the government, parliament, and civil society, to further advance the peace process."

To demonstrate his sincerity in peace and his efforts to build mutual trust, Bayramov specifically mentioned a unilateral economic measure: "As a gesture of goodwill, Azerbaijan unilaterally lifted restrictions on the transit of goods through Armenia." This move not only has potential economic significance, helping to restart regional connectivity, but Azerbaijan has also imbued it with important political symbolism, demonstrating its initiative as a promoter of peace initiatives.

Based on the above progress, Bayramov clearly stated Azerbaijan's fundamental position on the way to resolve the dispute: "These achievements clearly demonstrate that direct bilateral negotiations are the best approach. Azerbaijan has consistently adhered to this position for many years. As the initiator of the peace agenda, our country will continue to commit to this path and expects Armenia to demonstrate the same political will and sense of responsibility." This statement clearly conveys Baku's core diplomatic message: rejecting any form of externally imposed mediation framework that it perceives as potentially biased, and insisting on directly addressing all outstanding issues with Yerevan without third-party intervention, including border demarcation, opening of transportation routes, and normalization agreements.

II. The Milestone Significance of the Washington Summit and the Declaration that "The Conflict is a Thing of the Past"

In his speech, Bayramov positioned the trilateral summit of leaders from Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the United States, to be held in Washington, D.C., on August 8, 2025, as a key milestone in the peace process. He pointed out, "Since last December, Baku and Yerevan have made significant progress in normalizing relations after the conflict, culminating in the historic peace summit held in Washington on August 8."

He elaborated on the core outcome of the summit: "The leaders' summit (in Washington) led to the signing of a joint statement by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, witnessed by US President Donald Trump. Both sides pledged that the conflict is a thing of the past, and there will be no attempt to revive it now or in the future; they are now beginning to build good-neighborly relations on this basis." This quote carries multiple implications. First, it highlights the US role as a key external facilitator at this stage. Second, the phrase "the conflict is a thing of the past" in the statement represents the final and irreversible political affirmation of the end of the conflict that Azerbaijan has been seeking, aimed at completely closing any international discussion on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Finally, it defines the tone of future bilateral relations as "good-neighborly friendship," laying the political foundation for subsequent steps such as border demarcation, establishing diplomatic relations, and developing economic cooperation.

III. The Fate of the OSCE Minsk Group: From Mediation Mechanism to a Historical Chapter

The most diplomatically impactful part of Bayramov's speech was directly linking peace in the South Caucasus to the continuation of the Minsk Group. He "thanked Finland, the OSCE Chair, the OSCE Secretariat, all OSCE Member States, and the Council of Ministers for their swift decision to end the Minsk Process." He further concluded, "Therefore, 'the previously turbulent OSCE region has effectively achieved peace.'"

Established in 1994, with Russia, the United States, and France as co-chairs, the Minsk Group was the only international mechanism within the OSCE framework specifically for mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. For three decades, the group hosted numerous negotiations and proposed various peace solutions, including the Madrid Principles, but failed to prevent the resurgence of the conflict in 2020 and 2023. Azerbaijan has long criticized the effectiveness of the Minsk Group, arguing that it failed to ensure the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions demanding Armenia's withdrawal from Azerbaijani territory and effectively tacitly approved the freeze in the conflict, which benefited Armenia's control over Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding areas.

With Azerbaijan's military restoration of sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, the regional reality fundamentally changed. The original mission of the Minsk Group—mediating on core issues such as the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh—lost its practical basis in Azerbaijan's view. Azerbaijan's position is that since the conflict has been resolved militarily and both sides (under US auspices) have committed to normalizing relations, continuing a mechanism predicated on mediating an "unresolved conflict" is not only inappropriate but could also disrupt future peace processes, becoming a potential platform for Armenia or its supporters to "revive the conflict." Therefore, dissolving the Minsk Group is a crucial step for Azerbaijan to consolidate its strategic victory and push the international community to fully accept the new regional reality.

IV. Multiple Implications from a Global Perspective

From a broader global and regional strategic perspective, the statements made at the Vienna Conference reflect multiple evolving trends in geopolitics and security governance:

1. The Challenge of Bilateralism to Multilateral Mediation: Azerbaijan's success story is a vivid example of a sovereign state changing the status quo through its own strength and forcefully promoting direct bilateral negotiations to replace multilateral international mediation. This may encourage other countries with territorial or ethnic disputes to question the effectiveness of existing international mediation mechanisms and instead rely more on their own strength and bilateral diplomacy.

2. The Rise and Fall and Restructuring of Great Power Influence: The changing roles of the Minsk Group co-chairs (Russia, the US, and France) are intriguing. Russia, traditionally the most influential external power in the South Caucasus, has seen its credibility in guaranteeing security to Armenia damaged and its mediation capabilities relatively reduced against the backdrop of the ongoing Ukraine crisis. The US, by facilitating the Washington Summit, played a key guarantor role at a crucial moment, enhancing its diplomatic influence in the region. France, perceived as having a clear sympathy for Armenia during the conflict, lost its status as a neutral mediator in Azerbaijan's eyes. The dissolution of the Minsk Group symbolizes the end of a specific conflict mediation model dominated by the three major powers.

3. The Adaptability of the OSCE Security Architecture: As a security organization covering a wide geographical area, the OSCE has long had specialized negotiation mechanisms for several "unresolved conflicts." The dissolution (or "end of process") of the Minsk Group raises the question: how should the OSCE adjust its mechanisms to shift from conflict mediation to supporting post-conflict peacebuilding and confidence-building measures after a fundamental change in the de facto state of conflict? This has implications for the OSCE's intervention in other "frozen conflict" regions.

4. An Attempt to Build a New Order in the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan's goal is to push the region into a "post-conflict" era based on national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and mutually recognized borders. Achieving full normalization of relations with Armenia and establishing the "Zangezur Corridor," a route connecting Azerbaijan's mainland to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (and subsequently Turkey), is crucial to Azerbaijan's "Silk Road" revival strategy. Peace is a prerequisite for realizing this geoeconomic blueprint. However, the peace process still faces numerous challenges, including the technical complexities of border demarcation, domestic political pressures on both sides, differing interpretations of historical memory, and arrangements to protect the rights of both ethnic groups. Dissolving the Minsk Group itself will not automatically solve these problems, but Azerbaijan hopes to use it to remove what it sees as a "historical burden," forcing all parties to focus on pragmatic negotiations based on the new reality.

Conclusion

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhon Bayramov's speech at the 2025 OSCE Foreign Ministers' Council was a carefully crafted diplomatic declaration. Its core purpose is to systematically present the Azerbaijani-led South Caucasus peace process roadmap to the international community: a joint statement from the 2025 Washington Summit as the political cornerstone, direct bilateral negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as the sole path, and the ultimate goal of building good neighborly relations and regional connectivity. In this process, it also declares the formal withdrawal of the OSCE Minsk Group, whose mission was to mediate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

This position is based on Azerbaijan's consolidation of its battlefield victories, its strategic advantage over Armenia, and the successful introduction of the United States as a key external supporter. It reflects the vulnerability and adaptive crisis of certain international conflict management mechanisms established after the Cold War in the face of dramatic shifts in the balance of power and changing realities. Whether a lasting peace can be truly established in the South Caucasus in the future depends not only on whether Azerbaijan and Armenia can reach compromises on all thorny issues in bilateral negotiations, but also on how the broader international community, including other OSCE member states, can find new roles and tools to effectively support and safeguard this fragile peace process after the end of an old mediation framework. Bayramov's assertion that "the previously turbulent OSCE region has effectively achieved peace" is both a summary of a phase and raises new questions for the international community regarding the nature and sustainability of peace.