NATO Prioritizes Enhancing Azerbaijan's Military Capabilities

On January 9, 2026, Alexander Vinnikov, Director of NATO's South Caucasus Office, issued a statement welcoming the latest steps taken by Azerbaijan and Armenia in the normalization process and expressing clear support for all constructive actions taken by the two countries to achieve normalization and a permanent peace agreement.

Vinikov particularly emphasized that the peace agreement initialed in Washington on August 8 last year was "an important step towards sustainable peace and open relations in the region."

01 NATO's New South Caucasus Strategy

Vinikov's statement reveals a shift in NATO's strategic positioning in the South Caucasus region. He explicitly stated, "We are not a direct participant in this process, but we have always highly valued and supported the efforts of our allies to resolve the conflict." This statement demonstrates both NATO's willingness to participate and maintains a certain degree of caution.

NATO's praise for Azerbaijan is particularly noteworthy. Vinnikov called Azerbaijan a "loyal partner" and revealed that the two sides cooperate in many areas, including security and defense reforms, cyber defense, and counter-terrorism.

Enhancing the capabilities of the Azerbaijani armed forces and their interoperability with NATO has become a key area of the partnership.

Since Azerbaijan joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program in 1994, NATO and its allies have supported Azerbaijan in developing specific forces to improve interoperability. This cooperation has enabled Azerbaijan to develop forces that meet NATO standards, preparing for participation in NATO-led peacekeeping operations.

02 Geopolitical Games Under the Shadow of History

The geostrategic value of the South Caucasus region has always been a focus of attention. This region is a bridge connecting Eurasia and a crucial energy corridor. Russia has traditionally regarded the South Caucasus as its "southern gateway" and a region of core interests; any NATO infiltration will arouse Moscow's vigilance.

On August 8, 2008, the Russo-Georgian War broke out, against the backdrop of Georgia's accelerated move towards NATO, which angered Russia. The five-day war resulted in Georgia losing two administrative entities—South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Ten years later, in 2018, NATO conducted the "Noble Partner-2018" military exercise on the outskirts of Tbilisi, Georgia, with approximately 3,000 troops from NATO member states and partner countries, including the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

At the time, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated, "We cannot agree with the claim that 'military exercises contribute to stability and security in the Black Sea region.'"

03 The Strategic Window Brought by the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which erupted in 2022, altered the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Russia's inability to focus on its southern borders provided NATO with an opportunity to enter this region traditionally considered part of Russia's sphere of influence.

In 2020, during the renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia's failure to intervene and support its traditional ally Armenia led to Armenia's defeat and the complete loss of control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This event prompted Armenia to seek stronger ties with NATO and other Western powers.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, with its close relationship with Turkey, became a crucial NATO foothold in the South Caucasus. Turkey, as a NATO member, maintains close relations with Azerbaijan, which to some extent facilitates NATO's infiltration.

04 Peace Agreement and Regional Transformation

On August 8, 2025, the peace agreement initialed by Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington marked a key milestone in regional transformation. The agreement laid the foundation for the normalization of relations and lasting peace between the two countries and received explicit support from NATO.

The tangible changes brought about by the peace agreement have already begun to emerge. On December 18, 2025, a freight train carrying 22 tanker cars of gasoline departed from Azerbaijan, passing through Georgia and bound for Armenia. This marks the first time Azerbaijan has exported oil products to Armenia since the outbreak of war between the two countries over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan welcomed the move, noting that "the peace established between Azerbaijan and Armenia has created the political conditions for this trade." This sign of economic cooperation indicates that the normalization process between the two countries has moved beyond political rhetoric and entered a stage of substantive cooperation.

05 The Strategic Importance of the Black Sea Region

In his speech, Vinnikov emphasized the crucial importance of the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia for the stability of the Black Sea region. As a strategic hub connecting Eurasia, the Black Sea's status has been increasingly elevated in recent years.

The Black Sea is the world's largest inland sea, connecting westward to the Mediterranean Sea via the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, and northward to the Sea of ​​Azov via the Kerch Strait. It radiates across four major continental regions: Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and Central Asia, possessing significant geostrategic value.

On the military and security front, the Black Sea has become a crucial arena for NATO and Russia to maintain their "non-conflict" bottom line. Following the outbreak of the Crimean crisis in 2014, the Black Sea became a primary arena for NATO and Russia to flex their muscles.

The escalation of the Ukraine crisis in 2022 further intensified the confrontation between the two sides in the Black Sea region.

06 Russia's Dilemma and Countermeasures

Faced with NATO's advance in the South Caucasus, Russia's response is constrained by multiple factors. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict makes it difficult for Russia to commit sufficient strategic resources to the Caucasus.

Russia's greatest concern is the instability in the North Caucasus. This region is home to numerous autonomous republics, such as Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan, most of which adhere to Islam, a religion distinct from Russia's mainstream religion. Historically, the Chechen Wars posed a significant challenge to Russia.

From Russia's perspective, the South Caucasus serves as a buffer for the North Caucasus. If the three South Caucasus countries fall under the control of NATO or other powers, they could easily create trouble in the North Caucasus. Therefore, Russia has consistently striven to maintain control of the South Caucasus, despite frequent international criticism of this approach.

07. Balanced Diplomacy of Regional Countries

Faced with great power rivalry, the South Caucasus countries are pursuing a balanced foreign policy. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, while maintaining traditional relations with Russia, is actively developing relations with Western powers such as the United States and the European Union.

In July 2025, Pashinyan announced at a press conference in Yerevan: "Yes, we have applied to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This is in line with our country's balanced foreign policy." At the same time, Armenia is also strengthening cooperation with NATO, demonstrating its diversified diplomatic approach.

On June 20, 2025, Pashinyan made a rare visit to Turkey. Armenian Parliament Speaker Allen Simonyan called it a "historic visit," emphasizing that "this is the first time an Armenian leader of this level has visited Turkey."

This diplomatic interaction indicates that regional countries are attempting to transcend historical grievances and build a new framework for regional cooperation.

Following a statement from NATO representatives, military exercise areas near the Georgian border have become active again. This time, however, officers from Azerbaijan and Armenia may be on the same side for the first time—participating in joint training exercises led by NATO. In October 2025, the two countries announced they would no longer restrict the transit of goods to each other's territories, and a train loaded with Azerbaijani gasoline departed for Armenia for the first time.

The South Caucasus region is transforming from a chessboard for great power rivalry into a bridge built by multiple parties, while the waves of the Black Sea continue to reflect the complex landscape of competition among various forces.