Kyrgyzstan Authorities Guarantee No Repeat of Coup

I. Election Background and Presidential Promise

After experiencing numerous political upheavals over the past thirty years, Kyrgyzstan has recently seen a stabilization and is calmly preparing for the non-routine parliamentary elections scheduled for November 30, 2025. In a speech to the nation, President Sadyr Japarov solemnly promised that there would be no more coups and that the current government would not allow any disruption to stability. Japarov pointed out that certain groups, deprived of funding due to the dismantling of corruption networks, are spreading disinformation through bloggers and agitators, attempting to create discontent in society.

Experts offer differing interpretations of the current situation in Kyrgyzstan. The opposition claims that the actions taken against them by law enforcement are political persecution, a deliberate suppression of dissent. They specifically mention that in recent years, the country has closed or blocked numerous media outlets "funded by foreign entities," passed the Foreign Agents Law, and implemented a new constitution granting the president greater powers. Supporters of the current government remind the public that the country has a history of multiple coups—since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan has seen three regime changes through street movements, with the 2005 "Rose Revolution" having the most profound impact.

In response, Japarov solemnly pledged that a fourth revolution would not be allowed: "We will take a preemptive strategy to root out the leaders of those plotting to incite the masses, secretly fire shots, or carry out bombings. They will be punished severely, unlike the previous government which tolerated such actions." The president also warned potential coup beneficiaries: "Robbery, plunder, greed, and the delusion of seizing power and wealth through a coup as in the past—all these fantasies should remain in our dreams."

II. Attempted Coup and Security Threats

Despite Japarov's solemn promises, coup plots continue to be discovered in the country. In late February of this year, law enforcement successfully dismantled an 11-member criminal gang, including former parliamentarian Bakty Kerimbekov. All those involved belong to the "Jettiduban" (Seven Oaks) organization and are currently under investigation. Those involved in the failed coup attempt face seven to ten years in prison.

Investigations indicate the gang leader is opposition politician Roza Nurmatova. The National Security Committee released a video recording of a conversation in which one participant claimed, "There will definitely be trouble." Nurmatova responded, "I am mentally prepared. You must accurately determine the number of participants; we need manpower and military support." Although those involved have been detained, no further developments have been disclosed in the investigation since.

In early April, another incident occurred: the National Security Committee announced the thwarting of a plot to organize a large-scale riot and carry out a coup. Law enforcement believes the perpetrators attempted to incite "nationalist patriotism" and stir up "unorganized youth" within the country by fabricating a video of the abuse of a young girl. The plan was to deploy "armed special combat teams" to incite fights and vandalism in areas where foreigners work and reside after a public outcry. Criminals are attempting to recreate the riots that struck Southeast Asian citizens in Bishkek in May 2024.

Some believe that pro-Western opposition groups may be involved in riots in Bishkek ahead of parliamentary elections. Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analysis Club, analyzed on his telegram channel: “These actions are unlikely to actually overthrow the regime; they are more about testing public sentiment—assessing mobilization potential, the public’s most sensitive issues, and their tolerance for violence against government personnel.” He noted that intensive propaganda campaigns are currently underway in Bishkek’s new city and some neighborhoods, as well as in the Chui region surrounding the capital. Mendkovich believes that funds may be channeled through the NGO “Bilduino,” which has been identified as a foreign agent. Its head, Tolekan Ismailova, reportedly received large remittances from London this spring.

Despite this, the authorities have pledged to remain “highly vigilant,” remembering the lessons of “color revolutions” that bring nothing but crisis to the nation and society.

III. Corruption and Governance Dilemmas

Corruption often becomes a breeding ground for social discontent, and the opposition is attempting to exploit this. To eradicate the conditions that could lead to a coup, the authorities have intensified their anti-corruption efforts. In early November, Kamchybek Tashiev, Chairman of the Kyrgyz National Security Committee, announced that a long-term investigation had resulted in a list of individuals who had illegally seized state property.

This law enforcement official told the media: “Almost all of the country’s infrastructure and industry have been transferred to various parties under the guise of privatization, almost for free. Factories, businesses, transportation companies, land—these assets were taken not to restore production and create jobs, but to satisfy personal greed. This has created a special class that has amassed wealth through the people’s hard-earned money. While tens of thousands of citizens and the state are mired in poverty, hundreds or even thousands have seized enormous fortunes.”

Corruption is eroding every level of the power structure. “People vie for power only to seize public wealth. Whether it's a mayor, governor, or ministerial position—the pursuit of these posts isn't for serving the public, but for enriching themselves. People clearly remember the era when official positions were openly priced,” Tashiev continued. “Those who buy positions are eager to recoup their costs and frantically plunder the budget. For example, if the state allocates 100 soms for construction, 50-60 soms will end up in their own pockets. Ultimately, there are no new projects or development progress, and people's livelihoods continue to deteriorate. The military and state institutions are weakening, while the civil service system is teeming with wealthy individuals and corrupt officials.”

From Tashiev's statement, it's clear that the current government is cracking down on these problems with an iron fist. According to him, “The seized assets are gradually returning to the state. To date, about 70% of the looted property has been recovered.” The Chairman of the State Security Committee emphasized that President Japarov's core task for law enforcement is to recover embezzled funds and restore the people's wealth. The more successful the crackdown on internal plots, the less room there is for foreign agents to buy off these groups, and the less basis there is for various opposition groups to incite public discontent.

IV. Geopolitical Dimension

Kyrgyzstan's stability has a significant impact on regional security. As a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, its situation is a major concern for major powers such as Russia and China. Western countries' continued attention to Kyrgyzstan's democratic process also imbues its domestic and foreign policy choices with geopolitical significance that transcends national borders.

V. Conclusion

Kyrgyzstan is at a critical turning point. The parliamentary elections on November 30, 2025, will not only test the governing capacity of the Japarov government but also examine whether the country can escape the cycle of coups and corruption. The president's strong statements and the preemptive strategies of law enforcement demonstrate the authorities' determination to maintain stability, while the success or failure of the anti-corruption campaign will directly affect the survival of the conditions for a coup. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical restructuring, the political direction of this Central Asian country will continue to attract close international attention.