Kazakhstan's oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Union plummeted 45% in January.

Kazakhstan's daily oil production plunged from 1.87 million barrels in December to 1.21 million barrels in early January. Only one of the three mooring units at the Caspian Pipeline Union (CPC) terminal remained operational, and this vital energy artery, carrying 80% of Kazakhstan's exports, is facing severe congestion.

On November 29, 2025, a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk not only damaged the Caspian Pipeline Union (CPC) oil terminal's No. 2 mooring unit (SPM-2), but also triggered a chain reaction, plunging Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest oil producer, into a crisis of oil exports.

From January 1 to 12 this year, Kazakhstan's oil and gas condensate production fell sharply by 35% compared to the average level in December.

Even more serious is the fact that oil exports via the CPC in January plummeted by approximately 45% year-on-year, a significant drop from the originally planned average of approximately 800,000-900,000 barrels per day. Of the 45 planned shipments, at least 21 were cancelled.

01 The Energy Crisis Due to Multiple Factors

The CPC pipeline is the main channel for Kazakhstan's oil exports, handling approximately 80% of the country's oil exports. This 1,500-kilometer-long energy artery connects giant oil fields in western Kazakhstan, such as Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak, to the port of Novorossiysk on Russia's Black Sea coast.

The attack on November 29th last year severely damaged the No. 2 mooring unit at the CPC terminal. Before the attack, SPM-3 was under maintenance; after the attack, only one mooring unit remained operational at the entire terminal.

Severe weather also presented additional challenges to pipeline operations. On December 29th last year, storm weather forced the CPC offshore terminal to suspend oil transshipment and receiving operations. Because the terminal's oil storage facilities were nearing full capacity, CPC had to temporarily restrict crude oil reception.

The Kazakh Ministry of Energy had to acknowledge a harsh reality: "Currently, there is no alternative to this pipeline."

02 Impact on the Kazakh Economy

Oil exports are the lifeblood of the Kazakh economy. Data shows that oil exports account for 15% of Kazakhstan's GDP and contribute half of the country's total merchandise exports.

The attack on the CPC pipeline directly impacted production in Kazakhstan's major oil fields. Data shows that production at the Chevron-dominated Tengiz oil field dropped by more than half, production at the offshore Kashagan oil field dropped by 60%, and production at the Karachaganak oil field dropped by 40%.

By December 2025, Kazakhstan had already lost 480,000 tons of oil production due to the CPC attack. Simulations by the International Monetary Fund show that if the CPC pipeline is disrupted for an extended period, Kazakhstan's oil exports will decrease by 75%, total exports by 45%, and GDP will decline by 11%, with these negative effects lasting for more than two years.

The Kazakh Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement, noting that this was the third deliberate attack on CPC facilities, and that the incident "seriously damaged bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Ukraine."

03 Emergency Measures and Alternative Routes

To cope with the crisis, Kazakhstan has activated temporary alternative export routes. These alternative routes include those to Asia and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

In December, Kazakhstan planned to transport approximately 188,000 tons of crude oil via the BTC pipeline, an increase of about 30% compared to November. In addition, Kazakhstan also planned to supply 50,000 tons of crude oil directly to China from the Kashagan oil field for the first time in December, transported via the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline.

These alternative solutions face limitations. The BTC pipeline's capacity is limited by the throughput capacity of Aktau port and the quality requirements of the crude oil. The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline's average monthly transport capacity is only 85,000 to 86,000 tons.

The Kazakh Ministry of Energy stated, "The attack on the CPC shipping terminal did not lead to a complete disruption of exports… The Ministry of Energy is working with crude oil producers to advance capacity allocation and increase the use of alternative routes."

04 Impact on the Global Energy Market

The CPC pipeline accounts for approximately 1% of the total global crude oil supply daily. This supply disruption has already had a substantial impact on the international crude oil market.

For the first time in a year, Kazakhstani crude oil is trading at a premium of approximately $1.20 per barrel. As a major non-OPEC oil producer, Kazakhstan's short-term supply disruption, coupled with geopolitical risks, has provided an additional supply shortage premium to the international crude oil market.

The EU imports 1.05 million barrels of crude oil daily from Kazakhstan, making Kazakhstan the EU's third-largest oil supplier. The CPC pipeline disruption directly affects refineries in countries such as Italy and France, which have long relied on crude oil transported through the CPC pipeline.

The CPC pipeline was originally planned to transport a record 72 million tons of oil by 2025, but this target has since been lowered to 68 million tons. The strained pipeline operation continues to impact global oil supply.

05 Geopolitical Game

This event occurred against a complex geopolitical backdrop. The shareholders of the CPC pipeline include energy giants from Russia, Kazakhstan, and the United States.

American companies Chevron and ExxonMobil together hold a 22.5% stake in the CPC pipeline. The attacks in Ukraine have damaged the interests of American companies, impacting domestic discussions in the US regarding aid to Ukraine.

Turkish President Erdogan has issued a statement condemning the attacks, emphasizing that such threats to navigational safety are unacceptable, and has warned relevant parties while increasing naval patrols in the area.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova characterized the attacks as acts of terrorism, stating that the Ukrainian government's actions threaten global security and noting that some European countries may have assisted Ukraine through intelligence agencies.

With the port of Novorossiysk awaiting the arrival of new single-point mooring equipment in January, global markets are closely watching the progress of CPC pipeline repairs. The recovery of Kazakhstan's oil production depends on the smooth flow of this energy artery.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is accelerating its export diversification strategy, including increasing supplies to Asian markets. The future development of this eastern energy corridor will reshape the energy trade landscape of Central Asia.

For Kazakhstan, this crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity, prompting the landlocked country to seek a new balance in energy exports that is no longer dependent on a single route.