Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan Sign Water and Energy Swap Agreement

The water and electricity swap agreement signed by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan marks a shift in Central Asia's approach to addressing common challenges, moving from a zero-sum game to win-win cooperation.

On September 7, 2025, at a trilateral meeting held in the Kyrgyz resort city of Cholpon-Ata, the heads of energy and water resource management departments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan signed a series of agreements regulating regional hydropower and electricity balance up to 2026.

The core of these agreements is the establishment of a complementary mechanism for "electricity in exchange for water resources," aiming to balance regional energy demand and water resource allocation through hydropower coordination.

01 Resource Inequality and Climate Challenges

Central Asia has long faced the dual challenges of uneven water resource distribution and seasonal power shortages. Differences in geographical conditions determine the different resource endowments of the three countries.

Kyrgyzstan, located on the upper reaches of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, possesses abundant water resources and hydropower potential, but lacks fossil fuels.

Downstream, southern Kazakhstan's agricultural regions and Uzbekistan are heavily reliant on transboundary river irrigation, yet frequently face summer water shortages.

Climate change has exacerbated this contradiction. In 2025, southern Kazakhstan experienced extreme drought, with scarce rainfall and persistent high temperatures, significantly increasing pressure on agricultural production. According to a GEOGLAM report, Uzbekistan's wheat production is projected to decline by approximately 10% compared to the same period in 2024.

Against this backdrop, the low water level of the Toktogul Reservoir is particularly prominent. This reservoir is Kyrgyzstan's largest and a key facility for regulating downstream water flow.

02 Core Contents of the Hydropower Swap Agreement

According to the agreement, Kyrgyzstan will receive electricity from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the autumn and winter seasons. In exchange, Kyrgyzstan will release additional water resources from the Toktogul Reservoir to supply Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, ensuring stable irrigation for farmland in its southern regions.

Specific arrangements include: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will directly supply electricity to Kyrgyzstan, while Kazakhstan will also transfer Russian electricity through its domestic power grid to fill Kyrgyzstan's power shortage.

Data shows that Turkmenistan has supplied Kyrgyzstan with 170 million kilowatt-hours of electricity this year, Kazakhstan and Russia have jointly supplied an equivalent amount, and Uzbekistan plans to deliver 50 million kilowatt-hours.

Uzbekistan has also committed to supplying up to 900 million kilowatt-hours of electricity to southern Kazakhstan in 2026 to address anticipated shortages caused by planned power system upgrades.

This agreement clarifies the responsibilities and obligations of all parties, setting "specific figures, deadlines, and prices," providing a clear regulatory framework for regional hydropower cooperation.

03 The Key Role of the Toktogur Reservoir

As the core of regional hydropower regulation, the Toktogur Reservoir's water level changes directly impact the implementation of the trilateral agreement. Located on the Naryn River, the reservoir has a total installed capacity of 1200 MW, an area of ​​284 square kilometers, and a total storage capacity of 19.5 billion cubic meters.

The vast majority of the water flowing from the Toktogur Reservoir into Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is used for irrigation, accounting for approximately 85% to 90% of their water demand.

Kyrgyzstan's Energy Minister, Taraibek Ibrahev, stated that the Toktogur Reservoir's water level is extremely low—nearly 2 billion cubic meters less than the same period last year. Low water levels not only affect power generation but also directly threaten irrigation water supply in downstream agricultural areas.

The implementation of the agreement will help maintain the necessary water level balance in the Toktogur Reservoir, ensuring water supply for southern Kazakhstan in the next irrigation season.

04 Kyrgyzstan's Energy Dilemma

Kyrgyzstan currently faces a severe energy supply-demand imbalance. Electricity demand is currently growing at a rate of 2 to 2.5 million kilowatt-hours per day, and the existing hydroelectric power plants, operating at full capacity, are still unable to meet this demand.

The hydroelectric power plants, including the Toktogur, Shamardisai, and Tashkumir power stations, have a full-capacity generating capacity of only 3,460 megawatts per hour, insufficient to meet the 3,600 megawatts per hour demand.

The energy shortage has forced the power sector to cut off power to all government agencies from 6 PM to 6 AM and temporarily ban cryptocurrency mining operations. Bishkek officials have appealed to residents to conserve electricity.

To address this predicament, Kyrgyzstan is not only relying on hydroelectric swap agreements but has also requested increased natural gas supply quotas from Russia. Natural gas imported from Russia is planned to be converted into electricity at a thermal power plant in Uzbekistan for use in Kyrgyzstan.

05. Multiple Values of Regional Cooperation

This hydropower swap agreement has both short-term emergency value and long-term strategic significance. In the short term, the agreement can directly reduce the risk of drought and power shortages, ensuring stable electricity supply for agricultural production and residential use in the three countries.

In the long term, the agreement promotes regional energy infrastructure synergy, laying the foundation for the integration of cross-border energy networks. Uzbekistan's proposal to connect the Central Asian power grid with the Chinese power grid is expected to create a larger-scale cross-border energy corridor and improve the efficiency of regional energy allocation.

Kazakhstan's Energy Minister, Akhenjenov Yerlan, emphasized: "Work in the hydropower sector requires the utmost precision and strict adherence to timelines." This indicates that regional cooperation is shifting from political declarations to pragmatic and feasible commercial arrangements.

This cooperation model provides a valuable solution for Central Asia to address the challenges of climate change. With the implementation of the agreement and the advancement of infrastructure construction, the energy supply chain and agricultural production system of the entire Central Asian region will become more robust.

06 A Broader Vision for Central Asian Cooperation

Cooperation among Central Asian countries in water resources and energy is not new, but previous coordination mechanisms have often been ineffective. While mechanisms such as the Inter-Central Asian Water Resources Coordination Committee (ICWC) exist, their lack of legal binding force, limited enforcement, and insufficient representation have hindered the effective coordination of differing interests between upstream and downstream countries in hydropower and agricultural irrigation.

The 2025 border agreement between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan provides an opportunity to reshape regional coordination mechanisms.

Meanwhile, the China-Central Asia cooperation mechanism is also deepening. At the Second China-Central Asia Summit, the heads of state of the six countries jointly established the "China-Central Asia Spirit," propelling China-Central Asia cooperation into a new stage of high-quality development.

Cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in the field of green energy is becoming increasingly close. For example, in the hills of Zeravshan, Navoi Region, central Uzbekistan, the Zeravshan Wind Power Project, constructed by China Power Construction Corporation, is Uzbekistan's first large-scale wind power project, with a total installed capacity of 521.7 MW. Such projects not only help Central Asian countries diversify their energy sources but also demonstrate the potential for countries outside the region to participate in Central Asia's sustainable development.

With the implementation of hydropower swap agreements, Central Asia is taking substantial steps towards building a more integrated regional energy market. Uzbekistan's proposal to connect Central Asian countries' energy systems with the Chinese power grid foreshadows a broader prospect for interconnectivity.

For landlocked Central Asian countries, cross-border resource cooperation is not only crucial for economic development but also for regional security and stability. The hydropower swap model provides valuable experience for collaborative governance of cross-border resources in arid regions worldwide.