Kazakhstan and the US Sign Memorandum of Understanding on Critical Minerals: A Subtle Evolution of the Geoeconomic Landscape in Central Asia

November 6, 2025, Washington, D.C. Witnessed by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the Minister of Industry and Construction of Kazakhstan and the Secretary of Commerce of the United States jointly signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the field of critical minerals. This diplomatic move, embedded in President Tokayev's packed schedule of visits to Washington, not only signifies the deepening of bilateral relations but also represents a landmark geoeconomic event against the backdrop of global energy transition, great power competition, and regional strategic adjustments. This cooperation transcends the scope of simple bilateral trade and economics, and its impact will radiate to the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia.

I. Background of Cooperation: The Global Strategic Value of Critical Minerals Becomes Prominent

Critical minerals, such as rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and copper, are the cornerstone of modern high-tech industries, defense industries, and clean energy technologies. From smartphones and electric vehicle batteries to wind turbines and advanced weapon systems, these minerals are indispensable. As countries around the world accelerate their green and low-carbon transformation, the demand for critical minerals is growing exponentially. The International Energy Agency and other organizations have repeatedly warned that in the coming decades, the security of critical mineral supply chains will directly determine a nation's competitive position in the new energy economy era.

Against this backdrop, major global economies have elevated the security of critical mineral supply chains to a national strategic level. The United States, as a technological and military superpower, has enormous domestic demand, but its supply chain is highly dependent on foreign sources, particularly China in processing and refining. Therefore, seeking supply chain diversification and enhancing self-sufficiency has become a consensus strategic goal for both parties in the US. Policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act passed during the Biden administration reflected this direction, and the current Trump administration has clearly continued and strengthened this strategy.

Kazakhstan, on the other hand, possesses globally recognized abundant mineral resources. It has the world's largest tungsten reserves, the second largest chromite reserves, and has long been among the world's leading uranium producers. It also possesses significant potential for rare earth, copper, and lithium reserves. However, Kazakhstan's mining development faces challenges, including insufficient exploration technology, mining efficiency, downstream processing capacity, and infrastructure bottlenecks. Attracting foreign investment and introducing advanced technologies to transform resource potential into economic benefits is one of the key paths for Kazakhstan to achieve economic diversification and reduce its dependence on traditional energy sources (oil and natural gas).

Therefore, cooperation between Kazakhstan and the United States in the field of key minerals is essentially a highly complementary relationship in terms of supply and demand and strategic objectives. For the United States, Kazakhstan represents a potential partner that can replace its existing main source of supply, helping to reduce supply chain risks. For Kazakhstan, cooperation with the United States means access to capital, technology, and markets, driving the upgrading of its domestic industries.

II. Multiple Interpretations of the Timing and Diplomatic Context of the Signing

The timing and diplomatic arrangements of this memorandum of understanding convey a wealth of information.

First, its timing—before the formal talks between President Tokayev and US President Trump, and its signing by ministerial-level officials of both countries in the presence of their heads of state—highlights the high importance both sides attach to this issue, aiming to create a positive atmosphere for the summit and potentially serving as a cornerstone for broader dialogue to follow.

Secondly, President Tokayev's visit, which began with meetings with senior US officials including the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Commerce, culminated in a summit of heads of state and participation in the "C5+1" mechanism, showcased a carefully crafted diplomatic trajectory. This trajectory gradually rose from a pragmatic technocratic level (discussing specific cooperation details) to a strategic political level (heads of state setting the tone, regional architecture dialogue), indicating that the cooperation intentions underwent a certain degree of pragmatic assessment.

Of particular note is the fact that this visit and signing ceremony followed closely on the heels of recent speculation that Kazakhstan might consider joining the Abraham Accords. While the latter involves more diplomatic and security matters, and key mineral cooperation falls under the economic and technological spheres, the timing of the two inevitably sparked speculation among observers about a comprehensive deepening of Kazakhstan-US relations. This seems to outline Kazakhstan's "multi-pronged and balanced diplomacy" policy in the new era: while maintaining relations with its traditional ally Russia and its largest trading partner China, it cautiously and actively expands relations with the West, particularly the United States, seeking a new balance among major powers to maximize its national interests.

III. Potential Impacts on Regional and Global Landscape

The advancement of Kazakhstan-US cooperation on critical minerals will have ripple effects on the regional and global balance of power.

1. Impact on Russia: Russia has traditionally viewed Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), as its "zone of special interest." The substantial increase in US economic influence, especially its entry into the strategically important critical mineral sector, will inevitably raise Moscow's concerns. Russia may counter this by strengthening its own trade and economic ties with Kazakhstan and proposing similar cooperation initiatives within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. This could intensify the implicit economic competition between the US and Russia in Central Asia.

2. Impact on China: China is currently the world's largest processor and consumer of critical minerals and one of Kazakhstan's most important trading partners and sources of investment. China and Kazakhstan already have deep cooperation in oil and gas, minerals, and infrastructure. One of the explicit goals of the US intervention in Kazakhstan's critical mineral sector is to build a supply chain that excludes China. This could lead to a divergence in the future flow of Kazakhstan's mineral resources: some will continue to supply the Chinese market, while others may be directed towards the US and its allies. Kazakhstan will need to navigate the competition between the two major economies cautiously, balancing its relations with both sides and avoiding the pressure of taking sides.

3. Impact on the "C5+1" Mechanism: The highlight of President Tokayev's visit was attending the "C5+1" (Central Asian Five + United States) summit. This mechanism serves as a platform for dialogue between the United States and the entire Central Asian region. Breakthroughs in Kazakhstan-US bilateral cooperation could provide a model for cooperation between the United States and other Central Asian countries (such as Uzbekistan, which possesses abundant lithium resources), thereby increasing US economic participation in the region and injecting more substantive economic cooperation into the "C5+1" mechanism.

4. Impact on the Global Supply Chain: In the long run, if Kazakhstan-US cooperation successfully attracts Western investment and increases Kazakhstan's key mineral production and processing capacity, it will, to some extent, increase the diversity of global supply and alleviate demand pressure. However, this could also accelerate the evolution of the global key mineral supply chain towards "politicization" and "grouping," forming a supply chain centered on the United States and another centered on China, risking the fragmentation of the global market.

Conclusion

The Memorandum of Understanding on Key Mineral Cooperation between Kazakhstan and the United States, signed in Washington on November 6, 2025, is a diplomatic move that is both symbolic and substantive. It reflects the rising strategic importance of resource-rich countries in an era intertwined with global energy transition and strategic competition among major powers, as well as the global strategic positioning of major consuming countries to ensure economic security.

For Kazakhstan, this is a crucial step in its diversified and balanced diplomacy and its search for new drivers of economic development. For the United States, this is a significant step in its "de-risking" strategy in key supply chains within Central Asia. The specific effectiveness of this cooperation in the future depends on subsequent investment implementation, technology transfer, and market integration, but its subtle impact on the geoeconomic landscape of Eurasia has already begun. Central Asia, as a crossroads connecting East and West, has once again become an arena for major powers to compete for, and the policymakers in Astana (Note: the capital of Kazakhstan, renamed Nur-Sultan, later reverted to Astana, but the common name used here in this report) are attempting to find the most advantageous position for their country in this complex game. This process will undoubtedly be closely watched globally.