Georgia, October 4: Political Gambling and Street Mobilization Ahead of Local Elections

The streets of Tbilisi are about to become a political theater once again. October 4th is not only Georgia's local election day, but has also been given symbolic significance by some opposition groups as a "peaceful revolution," hoping it will be a turning point in overthrowing the current government.

Georgia's pro-Western opposition coalition is calling on the public to participate in large-scale demonstrations on October 4th, local election day, aimed at overthrowing the current Georgian Dream government. The planned rallies are being called "peaceful revolution," and organizers claim to aim for a "peaceful transition of power."

There are divisions within the opposition camp. Critics question the wisdom of pinning high hopes on a single protest, while groups like the "Lelo/Strong Georgia-For Georgia" coalition have decided to run in the elections, hoping to seize power in the capital, Tbilisi.

01 Election Controversy and the Opposition's Divisive Strategy

Georgia is scheduled to hold local elections on October 4th, but the elections themselves have become a focal point of political struggle. The main opposition coalition is boycotting the local elections and urging people to stay away from polling stations on election day.

They insist that running would give the Georgian Dream party undue legitimacy and accuse it of fraud in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

There are clear divisions within the opposition over electoral strategy. Several opposition groups, including the "Lelo/Strong Georgia-For Georgia" coalition, have decided to run.

Salome Samadashvili, one of the leaders of "Lelo/Strong Georgia," stated: "When you are in opposition and don't challenge the regime in elections, you are helping the regime consolidate its position."

02 Planning and Vision of a "Peaceful Revolution"

The plan for a mass rally on October 4th was initially announced in late July by Pata Burchuradze, a renowned Georgian opera singer and leader of the anti-government activist group "Rustaveli Street."

Bulcuradze positioned October 4th as a "day of historic victory." He expected 200,000 to 300,000 people to attend the various undisclosed locations, comparable to the height of anti-government protests last November after the Georgian Dream party suspended EU accession negotiations.

He predicted the transfer of power would be completed at 8:00 PM on October 4th, four hours after the rally began, and that a proposed cabinet list would be presented to the public, with a technocratic government to be formed immediately.

03 Historical Echoes and External Attention

Georgia is no stranger to political revolution. Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia and honorary chairman of the United National Movement, who is currently serving a prison sentence, led the bloodless "Rose Revolution" in 2003 to seize power from Soviet-era leader Eduard Shevardnadze.

In a letter posted on social media on September 19th, Saakashvili stated that "there will be no post-revolutionary unrest" following the October 4th action.

He claimed, "We know how to act quickly to restore democracy after removing 'Kotz' and rule out any provocations." "Kotz" is a nickname for Georgian Dream members and supporters.

The Unity-UNM bloc, comprised of the United National Movement and the Builders' Strategy parties, has supported Burchuradze's call for action.

04 Ruling Party Response and Warning

Members of the Georgian Dream downplayed opposition warnings of overthrow. Irakli Kobakhidze called Burchuradze's remarks about a "peaceful overthrow" of the current government "an unserious statement from an unserious person."

Levan Machavariani, first deputy chairman of the party's parliamentary delegation, declared that "nothing will happen" on October 4th except "some kind of chaos," but warned that Georgian authorities "will not allow anyone to undermine the country."

Former UNM President Levan Habeishvili, who actively promoted the October 4th rally, was recently detained. This is because he had previously publicly promised a substantial financial reward to police if they refused to disperse protesters on election day and instead joined them.

05 Social Mobilization and Hybrid Strategies

Some within the opposition have proposed a more flexible strategy. The "Lelo/Strong Georgia-For Georgia" coalition urged people to go to the polls in the morning and then join anti-government rallies in the evening.

Irakli Kupradze, the coalition's candidate for Tbilisi mayor, said: "These two paths—voting for the pro-Western opposition and then rallying on Rustaveli Street—are not contradictory. On the contrary, they will strengthen the fight against Ivanishvili and weaken him and the Russian regime behind him."

However, others within the opposition believe that there is no such thing as a "pre-announced revolution" and call it irresponsible to call on the public to participate in such a high-risk rally.

06 Potential Impact and Risk Warning

David Chikhize, a former civil servant and active protester who was fired for participating in the protests, pointed out that announcing the overthrow of the regime in advance gave the authorities "time to prepare."

He warned that a failure of the rally would plunge Georgian Dream opponents—both politicians and protesters—into "despair and nihilism," a state that would take a long time to reverse.

Tamar Chergoleshvili, one of the leaders of the opposition Federalist Party, said: "The October 4th rally is a good thing. But instilling such expectations in the public is misguided. It does nothing to rebuild trust between voters and politicians. We must fight until victory, not just until some arbitrary October date."

Tbilisi's street politics have become a barometer of the country's direction. The October 4th local elections are not only about the distribution of local governance power, but also another referendum on the Georgian Dream's legitimacy.

The opposition is trying to portray the voting day as a "historic victory," while the government is warning that it will not allow anyone to destabilize the country.

Regardless of the outcome, Georgia's pattern of political polarization and social mobilization will continue to shape the future of this country at a geopolitical crossroads.