Energy Revolution Amid Water Crisis: Uzbekistan Accelerates Green Transition

On the shores of the Aral Sea, Uzbekistan, with an average of 320 days of sunshine per year, is transforming its water scarcity crisis into an opportunity for green development.

In early 2026, Uzbekistan's Energy Minister, Zhulabek Mirzhamakhmudov, announced that in 2025, inflows from transboundary rivers combined with reservoir storage would be approximately 35% lower than the long-term average, with low river levels limiting the power generation capacity of large hydroelectric power plants.

Faced with this severe water shortage, the country's hydroelectric power generation is projected to decline by 20% in 2025, from 8.1 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024 to 6.5 billion kilowatt-hours.

This crisis is forcing Uzbek officials to rapidly adopt solar and wind power and rethink their hydroelectric power strategy. According to a report by Uzbekistan Hydropower Company, efficiency has temporarily improved despite an overall 33% reduction in resources, thanks to the introduction of new management methods and modernization efforts.

01 Water Scarcity Forces Energy Strategy Adjustment

Uzbekistan's water crisis has become a catalyst for energy system transformation. Hydropower's share of Uzbekistan's total electricity generation has fallen from 19% at the beginning of the 21st century to 7.3% in 2025.

Water scarcity caused by drought not only affects electricity production but also poses a serious threat to agricultural irrigation. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, on which Uzbekistan relies heavily, are transboundary rivers, and water allocation issues have long plagued Central Asia.

Mirzamakhmudov stated that the government is exploring a strategic transformation to reduce reliance on large hydropower stations. Officials are considering deploying micro-hydropower generators throughout the country's more than 93,000 miles of canals and irrigation systems.

This distributed generation strategy can expand electricity supply in rural areas without reducing agricultural water use. The cost of micro-generators could be as low as a few hundred dollars.

Faced with water constraints, energy transformation has become an inevitable choice for Uzbekistan. The decline in hydropower generation at the Hoover Dam in the United States and in European countries demonstrates that the threat of climate change to hydropower is global.

02 Solar and Wind Power: Pioneers of the Green Transition

Despite the decline in hydropower generation, Uzbekistan's total electricity generation from all sources is projected to increase by 6% in 2025 compared to the previous year. This growth is primarily driven by the rapid development of renewable energy, with total renewable energy generation increasing by 29% in 2025 compared to the previous year.

Solar and wind power generation is estimated at approximately 1.05 billion kilowatt-hours, more than double that of the previous year. Uzbekistan experiences 320 sunny days annually, and its solar energy potential is equivalent to four times the country's current energy consumption.

In the southern desert regions, direct solar irradiance is comparable to that of solar power powerhouses like Spain and the United States.

Uzbekistan has significantly raised its 2030 target for renewable energy to account for 54% of total electricity generation from 30%. This goal is supported by specific projects. For example, a 1-gigawatt photovoltaic project invested in by Chinese companies in Uzbekistan was fully connected to the grid in June 2024, with an annual power generation capacity of 2.4 billion kilowatt-hours.

In the wind energy sector, the Zelavshan wind power project is Uzbekistan's first large-scale wind power project, with a total installed capacity of 500 megawatts. The Uzbek government plans to achieve 5 gigawatts of wind power installed capacity by 2030. The areas where wind farms are planned to be built in the country have wind energy resource potential parameters exceeding the global average level of existing wind farms.

03 The Electric Vehicle Revolution: Changing the Energy Consumption Pattern

Uzbekistan's green transformation is not only reflected in the power generation sector but also extends to the energy consumption sector. According to data from the State Customs Committee of Uzbekistan, in 2024, Uzbekistan's imports of gasoline-powered vehicles decreased by 36.3% year-on-year, and their share of total imports fell to 44.2%.

Pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles accounted for approximately 55.7% of total imports, with electric vehicles now accounting for a larger share than gasoline-powered vehicles in the overall import volume.

Uzbekistan has issued several presidential decrees aimed at accelerating the localization of electric vehicle production and promoting the construction of electric vehicle operating infrastructure. These include plans to gradually eliminate import tariffs on electric vehicles by 2030 and to promote local production and consumption through increased subsidies and loan incentives.

Chinese brand electric vehicles are widely welcomed in the Uzbek market. BYD's Uzbekistan factory, located in Jizzakh Region in eastern Uzbekistan, has an initial annual production capacity of 50,000 vehicles, designed to meet the needs of the Central Asian market.

Great Wall Motors, Geely, and other Chinese brands have also entered the Uzbek market.

The construction of charging networks is accelerating. As of 2022, Uzbekistan had approximately 100 electric vehicle charging stations in operation, and the number is planned to increase to 2,500 by 2025.

The popularization of electric vehicles and the development of renewable energy are creating a positive interaction, reshaping Uzbekistan's energy consumption structure.

04 Policy Support System, Building a Favorable Investment Environment

Uzbekistan's green energy transition is driven by strong policies. In May 2019, Uzbekistan promulgated its first Law on the Use of Renewable Energy, a seven-chapter law that comprehensively and meticulously regulates the use of renewable energy within its borders.

To promote renewable energy development, Uzbekistan has implemented several incentive policies. Tax breaks are offered to renewable energy producers and equipment manufacturers to support technological research and development; import tariff preferences are also guaranteed to encourage the introduction of renewable energy installations.

For foreign investment of a certain scale, Uzbekistan has specified that foreign investment of US$300,000 to US$3 million will enjoy tax breaks for three years, while foreign investment exceeding US$10 million will enjoy tax breaks for five to seven years.

In the residential sector, Uzbekistan launched the "Citizen-Produced Renewable Energy" program, encouraging residents with solar roofs to sell excess electricity back to the grid, and providing subsidies to households that have installed solar roofs.

Starting in October 2025, a pilot program for subsidies for residential photovoltaic power generation will be implemented in the suburbs of Tashkent, with residents receiving a fixed subsidy of approximately US$0.08 per kilowatt-hour of solar power fed into the grid.

To reduce reliance on natural gas and promote energy transition, the Uzbek government has suspended natural gas connections for newly built residential buildings, planning to replace gas stoves and heating systems with electricity.

This policy may stimulate grid upgrades and demand for new energy sources, further promoting the green transition process.

05 International Cooperation to Accelerate Energy Transition

Uzbekistan's energy transition has received broad international support and cooperation. China has invested significantly in Uzbekistan's energy sector, such as the Syr Darya Phase II 1600 MW combined cycle power plant and the Nisson 500 MW photovoltaic project undertaken by China Energy Engineering Corporation Tianjin Electric Power Construction Co., Ltd., injecting strong momentum into Uzbekistan's energy development.

The Syr Darya Phase II project is the largest combined cycle power plant in Central Asia, employing world-leading J-class gas turbine technology, easily exceeding 60% efficiency. The power plant generates up to 12 billion kilowatt-hours annually, saving 1.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 2.2 million tons annually.

In terms of regional cooperation, the energy and water sectors of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan signed a water and electricity swap agreement.

According to the agreement, Kyrgyzstan will receive electricity from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and in exchange, Kyrgyzstan will release additional water resources from the Toktogur Reservoir to supply these two countries.

Uzbekistan has also proposed connecting the energy systems of Central Asian countries with the Chinese power grid, aiming to create a cross-border energy corridor through high-voltage transmission lines.

This regional cooperation model improves regional energy efficiency and reduces the risks associated with drought or power shortages.

International financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have also provided financing support for Uzbekistan's energy transition. This international cooperation has not only brought funds but also introduced advanced technologies and management experience, accelerating Uzbekistan's green transition process.

06 Challenges and Risks: Obstacles on the Road to Transition

Despite significant progress, Uzbekistan's energy transition still faces multiple challenges. Dust storms pose a significant threat to solar power generation; saline dust storms caused by the shrinking Aral Sea can reduce photovoltaic power generation efficiency by up to 40%.

A weak power grid system is another bottleneck. The aging grid struggles to support large-scale integration of new energy sources. Although the government plans to build 944 kilometers of new high-voltage power grid, a huge funding gap exists.

Furthermore, a talent shortage hinders development. Uzbekistan's R&D investment accounts for only 0.13% of its GDP, less than one-tenth of that of developed countries.

Social awareness also needs improvement. In the Fergana Valley, the government's mandatory switch to renewable energy for 1,408 enterprises has met with resistance from some business owners. Traditional energy price subsidies make clean electricity lack a price advantage.

Looking ahead, Uzbekistan plans to attract $30 billion in green investment by 2030. With the deep integration of China's "Green Silk Road" initiative and Uzbekistan's development strategy, Uzbekistan's energy transition will accelerate further.

The combination of micro-hydropower, distributed solar, and wind power is helping this Central Asian country build a more diversified and sustainable energy system under water resource constraints.

The transformation of Uzbekistan's energy system has yielded results. In 2025, total electricity generation from all sources increased by 6% compared to the previous year, demonstrating the initial success of its diversified energy strategy.

Uzbekistan's case demonstrates how a resource-constrained country can turn crisis into opportunity through policy guidance, technological innovation, and international cooperation. With the advancement of hydropower projects in the three countries and regional grid interconnection plans, Uzbekistan's energy transition may become a blueprint for sustainable development in Central Asia.