Central Asia's Silence and the Energy Geopolitics Behind the US Actions in Venezuela

In the midst of great power rivalry, the complex intertwining of oil interests and international relations has led Central Asian countries to adopt a cautious silence regarding the Venezuelan crisis.

On January 3rd, the United States launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela, taking President Maduro and his wife into custody. This event triggered a strong international reaction, with Russia and China strongly condemning the US's "hegemonic actions," and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) holding a special summit to explicitly oppose external military intervention.

However, in stark contrast, the governments of Central Asian countries have shown considerable restraint in response to this US "gunboat diplomacy."

As of January 5th, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—the five Central Asian countries—had not issued official statements regarding Maduro's arrest or the US's intention to control Venezuela's oil industry. This silence reflects the changing landscape of great power rivalry and complex considerations in energy geopolitics.

01 The US-Venezuela Conflict and Central Asia's Silence

In the early morning of January 3, 2026, the US launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela, taking President Maduro and his wife hostage and bringing them to the United States. US President Trump subsequently publicly declared that the US would "manage" Venezuela and announced that major US oil companies would invest in Venezuela to repair its oil infrastructure.

The international community reacted strongly. UN Secretary-General Guterres stated that this move "constitutes a dangerous precedent." Russia and China strongly condemned the US for "a serious violation of international law."

However, the Central Asian countries remained unusually silent. This silence contrasts sharply with the enthusiastic atmosphere at the US-Central Asia "C5+1" summit in November 2025. At that time, the Trump administration signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Kazakhstan on cooperation in key mineral sectors, reaching contracts worth $17 billion.

The Central Asian countries' choice to remain silent on such a significant international event reflects their pragmatic foreign policy. These countries are unwilling to offend their two important neighbors and partners, Russia and China, nor do they want to jeopardize the positive momentum in their developing relations with the United States.

02 Strategic Closer Ties Between Central Asia and the United States

The Trump administration has significantly intensified its diplomatic offensive towards Central Asia in recent years. In November 2025, the United States hosted the "C5+1" summit, a significant event marking the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the US-Central Asian exchange mechanism.

During the summit, the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on key mineral cooperation with Kazakhstan and a series of agreements with Uzbekistan on rare earth metal mining and pump station modernization. The Trump administration even invited Kazakh President Tokayev and Uzbek President Mirziyoyev to the 2026 G20 summit.

The US strategy towards Central Asia became more pragmatic during Trump's second term, shifting from values-based diplomacy to interest-based diplomacy, with the aim of "transactions, not declarations." This transactional diplomacy has injected new momentum into US-Central Asian relations.

Simultaneously, the United States has also supported the "Middle Corridor" through the "Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership," positioning it as a strategic alternative to the "Belt and Road Initiative." These initiatives have shown Central Asian countries the opportunity to gain more benefits in the great power game.

03 Divergent Energy Interests and International Reactions

Energy interests are a significant factor contributing to the differing international reactions to the US actions in Venezuela. Venezuela possesses 20% of the world's proven oil reserves, but its current daily production is less than 1 million barrels, far below the 3.5 million barrels produced in the late 1990s.

Trump promised that US energy companies would help Venezuela restore its infrastructure and production capacity, but offered no concrete plans.

US control over Venezuela's oil industry could directly impact Cuba and China, currently Venezuela's main oil exporters. Over the past decade, China has invested billions of dollars in Venezuela's oil sector, and the future of these investments is now uncertain.

According to Reuters, Beijing expects to import approximately 470,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil by 2025.

For Central Asian countries, particularly energy exporters like Kazakhstan, potential changes in Venezuelan oil production could affect global oil prices. Kazakh economist Borzhan Shulmanov believes that if Venezuela were to restore its daily production to 3 million to 3.5 million barrels, it could "alter" the "balance of power" in the energy market.

However, Askar Ismailov, an analyst at the Geneva-based Global Gas Centre, holds a different view. He believes that "the key problem with Venezuelan oil lies in its quality: it has a high viscosity, making extraction more difficult and costly. Therefore, rapid growth in oil production there is almost impossible."

04. Central Asia's Balanced Diplomatic Strategy

The silence of Central Asian countries regarding the US actions in Venezuela reflects their diversified and balanced foreign policy strategy. Since independence, these countries have consistently adhered to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, developing relations with all parties based on national interests.

Faced with US military action in Venezuela, Central Asian countries face a dilemma: on the one hand, they traditionally adhere to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and are suspicious of unilateral US military action; on the other hand, they are unwilling to damage their developing pragmatic cooperative relationship with the US.

The silence of Central Asian countries also reflects their flexible interpretation of the principle of sovereignty. These countries have historically experienced external interference multiple times and are particularly sensitive to issues of sovereignty. However, faced with the reality of great power competition, they tend to adopt a pragmatic attitude, handling international affairs while maximizing their national interests.

Lu Gang, director of the Center for Central Asian Studies at East China Normal University, believes that Central Asian countries are no longer passive "pawns" in the great power game between China, the US, and Russia, but have begun to actively participate as "players." This initiative is reflected in their reactions to the US actions in Venezuela.

05 Global Energy Market and Power Restructuring

The US military action against Venezuela could trigger a major restructuring of the global energy market. It is estimated that if Venezuelan oil production increases by 1.5 million barrels per day from current levels, it could "strongly restrain oil price increases," potentially causing prices to fall to $50-55 per barrel.

This would be very bad news for Russia, as the Russian government heavily relies on oil and gas revenues to maintain its finances. Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska warned that a US takeover of Venezuelan oil could be a catastrophic event for Russia.

For Central Asian energy exporters such as Kazakhstan, the impact may be relatively smaller, but it should not be ignored. Shulmanov stated that the significant increase in Venezuelan supply and the stable price of around $50 could reduce "some of Kazakhstan's importance as a supplier" while also impacting national income.

US control over Venezuelan oil resources will also influence the global energy geopolitical landscape. The US will not only consolidate its position as an energy superpower but may also enhance its influence in the global energy market by controlling Venezuelan oil resources. This could further intensify competition among major powers in the energy sector.

The varying international reactions to the US military action in Venezuela highlight the complex interplay of interests and principles in contemporary global politics. For Central Asian countries, their silence on the US action in Venezuela is not a diplomatic vacuum but rather a strategic consideration based on national interests.

US control over Venezuelan oil resources could reshape the global energy landscape and impact energy-exporting countries. However, as Geneva analyst Ismailov noted, the increase in Venezuelan oil production faces technological and financial challenges, and its short-term impact may be limited.

Caught in the crossfire of great power rivalry, Central Asian countries will continue their balancing act, neither openly supporting nor condemning the US action, but rather maintaining pragmatic cooperation with all parties based on their national interests. This flexible and pragmatic diplomatic strategy may be the way for small and medium-sized countries to survive in a turbulent international environment.