Central Asia Remains Silent Amidst the Evolution of the Venezuelan Situation

On the morning of January 3rd local time, the US launched a large-scale military strike against Venezuela, capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife and removing them from the country. This action immediately triggered a strong reaction from the international community. UN Secretary-General Guterres stated that this move could have "worrying consequences" for the region and constitute a "dangerous precedent."

Russia, China, Cuba, and other countries condemned the US for violating international law and the UN Charter. However, in stark contrast, five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—maintained an unusual silence on this matter.

01 The Silent Central Asia: Balancing Geographical Distance and Strategic Considerations

Central Asia is more than 10,000 kilometers away from Venezuela, and bilateral trade is minimal. This means that the current uncertain and constantly changing situation in Venezuela is not a direct focus of attention for Central Asian countries.

This silence is not accidental, but rather a reflection of the balancing strategy adopted by Central Asian countries in the long-standing great power rivalry. On issues such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Central Asian countries have maintained a neutral stance, refraining from publicly taking sides.

In September 2023, the United States and the five Central Asian countries held the "C5+1" summit in Washington, marking a significant upgrade in US-Central Asian cooperation. Subsequently, in November 2025, the leaders of the five Central Asian countries gathered again in Washington for a summit with Trump, demonstrating the increasingly close relationship between the US and Central Asian nations.

02 The US Central Asia Strategy: From Periphery to Focus

The US strategic positioning of the Central Asia region has undergone significant changes. In February 2020, the "United States Central Asia Strategy (2019-2025): Strengthening Sovereignty and Promoting Economic Prosperity," released during the later stages of Trump's presidency, defined the region, including Central Asia, as a "geostrategic region vital to US national security interests."

Less than a year into his presidency, the Trump administration unexpectedly held a meeting with the leaders of the five Central Asian countries against the backdrop of the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, demonstrating Washington's emphasis on Central Asian diplomacy.

From a strategic perspective, the US strategy towards Central Asia focuses primarily on three aspects: ensuring the security of key mineral supply chains, enhancing economic and trade investment cooperation, and laying the groundwork for geostrategic maneuvering. These strategic considerations are far removed from the Venezuelan issue, which may be one reason why Central Asian countries are reluctant to publicly comment on the Maduro situation.

03 Russia's Traditional Influence and its Balancing Act in Central Asia

Faced with the US's active expansion in Central Asia, Russia has not taken it lightly. Russia has strengthened its security cooperation with China through mechanisms such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). On November 27, 2025, the CSTO summit, led by Russia, adopted the "Military Cooperation Development Plan 2026-2030."

In the economic sphere, Russia's trade relations with Central Asian countries are also very close. From 2021 to 2023, Russia's exports to Central Asia accounted for 6.2% of its total exports, an increase of 0.9%; while imports from Central Asia accounted for 4.9%, an increase of 1.6%.

This complex interdependence of economy and security necessitates that Central Asian countries carefully balance the positions of major powers when dealing with international affairs. When Russia condemned the US arrest of Maduro as an "unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state," Central Asian countries could neither openly support Russia's position nor offend the US.

04 Central Asia's Multi-faceted Balanced Diplomacy and the Principle of Sovereignty

Central Asian countries generally adopt a multi-faceted balanced strategy in their foreign policy, aiming to maintain strategic autonomy. This strategy requires them to find a balance among different major powers, avoiding over-reliance on any one party.

For example, in early November 2025, after attending the "C5+1" summit in Washington, Kazakh President Tokayev immediately paid a two-day state visit to Russia and signed a declaration elevating bilateral relations to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. This diplomatic move clearly demonstrates the art of balancing among major powers by Central Asian countries.

Although Central Asian countries have not yet issued an official position on the Maduro incident, they generally express their adherence to the UN's principle of sovereignty. This principle echoes UN Secretary-General Guterres's concern that US military action "could set a dangerous precedent."

05. Uncertainty and Central Asia's Wait-and-See Stance

The situation in Venezuela remains highly uncertain. US Senator Mike Lee announced that Secretary of State Rubio anticipates no further US strikes against Venezuela. However, Trump stated, "The United States is prepared to launch a second attack if necessary."

For Central Asian countries, they are likely closely monitoring developments, waiting for a clearer picture of the US's true intentions in Venezuela before making any statements. This wait-and-see approach aligns with the consistently cautious diplomatic style of Central Asian countries.

Meanwhile, global oil price trends are also a key focus for Central Asian oil-producing nations. So far, the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader has not had a significant impact on global oil prices, meaning that Central Asian oil and gas producers will not be significantly affected in the short term.

As relations between the US and Central Asian countries continue to develop, these countries will more subtly adjust their balancing strategies. The United States plans to hold another summit with Central Asia in 2026, and Kazakhstan will also host its third Future Games in 2026. These interactions will provide Central Asian countries with more room for diplomatic maneuvering.

Against the backdrop of continued geopolitical tensions, major upheavals in one region can still have unpredictable repercussions. Central Asian countries will continue to navigate cautiously amidst great power rivalry, maintaining good relations with all parties while upholding the UN's fundamental principle of sovereignty.