Azerbaijan and the EU strengthen energy and geopolitical cooperation, ushering in new changes in the Caucasus landscape.

The meeting between Azerbaijani President Aliyev and EU Commissioner Kos marks a new phase in the EU's geopolitical and economic strategy in the Caucasus.

On September 18, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos in Baku. The two sides held in-depth discussions on strengthening cooperation in areas such as peacebuilding, energy exports, and regional transport.

Commissioner Kos congratulated President Aliyev on his achievements in normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and advancing the peace agenda, and reiterated the EU's continued support for efforts to achieve lasting peace in the region.

01 Energy Cooperation: EU Seeks Diversified Supply

The EU is actively seeking to diversify its energy supply to reduce its dependence on Russia. Commissioner Kos noted the successful energy cooperation established between the EU and Azerbaijan and emphasized the broad prospects for further cooperation in the transport sector.

President Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan's natural gas exports are currently being exported to 10 European countries, including eight EU member states, and the scope of these exports is continuously expanding.

Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Europe was forced to decouple from the Russian economy, accelerating the de-Russification of the international energy market. The EU plans to completely cease importing Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

Azerbaijan has become a new option for Europe to ensure energy security. In July 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed the "Memorandum of Understanding on the EU-Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership in the Energy Sector" in Azerbaijan, pledging to more than double Azerbaijan's natural gas supply to Europe to 20 billion cubic meters annually by 2027.

02 Geopolitical Shift: Azerbaijan's Multi-Directional Diplomatic Strategy

Located in the Caucasus region at the junction of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan faces a complex geopolitical and security environment and has always been a battleground for great power competition. In recent years, Azerbaijan's diplomacy has become increasingly active, demonstrating distinct characteristics of a "small country with big diplomacy." Since its independence, Azerbaijan has been cautious in handling relations with major powers, adhering to a diversified and balanced major power diplomacy, pursuing a neutral security policy, an open economic policy, and a pluralistic cultural policy.

The Aliyev government has actively developed strategic partnerships with the United States, China, and Europe, joining NATO's Partnership for Peace program and the EU's Eastern Partnership program, and supporting China's Belt and Road Initiative.

At the same time, Azerbaijan's relations with Russia have undergone significant changes. After the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane in western Kazakhstan, relations between Azerbaijan and Russia deteriorated.

Recently, the two countries were embroiled in a full-scale diplomatic crisis over the deaths of two Azerbaijani citizens in Russian custody. Aliyev even publicly advised Ukraine to "never make peace with the occupiers" and publicly called on Ukraine to persevere.

03 Regional Transport Connectivity: Building a New Eurasian Corridor

During the talks, President Aliyev noted the region's enormous potential for building transport connectivity and highlighted Azerbaijan's progress in developing road and transportation infrastructure in the liberated regions, particularly the significant road and railway lines to Zangilan.

Both sides also noted the significant increase in cargo transported from Central Asia to Azerbaijan via the Middle Corridor. This route, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor, makes Azerbaijan an irreplaceable key node—its geographical location currently offers no viable alternatives.

Azerbaijan's proposed Zangezur Corridor plan aims to establish extraterritorial control over a single corridor. In contrast, Armenia's plan aims to promote multilateral connectivity with all its neighbors, including Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The EU supports Armenia's inclusive approach as a path to regional stability and diversification of energy routes. The EU is increasing its investment in infrastructure development and diplomacy.

04 Peacebuilding: The EU's Role as a Mediator

Commissioner Kos commended Azerbaijan's work on humanitarian mine clearance and congratulated Aliyev on his progress in normalizing relations with Armenia.

She pledged the EU's continued efforts for stability and peace in the region. In recent years, the conflict and peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been central issues in the Caucasus.

In 2020, Azerbaijan, with Turkish military support, launched the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War over 44 days, retaking most of the territory in the region. In the fall of 2023, Azerbaijan took action again, fully asserting control over the region.

In January 2024, Azerbaijan and Armenia resolved their differences over Nagorno-Karabakh through Russian mediation. However, Russia's influence in the Caucasus is declining due to its involvement in the Ukrainian war.

The EU is leveraging this opportunity to expand its influence in the region. Commissioner Kos's visit to Azerbaijan and the EU's support for the regional peace process are part of this effort.

05 The Significance of EU-Azerbaijan Cooperation in a Global Perspective

EU-Azerbaijan cooperation goes beyond bilateral relations and has broad regional and international significance. The EU is Azerbaijan's main trading partner, accounting for approximately 41.2% of its total merchandise trade, including 63.3% of exports and 13.2% of imports. It is also a significant source of investment for the country.

Azerbaijan is also a key partner for the United States. American resource companies have been active in Azerbaijan, proposing to build the Trans-Caspian Pipeline and offering relatively low bids.

In 2023, against the backdrop of sanctions against Russia, the US Treasury Department issued a waiver: any company investing in the Caspian oil and gas pipeline will be exempted from sanctions.

For China, strengthened cooperation between the EU and Azerbaijan also has certain significance. China can participate in this project through its existing energy cooperation with Turkmenistan, providing equipment, technology, and construction personnel through normal project contracting.

China could also consider including the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project on the agenda of discussions at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and China-Central Asia Summits, striving for a voice in the project.

With the significant growth in freight volume along the Middle Corridor and the advancement of the Zangezur Corridor, Azerbaijan is transforming from a geographical intersection of Eurasia to a strategic connectivity hub.

The EU's high dependence on Azerbaijani natural gas and its deep involvement in regional security architecture are making this Caspian nation a key force influencing Europe's energy security and geopolitical balance.

The balance of power in the Caucasus region is quietly reshaping, and a new landscape of great power competition and regional cooperation is emerging.