Armenian opposition launches no-confidence motion, posing a governance crisis for the Pashinyan government.

The Armenian opposition bloc "With Honour" submitted a draft statement to parliament, calling for a vote of no-confidence in Prime Minister Pashinyan. This political maneuvering reflects the geopolitical competition between major powers.

On September 17, the Armenian opposition bloc "With Honour" submitted a draft statement to parliament, calling for a vote of no-confidence in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. This is the second opposition attempt this year to overthrow the Pashinyan government.

The opposition accuses the Pashinyan government of mismanagement, endangering the country's future, and of being responsible for policies that led to the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

01 Opposition No-Confidence Motion

The opposition bloc "With Honour," led by leader Heike Mamijanyan, released the no-confidence motion statement on Facebook. The statement accuses the Pashinyan government of "failing to fulfill its responsibilities" and "seriously deviating" from approved plans, triggering a "systemic crisis at all levels of public administration."

The statement noted: "The government's destructive actions in all areas of public administration—security, foreign policy, the economy, and social security—demonstrate a fundamental lack of capacity and vision."

The opposition believes the prime minister "has irreversibly lost his legitimacy to govern the country, and his continued rule poses a threat to the survival of the Republic of Armenia."

02 Roots of the Political Crisis

The roots of this political crisis can be traced back to the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in which Armenia lost control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan.

Despite the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces, many Armenians believe that Russia has not provided sufficient support. This failure marked a major turning point in Pashinyan's presidency and the beginning of his decline in public support.

Pashinyan came to power in 2018 amidst massive protests and was hailed as the leader of the "Velvet Revolution." However, in recent years, he has faced increasing criticism for his handling of the war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and its aftermath, as well as his efforts to normalize relations with neighboring countries.

03 Geopolitical Shift

The Pashinyan government's foreign policy shift has been a focal point of controversy. In recent years, Armenia has gradually shifted from its traditional pro-Russian stance toward the West, seeking to strengthen cooperation with the EU and the US.

In 2023, Armenia held joint military exercises with the US, sparking dissatisfaction from Russia. Pashinyan also stated, "Russia itself needs weapons and ammunition and cannot meet Armenia's security needs. This demonstrates that relying solely on one partner (Russia) on security issues is a strategic mistake."

Most notably, in September 2025, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Armenia established a strategic partnership with China and also established historic diplomatic ties with Pakistan. This "eastward shift" disrupted Western strategic planning and further weakened Russia's influence in the Caucasus region.

04 Economic and Military Pressure

Economic pressure also poses a significant challenge to the Armenian government. Currently, Armenia's national debt exceeds 50% of GDP, and its fiscal deficit reaches 5%.

International ratings agency Fitch has warned that its increased spending will undermine the country's fiscal stability. Faced with economic difficulties, the government plans to cut defense spending in 2026. Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that the military budget will not increase next year, arguing that current security risks have been reduced due to the progress of the peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

The country's defense budget will account for 6.1% of GDP (approximately $1.7 billion) in 2025, a 20% increase from 2024, but the absolute amount or budgetary share may be reduced in the future.

The opposition has criticized these military spending cuts as ignoring national security risks, especially amid ongoing border frictions with Azerbaijan.

05 Constitutional and Legal Challenges

According to Armenian law, a motion of no confidence requires the signatures of at least 36 members of parliament and the support of 54 votes in the 107-seat parliament to pass.

Currently, the two opposition coalitions hold a total of 34 seats, with four independent members. This means that the opposition will need to gain the support of more members of the ruling coalition to successfully overthrow the government.

This is not the first time the opposition has attempted to overthrow Pashinyan's government. In May 2025, "With Honour" leader Ek Mamjanyan stated that he was ready to initiate impeachment proceedings against the prime minister.

At the time, Mamjanyan stated, "Currently, the most likely way to achieve a change of power is through a process of expressing no confidence in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan."

06 Regional and International Reactions

Armenia's political crisis has attracted attention from the regional and international communities. Russia, a traditional ally, has expressed dissatisfaction with the Pashinyan government's Western shift.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova has stated that she completely rejects Pashinyan's accusation that the CSTO is ineffective. Russia also accused Armenia of choosing to invite "pseudo-observers" from the EU rather than accepting the protection offered by the CSTO.

Western countries have also expressed concern about Armenia's political developments. Both the EU and the US hope that Armenia will maintain stability and continue to advance democratic reforms and cooperation with the West.

China has developed a strategic partnership with Armenia within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), expressed support for Armenia's accession to the SCO, and is promoting infrastructure upgrades and connectivity under the Belt and Road Initiative.

07 Possible Future Scenarios

Analysts believe there are three possible scenarios for the Armenian political crisis: first, the Pashinyan government successfully resists a no-confidence motion and remains in power, but with weakened power; second, early elections are held to redistribute political power; and third, a transitional government is formed to stabilize the situation.

In a statement, the opposition called for the formation of a transitional government to stabilize national security, restore the rule of law, and prepare for free elections. They stated, "The time for change has come before potentially new catastrophic consequences are imminent," and urged other political forces, civic groups, and the public to support this initiative.

Regional experts point out that Armenia's political crisis is not only an internal affair of one country but also a reflection of the geopolitical dynamics in the Caucasus. Russia, Turkey, Iran, Western countries, and China are closely watching developments, as Armenia's political direction will impact the balance of power across the region.

Armenia's 107-seat parliament is witnessing a political tug-of-war: the opposition needs 54 votes to pass a no-confidence motion, yet it currently holds only 34 seats.

Political analysts point out that even if the motion fails, Pashinyan's leadership authority will be severely weakened. Cracks are emerging within his ruling coalition, and with economic pressures and security challenges intertwined, Armenia stands at a new crossroads.