Afghanistan in the Geopolitical Chessboard of Central Asia: From Historical Discontinuity to Regional Integration

Introduction: The Tashkent Conference and the Strategic Shift in Central Asia

On November 16, 2025, at the Seventh Consultative Conference of Central Asian Heads of State in Tashkent, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's speech reflected a profound shift in regional policy: "Peace and stability throughout Central Asia largely depend on the recovery and development of Afghanistan." This statement marks a historic turning point in the attitudes of the five Central Asian countries towards Afghanistan—from vigilance and isolation to proactive integration. The participating countries included not only Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, but also Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, jointly exploring the feasibility of integrating Afghanistan into the regional energy and transportation network. Behind this trend lies a new attempt by Central Asian countries to seek strategic autonomy against the backdrop of the reshuffling of great power power.

Historical Discontinuity: Afghanistan's Fate as a "Buffer Zone"

Afghanistan's ties to Central Asia can be traced back to the Persian Empire, but its modern geopolitical role began in the 19th-century "Great Game." As the Russian and British Empires vied for dominance in Central and South Asia, Afghanistan, founded in 1855, became one of the fiercest battlegrounds. The three Anglo-Afghan Wars (1838-1842; 1878-1880; 1919) ultimately ended with the Anglo-Afghan Treaty, in which Britain recognized Afghan independence, but the country never escaped its fate as a "buffer state."

After the establishment of the Kingdom of Afghanistan in 1926, Amanullah Khan implemented reforms in an attempt to modernize the country, but these efforts were abruptly halted by tribal forces and external interference. While the rule of Mohammed Zahir Shah from 1933 to 1973 established a constitutional monarchy, Afghanistan descended into continuous conflict after the 1973 coup: the April Revolution of 1978, the Soviet invasion of 1979, the civil war of the 1990s, the Taliban's first rise to power, and the US intervention in 2001. Shavkat Mirziyoyev frankly stated at the conference: "The region has always been plagued by historical conflicts and has always been seen as dangerous and fraught with contradictions."

Taliban's Return to Power and a Pragmatic Shift in Central Asia

Following the US withdrawal in 2021, the Taliban returned to Kabul, posing a dual challenge of security and cooperation to Central Asian countries. Although the Taliban remains a terrorist organization in Tajikistan, Turkey, and Canada, the attitudes of regional countries have subtly shifted: Kazakhstan removed it from the terrorist list in 2023, and in July 2025, Russia became the first country in the world to officially recognize the Taliban regime. This chain reaction led to the Tashkent Conference in August 2025, where representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan discussed establishing a "Contact Group on Afghanistan," with the core logic, as Mirziyoyev stated, being: "to integrate Afghanistan into energy and transportation projects."

Project-Driven: Interconnection of Railways, Natural Gas, and Electricity

The core of Central Asian cooperation with Afghanistan is supported by specific projects:

1. Trans-Afghanistan Railway: A 573-kilometer railway network is planned to connect Central Asia with the Indian Ocean, with an annual throughput of 20 million tons. Uzbekistan signed a $1 billion construction agreement in 2023, aiming to open up a sea outlet for Central Asia;

2. TAPI Gas Pipeline: The Turkmenistan-led Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline project has been restarted, attempting to transport Central Asian energy to South Asia;

3. Electricity Supply Agreement: Tajikistan and the Taliban signed a power supply agreement, alleviating Afghanistan's energy shortage while enhancing Tajikistan's hydropower export capacity. These projects are not only economically significant but also imbued with geopolitical importance. As stated in the conference documents, "Afghanistan is considered part of Central Asia," despite never formally joining the Soviet Union.

Great Power Rivalry and the Balancing Act in Central Asia

The adjustments in Central Asian countries' policies toward Afghanistan reflect the evolution of the global power structure. Russia's recognition of the Taliban has shaken the West's isolation strategy, while China's investment in Central Asian infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative has strengthened the need for regional connectivity. Following the US withdrawal, Central Asian countries have had to reassess security risks: preventing the spillover of Afghan unrest while avoiding over-reliance on any single major power. Uzbekistan's proposal to establish the Fergana Peace Forum as a permanent platform is an attempt to mitigate unilateral risks through a multilateral mechanism.

Challenges and Prospects

The integration process still faces structural obstacles: the Taliban regime has not yet gained widespread recognition, the human rights situation in Afghanistan has sparked international controversy, and tribal separatism and the presence of extremist groups within Afghanistan threaten project security. However, the choices made by Central Asian countries reflect a pragmatic logic—rather than isolating a potential source of instability, it is better to promote stability through economic ties. Following the Tashkent Conference, Uzbekistan announced plans to train Afghan personnel for Amu Darya water resource management, an extension of this approach.

Conclusion: Redefining the "Central Asian Family"

Judging from the statements of Central Asian leaders, Afghanistan is transforming from a "heterogeneous entity" into a potential component of the regional system. Shavkat Mirziyoyev's appeal—"Peace and stability throughout Central Asia largely depend on the recovery and development of Afghanistan"—is not only an acknowledgment of reality but also an investment in the future. In an era of fragmented globalization, Central Asia's attempt to resolve its security dilemma through economic integration may provide a reference for other conflict zones. However, its success ultimately depends on the project's implementation capabilities, the transformation of the Taliban regime, and the degree to which great power competition cools down.