A turning point in the century-old feud between Turkey and Armenia is emerging, ushering in a glimmer of hope for peace in the Caucasus.

The historic handshake between Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and Turkish President Erdogan has opened a new chapter in reconciliation between the two feuding nations. This groundbreaking event underscores profound geopolitical shifts.

In September 2025, Turkish and Armenian official delegations plan to meet to discuss the normalization of bilateral relations and border issues. This will be the first such meeting between the two countries in recent years.

The Turkish delegation, led by Turkish Foreign Ministry Ambassador Serdar Kılıç, will travel to Armenia via the Alican border crossing. The talks are expected to include several decisions on the normalization of bilateral relations and discuss the implementation of agreed measures.

01 Historical Grudges: From Genocide Controversy to Border Closure

The historical grudge between Turkey and Armenia dates back to the Ottoman Empire. The 1915 events are called "genocide" by Armenians, while the Turkish government denies the accusation, calling them a tragedy of wartime.

In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and Armenia gained independence. Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia's independence. However, the two countries have not yet established formal diplomatic relations.

In 1993, due to the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Turkey closed its border with Armenia and severed diplomatic and commercial relations. Since then, goods shipped between the two countries have had to transit through Georgian territory.

02 Normalization Efforts: From "Football Diplomacy" to Special Envoy Meetings

Efforts to normalize relations between the two countries did not begin today. In 2008, the two countries engaged in "football diplomacy," when Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan invited Turkish President Abdel Fattah al-Gul to a football match.

In 2009, the foreign ministers of the two countries signed a protocol establishing diplomatic relations in Zurich, but these documents have not yet been ratified.

The Second Karabakh War in 2020 marked a turning point. The Armenian army suffered a heavy defeat and completely withdrew from the disputed area. Turkey provided utmost support to its Azerbaijani ally throughout this process.

In January 2022, the two countries' special representatives held their first meeting in Moscow, initiating the normalization process. This was followed by multiple rounds of talks in Vienna.

03 Recent Breakthrough: Historic Leaders' Meeting and Practical Cooperation

On June 20, 2025, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Turkey and met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. This was the first meeting between the two leaders and was of historic significance.

In addition to the Armenian Prime Minister, 12 members of the Armenian government and parliament, including Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, also arrived in Turkey on the same flight.

The two sides discussed the normalization of bilateral relations, the peace process with Azerbaijan, and regional tensions. Pashinyan called the meeting "historic," while Erdogan emphasized Turkey's commitment to regional stability and peace.

04 Realistic Drivers: Economic Needs and Geopolitical Change

Armenia is surrounded by Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran, and has no land border with Russia. Two-thirds of its trade flows through Georgia. This geographical isolation makes it urgent for Armenia to break free from regional isolation.

Research shows that opening its borders could reduce Armenia's transportation costs by 10% to 20%, significantly increase exports to Turkey, and enhance the competitiveness of Armenian goods in the EU market. In the short term, Armenia's exports could increase by 5%, and by 17.7% in the medium term.

In 2023, Armenia launched the "Crossroads of Peace" initiative, aiming to strengthen transportation and economic ties with neighboring countries and become a key node connecting Europe, Central Asia, and China. Armenia is seeking to align this initiative with China's Belt and Road Initiative and the EU's "Global Gateway" strategy.

05 Remaining Challenges: The Azerbaijan Factor and Diverging Historical Perceptions

Turkey and Azerbaijan maintain a special relationship. Ankara has repeatedly stressed that Yerevan must first sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan before bilateral relations can be unblocked.

The Zangezir Corridor issue is also a point of contention. Erdogan insists on opening the Zangezir Corridor—a road from Azerbaijan through southern Armenia to Turkey. Armenia, on the other hand, says it only agrees to the construction of the "Trump Road," and that it must be carried out in conjunction with a general thaw in regional communications.

Armenia is divided over the normalization process. The opposition accuses the government of abandoning its demands for international recognition of the genocide and backing down on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Diaspora Armenians also protest the signing of the protocol as overly acquisitive.

06 International Reaction: Great Power Attitudes and Regional Influence

The United States welcomes the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia. A US State Department spokesperson stated that the normalization negotiations are "a positive step towards bringing peace and stability to the South Caucasus."

Russia has also expressed interest in the process. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated that "Turkey and Russia play the most active roles in the South Caucasus." Some analysts believe that the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia is the result of a compromise between Russia and the United States in the South Caucasus.

In August 2025, Armenia also established diplomatic relations with Pakistan. The relevant documents were signed by the Foreign Minister at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China on August 31st. This indicates that Armenia is comprehensively improving its relations with Muslim countries.

Experts are cautious about the prospects for negotiations. Alexander Krylov, an expert at the Caucasus Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes: "The current negotiation process will not lead to a breakthrough. Turkey supports the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In Ankara, they have directly stated that there will be no normalization as long as Yerevan and Baku do not resolve relations issues."

A railway connection may be the first concrete achievement. The two sides have agreed to "assess the technical requirements to enable the Akurik/Ayaka railway border crossing to operate in accordance with regional developments." This railway was a key route between the two countries until Turkey closed the border in 1993.

Border crossing modernization has already begun. In November 2023, Armenia completed the overhaul of the Margara checkpoint. In July 2025, Pashinyan personally inspected the AMD 1 billion project.