A shadow war between Iran and the Armenian diaspora undermines peace in the South Caucasus.

The peace process in the South Caucasus is being eroded by an invisible conflict between external forces and diaspora communities. A shadow war involving Iran and the Armenian diaspora is quietly underway, threatening regional stability.

In August 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a historic peace agreement brokered by the United States, unexpectedly triggering a new round of regional instability. An advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader warned that the corridor, dubbed the "Trump International Pathway for Peace and Prosperity," would become a "graveyard for Trump's mercenaries."

Meanwhile, pro-Iranian and pro-Russian Armenian diaspora communities launched a fierce campaign condemning the agreement as a new "Munich Agreement." These forces together form an invisible front undermining peace in the South Caucasus.

01 Historic Peace Agreement and Regional Response

On August 8, 2025, US President Trump presided over the signing ceremony of a historic peace agreement between Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev at the White House. The agreement ended decades of hostility between the two countries and outlined a transit corridor connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan.

Named the "Trump Pathway to International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP), this corridor grants the United States exclusive development rights for the next 99 years. After the signing of the agreement, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly stated that the corridor would pass through Armenia's southern provinces near the Iranian border.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova outwardly affirmed the peace talks but implicitly criticized the United States for "extraterritorial interference and chaos," emphasizing that the South Caucasus issue should be resolved through a regional solution supported by Russia, Iran, and Turkey.

02 Iran's Strong Opposition and Security Concerns

Iran expressed the strongest opposition to the peace agreement. Velayati, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei, claimed, "Trump seems to think he's a real estate agent looking to rent a piece of land or region. The South Caucasus is not a 'no man's land' that US President Trump can rent."

Iran's security concerns primarily focus on geostrategic issues. If implemented, the TRIPP plan would alter the region's geopolitical status and borders, potentially severing land links between Iran and Armenia and impacting Iran's trade with Europe.

Tehran also fears that the corridor will facilitate US infiltration into the Caucasus, posing a threat to its national security. Velayati revealed that the US intends to push NATO forces to Iran's northern border through Turkey, "much like NATO is encroaching on Russia through Ukraine."

03 The Role and Influence of the Armenian Diaspora

Armenian diaspora groups have become a significant force opposing the agreement. The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), particularly its policy director Alex Garitsky, has closely followed Tehran's lead, consistently criticizing Israel and the peace agreement.

These pro-Iranian and pro-Russian Armenian diaspora groups not only attack the peace agreement but also follow progressive factions within the Democratic Party in their constant criticism of President Trump. Prominent left-leaning scholars such as development economist Jeffrey Sachs have also joined the opposition, openly supporting the Kremlin's stance on the Ukrainian war.

Sachs insisted that the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments "are being exploited by the United States and Europe for geopolitical purposes that are not in their own interests." These arguments are highly consistent with Russian and Iranian propaganda.

04 The Multidimensional Manifestations of a Shadow War

This shadow war is unfolding across multiple fronts. Iran is accused of cultivating its own lobbying forces, supporters, and Iranian-aligned business interests in Armenia. Meanwhile, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Deputy Commander Javani directly warned Armenia and Azerbaijan that Iran would take necessary measures, including military means, to prevent the construction.

Information warfare has become a key battleground. Russian and Iranian propaganda outlets have continuously spread anti-agreement rhetoric, while Armenian diaspora groups have amplified this information. Media platforms such as Iran International Television have been used as tools to confuse fact and fiction.

Economically, Iran fears that the TRIPP corridor will deprive it of the Iran-Armenia natural gas pipeline and the "gas-for-power" mechanism, which provides Tehran with economic means and energy system connectivity.

05 Geostrategic Game among Great Powers

By brokering this agreement, the United States successfully replaced Russia and Iran as the primary mediator in the South Caucasus. This shift marked a significant change in the regional balance of power, weakening Russia's traditional dominance.

Russia was marginalized due to its own strategic miscalculations. In 2023, when Azerbaijan forcibly seized Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian peacekeepers failed to prevent it, leaving Armenia feeling abandoned.

Turkey emerged as an economic winner. At the end of July 2025, Turkey secured a $2.8 billion investment to connect Turkey's railway network with Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan region. Ankara plans to transform the TRIPP route into a pillar of east-west trade.

06 Potential Conflict Risks and Regional Impact

Iran warned that Trump's "peacekeeping" adventure would likely not bring peace to the South Caucasus, but instead exacerbate tensions in the region. This could lead to a war even more devastating than the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Ethnic issues exacerbate the complexity. Iran has approximately 25 million ethnic Azerbaijanis, representing 25% of its total population. Azerbaijani President Aliyev has long advocated for the sovereignty dispute over "South Azerbaijan" (an ethnic Azerbaijani region within Iran), sparking concern in Tehran.

Regional arms developments are also troubling. Reports have surfaced of potential Iranian arms sales to Armenia, though both sides have denied the allegations. Such sales could further undermine regional stability and complicate the peace process.

The chess game in the South Caucasus extends beyond Baku and Yerevan to Tehran, Moscow, Washington, and the global community of the Armenian diaspora.

While people on the streets of Tbilisi watch the local elections on October 4th, officials in Tehran, Moscow, and Washington are closely monitoring a deeper shadow war that could redraw the geopolitical map of the Black Sea region.

As diplomats from major powers spent the night studying the Minnesota Protocol, a crisis management manual left over from the Cold War, at the United Nations headquarters in Geneva, peace in the South Caucasus region remained unresolved.