A photo of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and Russian President Vladimir Putin has sparked widespread speculation in Georgia.

"The Ashgabat meeting is of great significance," said Georgian Parliament Deputy Speaker Georgy Volsky bluntly. "The Prime Minister is going to a place where decisions and plans for Georgia's future are being made. Although Georgia is the only country without diplomatic relations with Russia, the meeting with the Azerbaijani Prime Minister is crucial."

A photo of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the "Peace and Trust" conference in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan in 2025 has drawn widespread criticism. Opposition critics argue that this suggests Tbilisi may be distancing itself from the West and turning to a Moscow-backed "Georgian neutrality" ideology.

However, Kobakhidze refuted these claims, calling them "complete nonsense." He emphasized that the visit aimed to strengthen relations with Central Asian countries and maintain ties with neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia.

01 Geopolitical Chessboard: A Strategic Reshuffling in the South Caucasus

The South Caucasus region is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation. In recent years, the United States has significantly increased its presence in the region, Azerbaijan and Turkey have risen in strategic importance, while Iran has expressed strong concerns about external intervention.

Located at the crossroads of Eurasia, this region covers approximately 180,000 square kilometers, bordered by the Black Sea to the west, the Caspian Sea to the east, the Greater Caucasus Mountains to the north, and Iran and Turkey to the south. Its "corridor" characteristic connecting Europe and Asia makes its strategic value undeniable for any empire seeking to control Eurasian landmass.

Historically, this land has witnessed Persian caravans, Roman legions, Turkic tribes, and Arab... The history of scholars and Mongol cavalry. Since the 16th century, the Ottoman and Safavid Empires competed here, ultimately giving way to the rising Russian Empire.

Today, a new round of great power rivalry is unfolding on this land. The United States is enhancing its strategic presence through mediation and economic aid, while the European Union, after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, has become more reliant on imports of Azerbaijani natural gas and is vigorously promoting trans-Caspian energy transport projects, attempting to weaken the influence of Russia and Iran in the region.

Against this backdrop, Georgia's choice to go to Ashgabat to participate in a forum themed on the UN International Year of Peace and Trust and the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan's permanent neutrality reflects its diversified and balanced diplomatic thinking.

02 Georgia's Neutrality Dilemma: Surviving Between East and West

Georgia's diplomatic choices reflect the real predicament of small countries in the power struggles of major powers. Despite its long-standing aspiration to join NATO, Georgia has made independent judgments based on its national interests at crucial moments.

Following Russia's special military action against Ukraine in 2022, the United States pressured the world to impose sanctions on Russia. However, as a "quasi-ally" of the United States and an active applicant for NATO membership, the Georgian government decided not to participate in economic sanctions against Russia.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili explained at the time that this decision stemmed from Georgia's significant economic dependence on Russia. From 2013 to 2021, Georgia exported agricultural products to Russia... The value of Russian goods in Georgia exceeds $2 billion, with other products worth approximately $3 billion. In the past five years, about 5 million Russians have visited Georgia, generating $3 billion in revenue. Additionally, about 1 million Georgians live or work in Russia, receiving remittances of $500 million annually.

Under these circumstances, imposing sanctions on Russia is tantamount to self-sanctions and is completely contrary to the interests of the nation and its people. Public opinion polls also show that 64% of Georgians support the government's decision not to participate in sanctions against Russia, and 76.4% support Georgia's policy of neutrality and non-intervention in Russia's military action against Ukraine.

Georgia's "unconventional" approach reflects the survival wisdom of a small country in the game of great power rivalry—maintaining its strategic direction while avoiding excessive provocation of its powerful neighbor.

03 Energy Corridors: Georgia's Economic Lifeline and Strategic Weapon

Energy transportation corridors constitute a vital pillar of Georgia's economic development and are a key manifestation of its geopolitical value. As a crucial hub connecting Caspian energy resources with European markets, Georgia's stability is of paramount importance to European energy security.

Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Idayat Asadov has stated that Georgia and Azerbaijan are jointly contributing to European energy security, including advancing strategic projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

In recent years, trans-Caspian... The importance of the natural gas pipeline project is increasingly evident. This project will enable Turkmen natural gas to be transported on a large scale to Europe via Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.

Although the EU has expressed interest in the project, it has shown hesitation regarding financing. On the one hand, the EU and European banks are influenced by the so-called "green agenda" in financing fossil fuel projects; on the other hand, they are also concerned about Georgia's stability.

In July 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, speaking about the project, frankly stated: "European banks have now stopped providing funding for fossil fuel projects. Therefore, raising substantial funds for this will be very difficult."

Nevertheless, Georgia's stability remains a key factor in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze's visit to Turkmenistan sent a clear signal: the situation in Georgia has completely stabilized, and there is no risk to the energy transit project.

04 Trade Corridors: Close Ties Between Georgia and Azerbaijan

In Georgia's diplomatic strategy, its relationship with Azerbaijan holds a special place. According to the latest data, Georgia has officially entered Azerbaijan's list of top ten trading partners.

In the first eight months of 2025, bilateral trade between Georgia and Azerbaijan reached US$541.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, ranking among the highest growth rates among Azerbaijan's major trading partners.

Besides traditional energy cooperation, the two countries are also cooperating closely in the field of transportation infrastructure. Azerbaijani Prime Minister Asadov has stated, "We have seen Georgia's progress in railway modernization, port construction, and road infrastructure development..." "The efforts made are very gratifying."

He pointed out that the Black Sea ports of Batumi and Poti are "important components" of the Belt and Road Initiative, and projects to build new port infrastructure have been included in the bilateral cooperation agenda.

Furthermore, the Black Sea submarine cable project—a new transmission line carrying green energy from the South Caucasus to Europe—will further strengthen Georgia and Azerbaijan's positions in the European energy supply chain.

These close economic ties are a key context for Prime Minister Kobakhidze's controversial trip to Ashgabat to meet with the Azerbaijani Prime Minister. Such direct dialogue is particularly important at a time when "worrying signs" are emerging in relations between Tbilisi and Baku.

05 Neutrality: A Survival Strategy for Small Nations in Great Power Competition

Georgia's diplomatic strategy reflects the common wisdom of small and medium-sized countries seeking survival in the competition among great powers. At the thematic forums commemorating the UN International Year of Peace and Trust and the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan's permanent neutrality, Georgia demonstrated a profound understanding of neutrality policy.

In fact, international mechanisms such as the "Friends of Neutrality Group" have provided a beneficial platform for like-minded countries to enhance mutual understanding and trust, deepen exchanges and cooperation, and practice multilateralism. In September 2025, China proposed a global governance initiative, emphasizing adherence to sovereign equality, compliance with international rule of law, and the practice of multilateralism.

This initiative aligns with Georgia's... Georgia's approach aligns with the principles advocated at the Central Asia Forum. In the current era of global upheaval and change, with the UN and multilateralism facing headwinds, smaller nations increasingly need to leverage international law and multilateral mechanisms to safeguard their interests.

Kobakhidze's visit to Turkmenistan is part of Georgia's efforts to expand relations with Central Asian countries and implement multilateral diplomacy. The core of this diplomatic strategy lies in diversifying its resources through broad international cooperation to mitigate risks and achieve a balance in the great power game.

As Deputy Speaker Volsky stated, "Even Putin's involvement doesn't mean the Prime Minister shouldn't meet with the Azerbaijani Prime Minister. If you have grievances against Turkmenistan or its governance, it doesn't mean we shouldn't protect our own interests when we see such examples." Trade between Georgia and Azerbaijan reached $541.67 million in the first eight months of 2025, a 32.3% increase, placing Georgia among Azerbaijan's top ten trading partners. Behind these figures lies Georgia's growing value as a transport corridor for the regional economy.

With the US securing 99-year development rights to the Zangizur Corridor, Russia's traditional influence waning, and Turkey's rising status, the South Caucasus map is being reshaped. Georgia's choice is neither simply to align with the West nor to revert to Russia, but rather to pursue a difficult yet pragmatic middle path. This path, like Turkmenistan's policy of permanent neutrality, offers small countries another possibility for survival in the power struggles of major nations.