India's Withdrawal from Aini Air Base: Strategic Adjustments and Regional Rebalancing in the Central Asian Geopolitical Game

The Indian military's quiet withdrawal from the Aini Air Base in Tajikistan marks the end of a two-decade-long forward military presence in Central Asia by this South Asian power. This action, proposed by Tajikistan months ago and ultimately confirmed by senior Indian officials, is not only the end of a military deployment but also a crucial window into the evolution of the geopolitical landscape in Central Asia in the post-Afghan War era. The twenty-year history of the Aini base reflects India's ambition for regional influence, the subtle interactions between major powers, and the sophisticated great power balancing tactics of landlocked Central Asian countries.

I. Strategic Pivot: The Twenty-Year Mission of the Aini Base

The strategic value of the Aini Air Base stems from its unique geographical location. Situated near Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, the base provided India with a long-desired "Central Asian foothold." Since its deployment began around 2002, its main strategic functions have manifested in three levels:

1. A platform for projecting regional influence: As India's first such base operating overseas, Aini is a concrete manifestation of its "extended neighbor" policy. By assisting Tajikistan in upgrading the base's infrastructure and deploying its own military personnel (primarily operating Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters and transport aircraft), India established a small but symbolically significant presence. This laid a substantial foundation for defense cooperation between India and the five Central Asian countries, particularly with host country Tajikistan, including joint training, military exchanges, and humanitarian assistance.

2. A surveillance and logistical hub in Afghanistan: The location adjacent to Afghanistan gave Aini base special value during the two decades of the Afghan war following 2001. It served as a potential transit point for India to provide non-lethal material assistance to the legitimate Afghan government, and as an outpost for monitoring the situation along Afghanistan's northern border and responding to the risk of extremist spillover. During the presence of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, the base also implied the potential for intelligence sharing and logistical cooperation with Western allies.

3. Countering Pakistan's Strategic Depth: For India, gaining a military presence on Pakistan's western flank has profound geopolitical significance. This creates a "pincer attack" on Pakistan, albeit on a limited scale, but enhances India's strategic options and deterrent capabilities, especially against the backdrop of ongoing tensions over Kashmir.

II. Motives for Withdrawal: An Inevitable Choice Under Multiple Pressures

India's withdrawal from Aini is not due to a single factor, but rather the result of a combination of regional power structure shifts, host country strategic adjustments, and the evolution of the global landscape.

1. Tajikistan's Strategic Rebalancing: As a sovereign state, Tajikistan's core foreign policy is to maintain a balance of power among major powers and ensure the maximization of its national security and interests. The decision to demand India's withdrawal reflects Dushanbe's reassessment of the current regional power balance.

* Russia's Core Concerns: Russia has always viewed Central Asia as its traditional sphere of influence and strategic backyard. Although India is a long-time ally of Russia, its military presence in Central Asia, particularly its potentially independently operating bases, still touches a nerve with Moscow. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has placed greater emphasis on consolidating its backyard, potentially exerting greater influence over Tajikistan and demanding that it reduce deep military cooperation with non-regional powers to ensure security dominance within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) framework.

* China's Economic and Strategic Attraction: In recent years, China has established close economic and security ties with Tajikistan through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly the deepening of Sino-Tajik cooperation. Tajikistan's dependence on China has grown increasingly deep in areas such as infrastructure construction, debt management, and counter-terrorism cooperation. Maintaining good relations with China has become a priority, which may mean adjusting cooperation with other major powers in certain areas to align with Beijing's strategic comfort level.

2. Strategic Value Reassessment Following the Afghan Revolution: The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 fundamentally altered the regional security environment. India's influence in Afghanistan has shrunk dramatically, and the value of its previously indirectly acquired strategic corridors through support of the Kabul government has significantly decreased. The surveillance and rapid response capabilities of the Aini base in Afghanistan have consequently depreciated, reducing the strategic benefit ratio of maintaining the base's high costs.

3. India's Pragmatic Adjustment of Regional Strategy: Faced with a changing environment, India's withdrawal reflects its pragmatism. Rather than clinging to a foothold with increasingly high political costs and diminishing strategic effectiveness, it is better to proactively adjust and avoid direct friction with China and Russia. India may shift more resources to other more sustainable regional cooperation models, such as enhancing economic connectivity through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), or deepening bilateral defense and investment relations with other Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

III. Global and Regional Impact: Subtle Shifts in the Power Structure

India's withdrawal from the Aini base will have a ripple effect on the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia and its surrounding areas.

1. Demonstration of Russian Influence: This move is seen as a sign that Russia has successfully maintained its position as the "primary external guarantor" of security affairs in Central Asia. It demonstrates that Moscow still possesses significant influence over regional partners in key security areas and can effectively constrain the military penetration of other major powers.

2. Potential Expansion of China's Strategic Space: India's withdrawal of its military presence objectively reduces the number of participants in the great power game in Central Asia, potentially providing space for China to further consolidate its influence. China can focus more on deepening security and economic cooperation with Central Asian countries through the SCO framework and bilateral channels, particularly in counter-terrorism and infrastructure construction.

3. Challenges and Transformation of India's Central Asia Strategy: The withdrawal is a setback for India's Central Asia strategy, exposing its limitations as an "extra-regional power" when facing pressure from traditional regional powers (Russia and China). India needs to reassess the implementation path of its "connecting Central Asia" strategy, potentially focusing more on low-political areas such as soft power, economic cooperation, energy partnerships, and talent development to build a more resilient long-term influence.

4. The Balancing Act of Central Asian Countries: Tajikistan's move demonstrates the agency of small and medium-sized countries in the great power game. By allowing India's entry and ultimately demanding its withdrawal, it skillfully managed its relations with Russia, China, and India, attempting to maximize its own interests. This case will provide a reference for other Central Asian countries in handling relations with external powers.