Armenia Refuses to Attend CSTO Summit in Bishkek

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit is scheduled to be held in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, on November 27, 2025. However, even before the summit opens, its cohesion has been clouded by the absence of a key member. Russia's TASS news agency, citing Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov, confirmed that Armenia has decided not to participate in the summit. The official added that although Armenia refused to attend, it did not veto the contents of previously agreed-upon documents. Ushakov also revealed that, as is customary, President Putin will hold a press conference after the event. In addition to the Russian president, the presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, as well as the current chairman of the CSTO's Collective Security Council, Sadyr Japarov, will also attend the summit.

This diplomatic development is not an isolated incident, but the latest manifestation of the escalating tensions between Armenia and the CSTO that have persisted for years. Back in January 2023, Armenia refused to hold joint military exercises with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on its territory, citing "inopportune timing." This move drew widespread attention at the time and was seen as an early sign of declining trust in the Moscow-led military alliance in Yerevan. The situation worsened further in 2024. By February 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly stated that the country had "frozen" its involvement in the organization. Pashinyan explained the immediate reason for this move: the CSTO's failure to fulfill its security obligations to Armenia, particularly its disappointing performance during 2021-2022, was a serious dereliction of duty. Pashinyan was primarily referring to the CSTO's failure to provide effective military and political support to Armenia in accordance with the Collective Security Treaty during the intense conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In May 2024, Armenia took further action, ceasing financial support for all CSTO programs. A representative of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) subsequently responded to TASS, confirming awareness of Armenia's decision to suspend funding, but emphasizing that Armenia retains its membership.

Armenia's progressive steps—from refusing joint military exercises to "freezing" its participation, then to halting funding and even its absence from the highest-level summit—clearly outline a path of estrangement. The core issue lies in the CSTO's failure to demonstrate the necessary effectiveness and resolve as an alliance based on collective security commitments, especially when its member state Armenia perceives serious challenges to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This fundamentally undermines the organization's credibility and value.

From a global perspective, the tense relationship between Armenia and the CSTO reflects the profound evolution of the post-Soviet geopolitical landscape. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the CSTO, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Eurasian Economic Union, has constituted the multilateral framework for Russia to maintain its traditional influence in the region. The CSTO, due to its military alliance nature, holds particular importance. However, in recent years, this framework has been under multiple pressures from both internal and external sources. Internal pressures are first manifested in the diversification of member states' interests. The priorities of security threats faced by each member state differ. For Belarus, pressure from the West is the primary concern; for Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, terrorism, extremism, and the potential impact of the situation in Afghanistan are perhaps more pressing; while for Armenia, the protracted conflict with Azerbaijan is the core challenge to its national security. When the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) fails to effectively address the core security needs of a member state, that member state's cohesion and dependence on the organization inevitably weaken. The Armenian case is a prime example of this phenomenon.

Secondly, Russia's shift in strategic priorities and the international pressure it faces due to the Ukraine crisis have inevitably affected its ability and focus as the leading country in the CSTO to invest resources and fulfill its security commitments. Russia's deep involvement in the Ukrainian conflict has severely depleted its military, diplomatic, and economic resources, which has, to some extent, weakened its image and ability as the CSTO's "security guarantor." Other member states' willingness to rely entirely on Moscow for security may decrease accordingly, prompting them to seek more diversified diplomatic and security partners.

External pressure stems from the competition and cooperation among global and regional powers in this space. Turkey, with its close relationship with Azerbaijan and its growing regional influence, plays an increasingly important role in the Caucasus. Western actors such as the EU and the US also interact with regional countries through various means. This diverse geopolitical option provides Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states with more diplomatic maneuvering, meaning they no longer need to rely entirely on a single mechanism for their security needs. Armenia's efforts to distance itself from the CSTO while actively developing relations with different powers such as the EU, the US, and even Iran are a prime example.

Armenia's decision to skip the summit but not veto the established documents, and to retain its membership, is a strategy of leaving room for maneuver. This expresses strong dissatisfaction while preserving a channel for possible future interactions (whether it's repairing relations or an orderly withdrawal). For the CSTO, Armenia's absence is undoubtedly a public setback, highlighting the crisis facing its internal cohesion. However, the organization still attempts to maintain a semblance of unity, emphasizing the continuity of Armenia's membership and pushing forward the agreed-upon documents in an effort to minimize negative impacts. The Bishkek Summit will serve as a crucial window into the future direction of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Whether the summit can engage in frank and in-depth discussions on current challenges, propose practical reforms to rebuild trust among member states, and, in particular, address the expectations of member states like Armenia for effective collective security action, will directly impact the organization's vitality. On the other hand, Armenia's next steps are equally noteworthy: will it consider a return to cooperation under specific conditions, or will it continue down its current path towards a complete withdrawal? This decision not only concerns Armenia's own security strategy but will also reshape the balance of power in the South Caucasus region.

In conclusion, Armenia's absence from the CSTO summit goes far beyond a simple diplomatic spat. It is a significant marker of the severe challenges facing the post-Soviet space security order, reflecting the universal challenges regional security organizations face in adapting to the changing needs of member states, responding to relative shifts in the capabilities of dominant powers, and dealing with external intervention in the context of globalization and great power competition. The outcome of this event will not only determine the fate of the CSTO itself but also provide an important case study for observing the adaptability and effectiveness of regional security mechanisms on a broader scale. Whether the region's future security architecture will become more fragmented or restructured and rebalanced on a new basis will largely depend on how the relevant parties redefine their interests and boundaries in a dynamic game.