Armenia and Russia have publicly broken ties; the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus is set to be reshaped

On April 7, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, in a national address, accused Russia of failing to fulfill its security commitments after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and announced that the country's foreign policy direction would be decided by a national referendum, marking the official public breakdown of the decades-long alliance between Russia and Armenia and a major adjustment in the geopolitical pattern of the South Caucasus.

The breakdown stems from the collapse of trust after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia was once a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), highly dependent on Russia for energy and security. However, during the 2022-2023 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Russia and the CSTO did not intervene at Armenia's request, leading to the flight of more than 100,000 people, which became the key to the breakdown of bilateral relations.

On April 1, Pashinyan held a "showdown" meeting with Putin, and their differences were completely made public. Pashinyan accused Russia of "betraying its commitments" and emphasized national sovereignty and independence; Putin warned that Armenia could not join both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union and threatened to cancel the low-price natural gas subsidy. In response, Pashinyan stated that dual citizens would be barred from running in the June parliamentary elections, cutting off Russia's agent channels in Armenia.

On April 7, Pashinyan escalated the confrontation, stating that the Russia-Armenia alliance was "in name only". He announced that a referendum on the foreign policy direction and withdrawal from Russia-led alliances would be held by the end of 2026, and that Armenia would immediately withdraw from the alliances if Russia raised gas prices. He also clearly stated that Armenia would deepen cooperation with the United States and the EU, promote the process of joining the EU, and advance the development of the Zangezur Corridor.

Russia quickly retaliated, threatening to cancel the gas price subsidy — currently, Russia supplies Armenia with natural gas at $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters (the European market price exceeds $600), and Armenia relies on Russia for 85% of its natural gas supply. At the same time, Russia plans to tighten bilateral trade, suspend direct flights, and strengthen cooperation with Azerbaijan and Georgia to isolate Armenia.

Armenia is simultaneously advancing the "de-Russification" process: in the security field, it is expelling Russian military advisors and introducing US-EU assistance; in the energy field, it is negotiating diversified supplies and seeking EU funding to renovate nuclear power plants; in the internal affairs field, it is arresting pro-Russian figures, reducing the use of Russian, and introducing EU-standard courses.

Analysts believe that the Russia-Armenia breakdown has significantly weakened Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, and the CSTO is almost in name only; the United States and the EU will take this opportunity to penetrate, promote relevant cooperation to cut off Russia's control over the region; Armenia's "de-Russification and integration into the EU" faces multiple challenges such as energy supply and sanctions. In the follow-up, Armenia's parliamentary elections in June, the referendum at the end of 2026, and the implementation of Russia's retaliatory measures will become key variables affecting the regional situation.